New York and Chicago On Top
The latest monthly data on home prices was published earlier this week from S&P CoreLogic’s Case Shiller indices. Case Shiller indices are published on a two-month lag, but they break down price levels across twenty major cities around the country.
Below is a look at the latest data. Seventeen of twenty cities were up month-over-month, with many cities up more than 1%: Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, Charlotte, and Cleveland. The three cities that were down m/m were Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami.
On a year-over-year basis, the national reading came in at +2.25%, but there’s quite a bit of disparity across cities. Tampa, Dallas, San Francisco, and Denver are actually down year-over-year, while New York and Chicago are up 6%+. New York is actually up the most of any city tracked over the last year with home price gains of 7.4%.
Exactly half of the twenty cities tracked hit new all-time highs in May. San Francisco is the city where prices are down the most from their highs at -7.7%.
Back in 2022 and early 2023, we saw a dip in home prices after seeing a huge post-COVID surge in 2020 and 2021. Since that dip, though, prices nationally have rallied roughly 13%. The two cities that have seen the biggest rallies since their 2023 lows are Chicago and New York, which are both up more than 20%.
In terms of prices, given their y/y readings and their gains since early 2023, New York and Chicago have been the hottest markets in the last couple of years. Conversely, the West Coast and Southeast have seen the most weakness.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/31/25 – You’ve Come a Long Way
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“’Deserves’ is an impossible thing to decide. No one deserves anything.” – Milton Friedman
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With the Fed and the Ms of the mega-caps behind us, we’re just about halfway through what has been a monster week of economic, earnings, and Federal Reserve data. Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 0.4% for the week, which wasn’t that bad. If you take into account the overnight gains that followed the monster earnings from Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), though, we’re up about 0.5%, which is pretty good.
Futures are sharply higher this morning following positive earnings reports from the megacaps. Today and tomorrow will provide a lot more economic data to deal with, though. This morning, it’s Personal Income and Spending, PCE, and jobless claims, while tomorrow’s focus will be the Non-Farm Payrolls report. On the earnings front, it’s the As turn tonight with Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) on the calendar, so we’ll see if they can keep the positive streak alive.
Despite the positive overnight action in equity futures, Chinese stocks were down sharply, with declines of over 1% while Japan was up 1%. The rally in Japan followed a BoJ rate decision where rates were left unchanged. In Europe, the tone is also mixed with the STOXX down fractionally.
Yesterday, we mentioned that a number of commentators were pointing to negative reactions in the stocks of PayPal (PYPL), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), United Parcel Service (UPS), and Whirlpool (WHR) as a potential red flag for the economy. We thought those concerns were misplaced, given that these stocks have been disasters in terms of their performance over the last five years. On a combined basis, they also have a market cap of just $156 billion.
Last night, we got reports from Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT). META has a market cap of more than 10 times the four stocks mentioned yesterday, while MSFT’s market cap is more than 20 times larger. As shown in the chart below, both stocks have also been a much better representation of the economy over the last five years.
In the case of META, it’s hard to believe how far this stock has come since its bear market lows less than three years ago. Think about this for a second. At its low on 11/3/22, META closed at $88.91 per share, and earlier this morning, shares were up $86. In other words, META was up almost as much overnight as its entire share price was at the low in November 2022.
Given the massive rally in META, it’s not a big leap to conclude that it has been one of the top-performing stocks since its low in November 2022. As shown on the table below, taking early morning gains into account, the stock is up nearly 780% which is only enough to rank as the fourth-best performing stock during that time. Palantir (PLTR) tops the list with a gain of over 1,800% followed by Nvidia (NVDA) at 1,261%, and then Vistra (VST) with its gain of 805%. Even after rallying 777%, META is still underperforming a Utility stock!
On a final note, while META and MSFT are on pace for big gains today, watch how they trade intraday. Earlier this week, we saw Boeing (BA) rally on good news at the open only to sell off intraday. That’s not a pattern bulls want to see becoming a trend!
The Closer – FOMC, AI Capex Ramps, GDP – 7/30/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, it’s a jam-packed report that kicks off with a look at the huge swing in copper prices in addition to the latest central bank decisions here in the US and North of the Border (page 1). We also check in on the market’s reaction to today’s FOMC meeting (page 2). Next, we show the dollar’s turnaround (page 3) before pivoting over to earnings recaps that include those of Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) (pages 4 and 5). We finish with a rundown on GDP (pages 6 and 7).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Caesars Entertainment’s (CZR) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is one of the largest casino and hospitality companies in the U.S., operating more than 50 properties under iconic brands like Caesars Palace, Harrah’s, and Horseshoe. The company combines brick-and-mortar gaming, lodging, dining, and live entertainment with a fast-growing digital platform that includes sports betting and iCasino. With over 60 million loyalty members in Caesars Rewards, the company offers deep insight into U.S. consumer travel, discretionary spending, and digital gambling trends. Known for strategic reinvestment and capital-light brand expansion, Caesars serves domestic leisure travelers, regional casino guests, and online gaming customers, while leveraging a vast customer database across both physical and digital channels. Las Vegas softness persisted into Q3, driven by short booking windows and weaker international visitation, but management expects a record group room calendar in Q4 and 2026….
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Wingstop (WING)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Wingstop’s (WING) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Wingstop (WING) is a fast-growing, asset-light restaurant franchisor specializing in cooked-to-order chicken wings, chicken sandwiches, and tenders served in 12 bold flavors. With a digital-forward model and over 3,000 global locations, the company serves flavor-craving consumers across the U.S. and international markets like the UK, France, and Australia. Known for its high franchise returns and digital penetration, Wingstop offers insight into QSR innovation, franchise development economics, and flavor-led menu strategy. Its rapid global expansion and investments in technology, like the proprietary “Wingstop Smart Kitchen,” position it as one of the most operationally efficient players in the industry. Wingstop’s Q2 2025 earnings highlighted aggressive expansion and operational transformation. The company opened a record 129 net new restaurants in the quarter and raised full-year unit growth guidance to 17–18%, aiming for 435–460 global openings. The rollout of its Smart Kitchen platform to 1,000 stores cut ticket times by 40% and improved delivery times enough to enter the sub-30-minute filter on third-party apps. The relaunch of crispy tenders tripled lapsed guest reactivations, and the loyalty program pilot launches in Q4. Management cited macro pressure on lower-income consumers but expects easing comps to drive comp recovery in Q3…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Generac (GNRC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Generac’s (GNRC) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Generac (GNRC) is a manufacturer of backup power generation equipment and energy technology solutions for residential, commercial, and industrial markets. Best known for its home standby generators, Generac also provides portable generators, energy storage systems, and grid services, serving everyone from homeowners in storm-prone regions to hyperscale data centers requiring megawatt-scale power resilience. Its growing presence in the data center and telecom markets, along with recurring revenue streams from smart thermostats (ecobee) and energy monitoring subscriptions, adds depth to its traditional hardware footprint. Generac’s Q2 call highlighted net sales rising 6% to $1.06B and adjusted EBITDA margins improving to 17.7%. The breakout story was Generac’s formal entry into the data center backup power market, driven by AI-related infrastructure needs, already generating a $150M backlog. Residential energy tech impressed, with ecobee turning a profit and shipments into Puerto Rico surging. Home standby sales held steady despite low outages, while portable gens gained retail market share. C&I (Commercial and Industrial) strength was offset by rental market softness. The company is recalibrating clean energy investments as solar incentives fade, aiming to eliminate losses. GNRC shares boomed 20% on 7/30 in reaction to the strong results…
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Top Quotes from Today’s Earnings Calls: 7/30/25
We sifted through earnings calls from the biggest companies that reported since last night’s (7/29) close, looking for some of the most interesting macro-related quotes from management teams that may serve as broader signals about the state of the economy, consumers, and markets. Below are twenty of the most revealing quotes that we pulled from this batch of calls, offering a window into what executives are seeing across industries and geographies right now.
