B.I.G. Tips – Sector Weights – July 2025
The Carvana (CVNA) Comeback
Even if you’ve been following markets for decades, you’ve likely never seen anything as crazy as the comeback that online used-car company Carvana (CVNA) has experienced in the last couple of years. Big stocks like Netflix (NFLX) and Meta (META) saw massive drawdowns of 75%+ during the bear market of 2021 and 2022, but Carvana (CVNA) was on another level with a decline of 99% from a peak of $370/share to its closing low of $3.72 made on 12/27/22.
As shown below, a stock that falls 70% needs to gain 233% to get back to even. That’s a tall task, but it at least seems do-able. A stock that falls 99%, however, needs to gain 9,900% to get back to even. That seems downright impossible!
Below is a price chart of Carvana (CVNA) over the last five years. As of today, with the stock currently up 17% on earnings to $393/share, CVNA has not only fully recovered its 99% drawdown, but it has also eclipsed its prior highs. In less than three years, the stock has gained 10,460%! Maybe you have, but we’ve never seen any recovery quite this remarkable.
Bespoke’s Matrix of Economic Indicators – 7/31/25
Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum. We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Meta Platforms (META)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Meta Platforms’ (META) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Meta Platforms (META) is a powerhouse in social networking, digital advertising, and immersive technology. It owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads, serving over 3.4 billion daily users with communication, content discovery, and commerce tools. It also operates Reality Labs, developing AR/VR devices like Meta Quest and AI-powered smart glasses in partnership with Ray-Ban and Oakley, pushing toward a future of AI-integrated wearables and spatial computing. Meta’s Q2 2025 call highlighted growing AI ambition, strong ad performance, and aggressive infrastructure expansion. The company formed Meta Superintelligence Labs and plans to scale Llama models, with Prometheus (its gigawatt-scale AI cluster) coming online next year. Ad conversions rose 5% on Instagram and 3% on Facebook, driven by new models like GEM and Lattice. Threads now uses LLMs for content ranking, while Meta AI exceeded 1 billion monthly users, with WhatsApp leading usage. CapEx for 2025 was raised to $66–$72B, and 2026 CapEx is set to surge again. Glasses and messaging saw growing traction, but Meta warned of possible “significant” European ad revenue hits due to regulatory changes. The triple play earnings pushed the stock $12 higher on 7/31…
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New York and Chicago On Top
The latest monthly data on home prices was published earlier this week from S&P CoreLogic’s Case Shiller indices. Case Shiller indices are published on a two-month lag, but they break down price levels across twenty major cities around the country.
Below is a look at the latest data. Seventeen of twenty cities were up month-over-month, with many cities up more than 1%: Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, Charlotte, and Cleveland. The three cities that were down m/m were Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami.
On a year-over-year basis, the national reading came in at +2.25%, but there’s quite a bit of disparity across cities. Tampa, Dallas, San Francisco, and Denver are actually down year-over-year, while New York and Chicago are up 6%+. New York is actually up the most of any city tracked over the last year with home price gains of 7.4%.
Exactly half of the twenty cities tracked hit new all-time highs in May. San Francisco is the city where prices are down the most from their highs at -7.7%.
Back in 2022 and early 2023, we saw a dip in home prices after seeing a huge post-COVID surge in 2020 and 2021. Since that dip, though, prices nationally have rallied roughly 13%. The two cities that have seen the biggest rallies since their 2023 lows are Chicago and New York, which are both up more than 20%.
In terms of prices, given their y/y readings and their gains since early 2023, New York and Chicago have been the hottest markets in the last couple of years. Conversely, the West Coast and Southeast have seen the most weakness.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/31/25 – You’ve Come a Long Way
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“’Deserves’ is an impossible thing to decide. No one deserves anything.” – Milton Friedman
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With the Fed and the Ms of the mega-caps behind us, we’re just about halfway through what has been a monster week of economic, earnings, and Federal Reserve data. Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 0.4% for the week, which wasn’t that bad. If you take into account the overnight gains that followed the monster earnings from Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), though, we’re up about 0.5%, which is pretty good.
Futures are sharply higher this morning following positive earnings reports from the megacaps. Today and tomorrow will provide a lot more economic data to deal with, though. This morning, it’s Personal Income and Spending, PCE, and jobless claims, while tomorrow’s focus will be the Non-Farm Payrolls report. On the earnings front, it’s the As turn tonight with Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) on the calendar, so we’ll see if they can keep the positive streak alive.
