Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/25/25 – Complacency?
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“When you’re good at something, you’ll tell everyone. When you’re great at something, they’ll tell you.” – Walter Payton
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures are sitting on modest gains as the S&P 500 looks to close out the week with a 1% gain. The S&P 500 has traded higher every day this week, and the number of record closing highs is starting to pile up with 13 on the year so far. That’s nowhere near last year’s total of over 50, but considering where the market was three months ago, it’s impressive to say the least.
While US equity futures hang onto positive territory, Asian stocks finished in the red even as the Nikkei started off the session at new highs. The reversal stemmed from concerns over a more aggressive BoJ. European stocks are also firmly in negative territory, with the STOXX 600 down about 0.5%. Outside of equities, energy commodities are modestly higher, while metals prices are lower across the board. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both lower. It’s also worth pointing out that Bitcoin is now down near $116,000 after hitting a high of $123,000 eleven days ago.
The pace of earnings so far this month has been positive, economic data has been hanging in there, and we’re even starting to get some sense of clarity on tariffs, so you can’t fault investors for being optimistic. Today, we’ll get a bit of a break from the data, though, as the earnings and economic calendars are relatively light, but you never know when the President will drop a tariff-related headline.
While there’s not a lot of economic data today, we wanted to take a moment to look back at yesterday’s initial jobless claims report, which came in weaker than expected and declined on a week-over-week basis for the sixth time in a row. As shown in the chart below, this was just the 11th streak of six or more weekly declines. Of those prior ten streaks, only four were longer, with just one stretching more than seven weeks. That record was the 13-week stretch coming out of the Covid lockdowns. We also included shading to indicate recessions, and you typically don’t see these kinds of streaks leading up to the onset of a recession.
The market has been treading a steady path higher over the last several weeks, and one place the lack of volatility has shown up is in the VIX. This week, it dropped below 16 to its lowest levels since 2/19. That was right at the peak before the tariff-takedown, so it’s only natural to wonder if there’s a sense of complacency setting in.
The Closer – More Earnings, AI Laggards, ECB – 7/24/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a review of the latest earnings including a luxury name and some AI basket members (pages 1 and 2), we review the performance of some AI adjacent stocks that have lagged behind (page 3). Next, we turn over to European rates (page 4) and finish with recaps of the latest economic data including flash PMIs (page 5) and new home sales (page 6).
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Chart of the Day: Squeezed
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Alphabet (GOOGL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is the parent company of Google and a global leader in internet services, digital advertising, AI innovation, cloud infrastructure, and consumer technology. Its products, ranging from Google Search and YouTube to Android, Chrome, and Google Cloud, serve billions of users and millions of businesses worldwide. With deep investments in AI models (like Gemini), autonomous driving via Waymo, and custom silicon (TPUs), it stands at the forefront of applied machine learning. The company delivered a strong Q2 with 14% revenue growth to $96.4B, driven by strength in Search, YouTube, Cloud, and AI subscriptions. Search queries surged, helped by new AI tools like AI Overviews and AI Mode. YouTube Shorts hit 200B daily views, with Shorts now monetizing at parity, or better, than in-stream ads in some regions. Cloud revenues grew 32%, with a record $106B backlog, though capacity remains constrained. AI was central throughout the call. Gemini usage grew 35x YoY, and token processing doubled to 980 trillion/month. CapEx was raised to $85B for the year to meet AI infrastructure demand. GOOGL shares opened 3.5% higher on 7/24 in reaction to its results…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Chipotle (CMG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Chipotle’s (CMG) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Chipotle (CMG) is a fast-casual restaurant chain known for its customizable burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads made with fresh, responsibly sourced ingredients. With over 3,400 locations across the US, Canada, and select international markets, Chipotle blends classic culinary methods with a highly efficient operating model. Chipotle’s Q2 saw 3% revenue growth to $3.1B but a 4% comp sales decline, as traffic weakened in May before rebounding in June and July. Management blamed low consumer confidence and a tougher value landscape, but emphasized successful marketing campaigns (Summer of Extras) and strong product launches like Adobo Ranch. Back-of-house upgrades, including a full rollout of produce slicers and a new equipment package, are expected to improve prep efficiency and expand catering. Internationally, locations in Kuwait are now outperforming US averages. CMG reported weaker revenue on in-line EPS, putting the stock in reverse, down close to 14% on 7/24…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Tesla (TSLA)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Tesla’s (TSLA) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Tesla (TSLA) designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles, energy storage products, solar energy systems, and AI-powered software like Full Self-Driving (FSD). Its lineup includes the Model S, 3, X, Y, Cybertruck, and energy solutions like Powerwall and Megapack. Tesla is widely regarded as a pioneer in real-world AI, autonomous driving, and EV innovation. It serves global consumers and commercial clients, while also pushing into areas like humanoid robotics (Optimus) and chip development (Dojo, AI5). Tesla’s call centered around autonomy. The company officially launched its Robotaxi service in Austin and expects to expand to half the US population by year-end. FSD subscriptions rose 25% post-Version 12, though many owners still haven’t tried it. Musk confirmed production of Optimus 3 humanoid robots will begin early 2026, targeting 1 million units annually within five years. AI infrastructure also took focus. Tesla plans to deploy Dojo 2 at 100,000 H100-equivalent scale and roll out the powerful AI5 chip next year. Meanwhile, tariffs and the repeal of the US EV credit are pressuring margins, prompting a near-term affordability push. Musk suggested that the next few quarters could be “rough.” EPS results were in line with estimates and revenue beat estimates, though both figures fell YoY. The stock fell about 9% on 7/24…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/25/25 – Who Needs Harvard?
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“Don’t confuse schooling with education. I didn’t go to Harvard, but the people that work for me did.” – Elon Musk
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a mixed picture for US equities this morning, as Dow futures are poised to open down by about 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are indicated to be higher. Helping to drive the gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) are up over 3% after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and sales. To the downside, Tesla (TSLA), another trillion-dollar stock, or at least as of the close yesterday, is down 6% after CEO Elon Musk warned of “a few rough quarters” ahead.
The mixed picture for US stocks follows a positive session in Asia, where the Nikkei rallied over 1.5% while Chinese stocks also finished the session in positive territory as trade deals start to emerge. European equities were also positive on prospects of trade deals ahead of the August 1 deadline. Flash PMI readings for July came in roughly in line with expectations. The ECB also announced its latest policy decision, and as expected, there was no change in rates.
Turning back to the US, another CEO, like Elon Musk, who didn’t go to Harvard, is the current Starbucks (SBUX) CEO and former Chipotle (CMG) CEO Brian Niccol. Since it was announced that the Miami University (Ohio) alum would be leaving Chipotle for Starbucks, the former’s stock has had a rough go, and its four earnings reports since then haven’t been particularly positive either.
After the close yesterday, CMG reported inline EPS on weaker-than-expected revenues. The revenue miss was the fourth straight time it missed top-line expectations, and the stock is on pace to gap down close to 10% at the open this morning. Besides the four straight sales misses, CMG will have now gapped down 5%+ in reaction to three of its last four earnings reports.
Including this morning’s decline, shares of CMG are down over 15% since it was announced that Niccol would be leaving the company. Over that same period, the S&P 500 is up over 18%. All of this also comes after the stock rallied more than 1,000% during Niccol’s tenure as CEO. Whether all of CMG’s problems are a result of Niccol’s departure or he saw the writing on the wall could be up for debate, but his timing was impeccable, further burnishing his reputation. He came into the company just as it was reeling from food safety incidents in 2018, and while he didn’t get out right at the top, he didn’t miss it by much.
The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer compares CMG to other restaurant stocks in the S&P 500. As of the close yesterday, stocks in CMG’s peer group were all up on the year, but CMG was down well over 10%, and that doesn’t even take into account this morning’s weakness.
Looking at the charts of all six stocks, CMG is also an outlier as no other stock in its group is closer to a 52-week low. SBUX is the second furthest from a 52-week high, so Niccol’s magic doesn’t appear to be coming through just yet.
Speaking of SBUX, the stock has been stuck in a range for the last five years. Just as it was announced nearly a year ago that Niccol would be taking over the company, SBUX was testing the low end of its multi-year range. Since then, the stock has rallied 25%, which is modestly better than the S&P 500, but outside of a brief period earlier this year, the downtrend from its post-COVID high remains intact. Since it was announced that Niccol would be taking over as CEO last August, SBUX has reported weaker-than-expected EPS and revenues in two of the last three quarters, so his move to the CEO seat has yet to show any meaningful impact on results, but the next opportunity will be next Tuesday.
The Closer – Meme Stocks, GOOGL & TSLA, Delinquencies – 7/23/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with another check in on the performance of meme stocks in addition to recent IPOs (page 1). After reviewing the latest earnings including results from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and more (pages 2 and 3), we review today’s existing home sales data (page 4). We finish with a look into credit card delinquencies (page 5).
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: General Dynamics (GD)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers General Dynamics’s (GD) Q2 2025 earnings call.
General Dynamics (GD) is a global aerospace and defense company that designs, builds, and supports advanced military systems and business aviation solutions. Its operations span four segments: Aerospace (Gulfstream and Jet Aviation), Marine Systems (submarines and surface ships), Combat Systems (armored vehicles, weapons, and munitions), and Technologies (IT services and mission-critical defense tech). The company serves the U.S. Department of Defense, allied governments, and corporate clients worldwide. Known for its long-cycle visibility and execution-focused culture, General Dynamics provides deep insight into defense modernization, national security infrastructure, and the global demand for secure mobility and digital capabilities. General Dynamics delivered a strong Q2, beating EPS expectations and $13B in revenue (+8.9% YoY). The quarter featured a record $28B in orders and $103.7B in backlog, led by a surge in Marine Systems contracts. Gulfstream delivered 38 jets, including 15 G700s, and will soon begin G800 deliveries, though lower-margin mix will pressure near-term Aerospace margins. General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT) showed solid performance despite slower adjudications, while Combat Systems saw strength in European demand and munitions ramp-up…
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