- Visa (V): “The bulk of those [emerging] markets around the world are very cash-rich markets… where we haven’t been as successful digitizing cash as we have in more mature markets. And so to the extent that stablecoins get adopted in a broad-based way by both consumers and businesses, I think that could accelerate our progress digitizing consumer payments and business, small business, and commercial payments in those markets… I do think that there is real product market fit for stablecoins in remittances for certain corridors.” – Ryan McInerney, President, CEO
- Starbucks (SBUX): “Both the tariff environment and coffee prices continue to be dynamic. We continue to mitigate expected tariff exposure outside of green coffee and are pleased to see green coffee prices moderate… moving average coffee costs and coffee tariff impacts lag the market with year-over-year coffee cost increases expected to peak in the first half of fiscal 2026.” – Catherine Smith, CFO
- Mondelez Int’l (MDLZ): “The US is a little bit more of a difficult situation. There’s a lot of consumer anxiety. They look at a quite uncertain outlook as it relates to their personal finances, job expectations, inflation. So they tend to focus more on essential items. The size of the basket is getting very important, absolute price points. There’s channel shifting going on. There’s more promotions and some pack shifting, too.” – Dirk Van de Put, CEO
- Caesars Entertainment (CZR): “I don’t really see anything particularly when we look at the business as a whole, Vegas, Regional and Digital that suggests there’s anything particularly concerning about the consumer… The only thing I could point to… is the international business, particularly Canadian, is softer.” – Thomas Reeg, CEO
- Booking (BKNG): “We see generally top end of the U.S. consumer market will be a little stronger, spending more in the 5-star hotel category, spending more on international travel… At the lower end, more careful behavior… more pressure on the domestic travel, on the lower-star rated hotels.” – Ewout Steenbergen, CFO
- GE HealthCare (GEHC): “One of the things we’ve talked about [in the US] is an aging installed base, particularly in imaging, probably older than many around the world, some of that with the pauses that took place during COVID. So there is a robust replacement cycle… The other aspect is many of the new clinical products that are coming out… are driving the need for advanced cath labs… The other, which is a big obvious one, is the need for productivity. It’s difficult for U.S. hospitals to get staffed. And so equipment that moves the patient swiftly through the institution with a high-quality diagnosis is a very important asset… We haven’t seen any significant pullbacks… even from some of the most recent bills that were passed in Washington.” – Peter Arduini, President, CEO
- Republic Services (RSG): “I mean you think about manufacturing, and this is where trade policy impacts us, which is [that] manufacturers are not making capital decisions, right? Production is slow. You can see that through PMI. Now somewhat optimistic here, we see a recovery of that. But that’s what’s impacted us to date and that we’re forecasting being conservative for the rest of the year.” – Jon Vander Ark, President, CEO
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW): “We saw a significant increase in the number of big orders. Semi, which is a fairly small percentage [of our total revenues], growing double-digits. If you were an optimist, you would say we’re seeing the first encouraging signs that [industrial CapEx] is really working.” – Michael Larsen, CFO
- Bunge Global (BG): “I think the one thing the last five, six years have taught us is the world’s a pretty dynamic place now… China’s very public that they’re focused on food security. So, I think it’s absolutely logical and rational that they continue to build different optionality. And I would say the importation of soy meal is a new option that they’re now developing.” – Greg Heckman, CEO
- UBS (UBS): “As we continue to see strong market performance in risk assets combined with a weak US dollar, investor sentiment remains broadly constructive, albeit tempered by ongoing uncertainties and a degree of news fatigue. Having said that, clients are ready to deploy capital as soon as conviction around the macro outlook strengthens.” – Sergio Ermotti, CEO
- Smurfit Westrock (SW): “We’ve always kind of said that the real impact on the system would be what happened to consumer demand… nothing yet to suggest that demand picture will change very quickly, and we’re certainly not baking that into any of our forecasts. Volume is okay, demand is okay, but could be a whole lot better. And I think as the tariff picture settles in, I think we’ll see where consumer confidence might come back in certain areas that’s been lacking, I think, in the last year or so.” – Ken Bowles, CFO
- Kraft Heinz (KHC): “In terms of inflation before tariffs, we have the peak of the commodities hitting in Q2. But some of that, in terms of P&L recognition, got pushed into Q3. And we should expect some sort of relief starting in Q4. So it should start to reach the inflection point. We still have pockets of high commodity inflation, particularly on coffee.” – Andre Maciel, CFO
- Trane Technologies (TT): “Transport [has] been very volatile. I think we kid ourselves and say we’re in year three of a two-year cycle, or maybe even year four of a two-year down cycle… We do see that ACT is going to come back. We’re looking forward to this coming back in 2026, and we’re going to be ready for it.” – Dave Regnery, CEO
- Automatic Data (ADP): “We are seeing meaningful productivity improvements and opportunities [from our deployment of Generative AI]. Yet, we are able to actually see some operational headcount reduction in those businesses as a result of Generative AI and some of the other like-minded tools. But again, we are still in a net investment position, likely that will continue through this fiscal year.” – Peter Hadley, CFO
- American Electric (AEP): “Texas House Bill 5247… essentially eliminates, further streamlining the regulatory process, and substantially improving the earned ROEs. This is highly supportive of increasing capital allocation [into Texas energy infrastructure]… as we participate in the massive infrastructure build-out needed to drive economic growth in the state.” – Trevor I. Mihalik, CFO