Despite the positive overnight action in equity futures, Chinese stocks were down sharply, with declines of over 1% while Japan was up 1%. The rally in Japan followed a BoJ rate decision where rates were left unchanged. In Europe, the tone is also mixed with the STOXX down fractionally.
Yesterday, we mentioned that a number of commentators were pointing to negative reactions in the stocks of PayPal (PYPL), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), United Parcel Service (UPS), and Whirlpool (WHR) as a potential red flag for the economy. We thought those concerns were misplaced, given that these stocks have been disasters in terms of their performance over the last five years. On a combined basis, they also have a market cap of just $156 billion.
Last night, we got reports from Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT). META has a market cap of more than 10 times the four stocks mentioned yesterday, while MSFT’s market cap is more than 20 times larger. As shown in the chart below, both stocks have also been a much better representation of the economy over the last five years.
In the case of META, it’s hard to believe how far this stock has come since its bear market lows less than three years ago. Think about this for a second. At its low on 11/3/22, META closed at $88.91 per share, and earlier this morning, shares were up $86. In other words, META was up almost as much overnight as its entire share price was at the low in November 2022.
Given the massive rally in META, it’s not a big leap to conclude that it has been one of the top-performing stocks since its low in November 2022. As shown on the table below, taking early morning gains into account, the stock is up nearly 780% which is only enough to rank as the fourth-best performing stock during that time. Palantir (PLTR) tops the list with a gain of over 1,800% followed by Nvidia (NVDA) at 1,261%, and then Vistra (VST) with its gain of 805%. Even after rallying 777%, META is still underperforming a Utility stock!
On a final note, while META and MSFT are on pace for big gains today, watch how they trade intraday. Earlier this week, we saw Boeing (BA) rally on good news at the open only to sell off intraday. That’s not a pattern bulls want to see becoming a trend!
The Closer – FOMC, AI Capex Ramps, GDP – 7/30/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, it’s a jam-packed report that kicks off with a look at the huge swing in copper prices in addition to the latest central bank decisions here in the US and North of the Border (page 1). We also check in on the market’s reaction to today’s FOMC meeting (page 2). Next, we show the dollar’s turnaround (page 3) before pivoting over to earnings recaps that include those of Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) (pages 4 and 5). We finish with a rundown on GDP (pages 6 and 7).
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Caesars Entertainment’s (CZR) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is one of the largest casino and hospitality companies in the U.S., operating more than 50 properties under iconic brands like Caesars Palace, Harrah’s, and Horseshoe. The company combines brick-and-mortar gaming, lodging, dining, and live entertainment with a fast-growing digital platform that includes sports betting and iCasino. With over 60 million loyalty members in Caesars Rewards, the company offers deep insight into U.S. consumer travel, discretionary spending, and digital gambling trends. Known for strategic reinvestment and capital-light brand expansion, Caesars serves domestic leisure travelers, regional casino guests, and online gaming customers, while leveraging a vast customer database across both physical and digital channels. Las Vegas softness persisted into Q3, driven by short booking windows and weaker international visitation, but management expects a record group room calendar in Q4 and 2026….
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 7/30/25
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Wingstop (WING)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Wingstop’s (WING) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Wingstop (WING) is a fast-growing, asset-light restaurant franchisor specializing in cooked-to-order chicken wings, chicken sandwiches, and tenders served in 12 bold flavors. With a digital-forward model and over 3,000 global locations, the company serves flavor-craving consumers across the U.S. and international markets like the UK, France, and Australia. Known for its high franchise returns and digital penetration, Wingstop offers insight into QSR innovation, franchise development economics, and flavor-led menu strategy. Its rapid global expansion and investments in technology, like the proprietary “Wingstop Smart Kitchen,” position it as one of the most operationally efficient players in the industry. Wingstop’s Q2 2025 earnings highlighted aggressive expansion and operational transformation. The company opened a record 129 net new restaurants in the quarter and raised full-year unit growth guidance to 17–18%, aiming for 435–460 global openings. The rollout of its Smart Kitchen platform to 1,000 stores cut ticket times by 40% and improved delivery times enough to enter the sub-30-minute filter on third-party apps. The relaunch of crispy tenders tripled lapsed guest reactivations, and the loyalty program pilot launches in Q4. Management cited macro pressure on lower-income consumers but expects easing comps to drive comp recovery in Q3…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for WING by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: