The Closer – Momentum Mess, Drawdown, Job Postings – 7/1/26
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- With massive rotation today, the best-performing decile of Russell 1,000 stocks from last quarter collapsed 2.98% while the bottom three deciles were all up over 1%.
- Crude oil inventories have reached multi-decade lows and when excluding strategic reserves, inventories are at the lowest levels since 2018.
- Job postings data from Indeed has recently diverged from the recent move high in JOLTS job openings.
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 7/1/26
Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: FactSet (FDS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers FactSet’s (FDS) Q3 2026 earnings call.
FactSet (FDS) sells financial data, research tools, and portfolio software to asset managers, banks, and other large financial institutions. Its platform reaches nearly 250,000 users and serves 95 of the top 100 asset managers and more than 85% of the top 50 global investment banks, giving investors insight into institutional spending, market-data demand, financial-industry technology adoption, and the changing way investment professionals work. FactSet’s growth picked up again, with annual subscription value (ASV) rising 7.1% to $2.48 billion across every region and customer group. AI is becoming a measurable driver of sales as more than 10% of the quarter’s growth came directly from AI products, and clients using FactSet’s AI tools are growing their spending faster than the rest of the customer base. Demand for its MCP data connections also jumped, with usage reaching 13 times the prior quarter’s level. The company is also moving customers away from simple per-user licenses and into broader, longer-term contracts that cover more data and services. In reaction to better-than-expected results, shares of FDS rose more than 5% on 7/1…
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Bespoke Market Calendar — July 2026
Please click the image below to view our July 2026 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases.Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Constellation Brands (STZ)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Constellation Brands’ (STZ) Q1 2027 earnings call.
Constellation Brands (STZ) is a major producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits, best known in the US for Modelo Especial, Corona, Pacifico, and other popular brands. Its premium portfolio and heavy exposure to Hispanic beer consumers make the company a useful read on discretionary spending, social drinking occasions, pricing, and changing preferences across alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. Beer shipments rose 1.8%, helping beer gross margin reach 39%, but management described an unusually volatile demand environment. Strong March spending weakened after average US gas prices rose more than 50%, or roughly $1.60 per gallon, before modestly improving as fuel pressure eased. Hispanic communities remained weaker than the general population, while Texas and Florida lagged, and California improved. STZ is responding with smaller and larger pack formats to serve a “K-shaped” consumer and heavier World Cup and football marketing. Modelo still has meaningful brand awareness and distribution gaps, while Corona needs more everyday activation rather than broader availability. Corona Non-Alcoholic is growing at a double-digit rate and has become the category’s fourth-largest brand, while Chelada would rank as the third-largest RTD (Ready-to-Drink) business if classified separately. While revenue fell 3.3% YoY, results on the top and bottom lines beat estimates. Shares are down 2% on 7/1…
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June 2026 Headlines
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/1/26 – A Party of One
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Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime yesterday after the close to discuss the first half performance and trends to look for in the second half. To view the segment, click on the image below. Paul will also be appearing on CNBC’s Power Lunch today at 2 PM.
Equity futures are kicking off the new half with modest losses. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% while the Nasdaq is down 0.5%. Treasury yields are seeing a sizable uptick, with the 10-year yield up 7 basis points to 4.49%. Crude oil is fractionally lower and below $70 per barrel, while gold is fractionally higher and Bitcoin is marginally lower.
In Asia, markets started the quarter mixed, with the Nikkei gaining 0.6% as the yen weakened to 40+ year lows. China was also slightly higher, while South Korea declined by 2% as memory stocks showed weakness at the start of the quarter. In terms of regional economic data, manufacturing PMI indices were generally weaker than expected.
In Europe, stocks are mostly lower to start the month, but again, the losses are modest with the STOXX 600 trading down just 0.3%. Manufacturing PMIs were mixed, but the flash CPI for June unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m, versus forecasts of a 0.1% increase.
On the economic calendar, we’ll get Manufacturing PMIs from S&P and ISM at 9:45 and 10, and the June ADP employment report just hit the tape with a weaker-than-expected print. While economists expected an increase of 120K jobs, the actual increase was just 98K. While weaker than expected, a miss that small relative to expectations will do little to upend the theme of an improved labor market.
In central bank news, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, along with ECB President Lagarde, in Sintra, Portugal, later this morning.
As we start a new month and quarter, we’d be remiss if we didn’t point out how unique the second quarter was in terms of sector performance. While the S&P 500 rallied nearly 15%, the only sector that generated any alpha and outperformed the index was Technology, and boy did it ever outperform as it more than doubled the gain of the S&P 500. Behind Technology, Industrials came close to the S&P 500 but finished just short with a gain of 14.5%.
Outside of these two sectors, no other sector even rallied more than 10%, and three sectors – Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Energy – all finished down for the quarter. That’s not particularly good if your portfolio is concentrated in those three sectors, but when the market rallies, it’s exactly the defensive sectors like these that you would expect to underperform.
While there was very little in the way of sector breadth during the quarter, on a year-to-date basis, performance has been more balanced. As shown in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is up just under 10%, Industrials, Technology, and Energy all gained nearly double that, while Materials and Real Estate also outperformed. To the downside, Consumer Discretionary and Financials are the only two sectors in the hole for the year. If the economy continues to show signs of improvement in the second half, it would be hard to imagine these two sectors continuing to remain in the red.
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Chart of the Day: Biotech Cup and Handle
The Closer – Record Setting Quarter, College Grads, Jobs – 6/30/26
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- It was a historic quarter for equities that included the second best return of the past quarter century for the NASDAQ 100 and the best quarter on record for the semis.
- Data from the New York Fed showed that rising unemployment rates for recent college grads have long pre-dated AI.
- May job openings data reported by the BLS came in much stronger than expected and counter to the past few months moves in alternative data sources.
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