- PPG Industries (PPG): “Any stimulus, any catalyst, whether it be the impact of a tariff agreement, whether we see some progress in Ukraine, whether we see some progress in the Middle East, anything that would give a little bit of consumer confidence in Europe would be a positive… because actually the household balance sheets are pretty strong, generally speaking. So it’s much more about consumer confidence.” – Timothy M. Knavish, CEO
- Avis Budget (CAR): “Over time autonomous vehicles is touching the meatiest part of the mobility ecosystem, which is vehicle miles driven. That opens up a lot of other areas that we can play in as well in terms of expanding our horizons. So right now the core of the business is the rental car business. But as the years progress, I think we can expand our footprint.” – Brian Choi, CEO
- CGI Group (GIB): “I think we’re at the floor, right? I think we’re starting to see an end to [tariffs] or some agreement across our world. And I think when these agreements will be finalized, that will bring to the clients a certainty… and what will be the impact on the economy… I think it will take still a couple of quarters to arrive to that.” – Steve Perron, CFO
- Vertiv Holdings (VRT): “If we think about the US environment, we see a lot of attention from the administration for [data centers and AI infrastructure]… but also my comment was a little bit [intended] towards EMEA, where we see national governments, the EU, but also places like the UK, more aware of the importance and the strategic importance of AI… We believe times will soon be mature for an acceleration in Europe and EMEA.” – Giordano Albertazzi, CEO
- Altria (MO): “Inflation is still an unknown variable going forward. There’s been some green shoots, lower gas prices on a year-over-year basis, even though they remain high. Most recently, we have seen an uptick in consumer confidence. But again, the macroeconomic environment remains dynamic, and somewhat unsettled. Trade deals are still being negotiated, and what potential impact that could have on controllable spending for the consumer is something that we’ll pay close attention to.” – Sal Mancuso, CFO
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Visa (V)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Visa’s (V) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Visa (V) is a payments technology company that connects consumers, merchants, financial institutions, and governments across more than 200 countries and territories. It doesn’t issue cards or extend credit, but enables electronic payments via its network, VisaNet, which securely processes over 260 billion transactions annually. It serves everyone from large banks to fintech startups and small merchants, and increasingly operates in newer arenas like real-time payments, open banking, and blockchain-based stablecoins. Visa reported strong Q3 results with net revenue up 14% YoY to $10.2B and EPS up 23%. Consumer spending remained resilient across income segments, with US e-commerce growing faster than in-store. Cross-border volume (ex-Intra Europe) rose 11%, despite FX headwinds and a weak Canada–US travel corridor. Visa Direct transactions jumped 25%, driven by growing remittance use cases. The company highlighted major progress in AI-driven agentic commerce and stablecoin-based settlement, supporting both as long-term growth pillars. Value-added services revenue surged 26%, helped by risk tools, advisory, and processing partnerships. Incentives rose with elevated client renewals, but pricing power helped offset the impact. Despite better-than-expected results, V shares slipped slightly into the red on 7/30…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Starbucks (SBUX)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Starbucks’ (SBUX) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Starbucks (SBUX) is the world’s largest specialty coffee chain, operating over 38,000 stores globally with a strong presence in North America, China, and other international markets. Starbucks caters to a broad customer base, including millennials, Gen Z, and urban professionals. The company is a leader in digital engagement, with nearly 34 million active rewards members and a top-rated mobile app. Its business spans in-café, drive-thru, digital, and delivery channels. This quarter focused heavily on Starbucks’ US turnaround, centered on the accelerated rollout of the Green Apron Service model, a new operating system showing early success in improving transaction comps and service speed. Despite a 2% global comp decline, China returned to comp growth (+2%) and posted strong delivery and beverage innovation gains. Management also detailed plans for loyalty program upgrades, smaller and more efficient store formats, and a shift toward protein-enhanced beverages and functional food. CEO Brian Niccol emphasized the upcoming innovation wave in 2026 and ongoing search for a strategic partner in China, noting over 20 interested parties. SBUX shares opened 5.7% higher on 7/30 on mixed results, but erased those gains intraday…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Booking (BKNG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Booking’s (BKNG) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Booking (BKNG) is the world’s largest online travel platform, operating global brands like Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable. It facilitates millions of accommodations, flights, car rentals, and restaurant reservations, serving both leisure and business travelers. Its Genius loyalty program and Connected Trip vision (bundling multiple travel components into one seamless booking) position it to drive both engagement and margins. Booking delivered a standout quarter, with room nights up 8%, gross bookings up 13%, and adjusted EPS up 32% YoY. Alternative accommodations grew 10%, outpacing hotels, and the Connected Trip saw 30%+ transaction growth. Asia was the fastest-growing region, while US consumers showed caution via shorter stays and lower ADRs. AI tools like Priceline’s Penny and OpenTable’s Concierge are boosting efficiency and conversion, and direct bookings now exceed 65% of B2C volume. BKNG shares were up less than 1% on 7/30 on EPS and revenue beats…
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