Entering 2017, the USD had been up four years running on a broad trade-weighted basis with 8.6% gains in 2014, 10.7% appreciation in 2015 and a more modest 3.0% move in 2016. That last year was a less dramatic move but from May 2nd lows to the 15+ year peak on January 7th, the buck was up almost 9.3% or 14.5% at an annual pace.

Unfortunately for greenback bulls, things have gone wildly off-script since. The dollar has reversed its entire May 2016-January 2017 rally in a move that’s frankly shocked the FX world. As shown below, for the broad trade weight dollar this was the worst year on record through last Friday (latest data available) and the route has gotten worse this week with the Bloomberg USD Index (a decent proxy for the USD broad trade-weighted index) down a whopping 1.5% this week, its worst since the 5 days ending May 19th. Given that US economic data has actually held up quite well and there have been no radical policy shifts from the FOMC, that’s a pretty staggering move.

On a narrow major currency basis, the USD is just as weak. As shown below, this was the worst YTD through September 1st since 1986 (the year following the Plaza Accord agreement to devalue the USD) and the second-worst ever after this week’s decline, besting the 10% devaluation of the dollar engineered in 1973. Again, the contrast between the surging dollar post-election and the strong USD environment that prevailed for years before that event has been incredible: the dollar just won’t stop falling after it wouldn’t stop rising for years.

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Below is an updated snapshot of home price trends for major cities/regions around the US.  Using S&P/Case-Shiller data, the first table below shows the most recent month-over-month and year-over-year percentage change in median home prices.

As you can see, Detroit and Seattle saw the biggest month-over-month jumps most recently, followed by Las Vegas, Minneapolis, and Portland.  Atlanta, Tampa and Miami saw the smallest gains, but they were gains nonetheless.

On a year-over-year basis, Seattle (thank you Amazon!) home prices are up the most at +13.39%.  Behind Seattle is its neighbor to the south, Portland, with a gain of 8.17%.  Dallas, Denver, Detroit, and San Diego saw 7%+ gains as well.

Nationwide, median home prices are up 5.77% year-over-year.

Below is a look at how much home prices are up compared to their low points following the housing crash of the mid to late 2000s.  The composite indices are all up 45-50% from their lows, while San Francisco is up by far the most of any city with a gain of 106%.  Las Vegas, Detroit, and Seattle rank 2nd through 4th, and Portland rounds out the top five with a gain of 72% off its lows.

On the weak side, New York and Cleveland have seen median home prices rise the least off their housing crash low points at just over 20%.

Along with looking at bounces off the lows, we can also look at how far away each city is from its housing bubble high.  Here we take the high point in prices that were seen during the bubble of the mid-2000s and compare them to current home price levels.  Any city with a positive reading has prices that have already moved above their prior bubble highs, while any city with a negative reading still has to make further gains to get back to even.  Denver and Dallas are already well above their prior housing bubble highs at 40%+.  Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Boston, Charlotte, and Atlanta are the remaining cities that have eclipsed their prior highs.  On the down side, even though Las Vegas is up 80% off its housing crash lows, it’s still 31% below its housing bubble highs.  That shows you just how big the Las Vegas bubble (and burst) was.

Below we show median home price charts from S&P/Case Shiller going back to 1989 for all of the major cities that are tracked.  Cities shaded in green are at new highs.  Note that the National reading is also at a new high, having recently surpassed its prior housing bubble levels.

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