Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/8/25 – Quitters Never Win
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“But the interest of the Nation must always come before any personal considerations.” – Richard Nixon
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
On this day, 51 years ago, President Nixon became the first U.S. president to resign from office. While there are plenty of others that Americans likely wish had also resigned from office since then, Nixon remains the only President to leave office before his term ended, despite saying in his resignation speech that “I have never been a quitter.” As crazy as the political, social, economic, and geopolitical climate feels today, it has nothing on the backdrop from 51 years ago. If you weren’t around then, just ask someone who was.
There’s no shortage of uncertainty or unease in the backdrop today, but equities are within percentage points of record highs, and interest rates are relatively low versus history. This morning specifically, futures are firmly in positive territory on generally positive earnings news overnight. There’s no economic data on the calendar today, and all the earnings for the week are behind us, so unless the President fires up the Truth Social app, we can expect a relatively quiet summer Friday.
In yesterday’s trading, there were many quitters. Stocks opened the day higher and gave up their gains throughout the trading day. On an average basis, stocks in the Russell 1000 declined 0.88% from the open to close. Of the index’s components, 706 closed lower than they opened, and their average decline from the open to closing bell was 1.84%. On the upside, only 306 stocks (there are more than 1,000 stocks in the index) closed higher than they opened, and their average gain was just 1.32%.
One stock that didn’t quit yesterday was Apple (AAPL). It gapped up around 2% and then added on another 1% from the open to close to finish just below its 200-day moving average (DMA), a level it hasn’t traded above since early March. While the stock didn’t quit Thursday, downward-sloping moving averages have a way of acting as resistance, so whether AAPL can close above its 200-DMA to close out the week will say a lot about how strong this latest two-day rally is. Will today be the day that Cook & Co can say to the bears that they won’t have Apple to kick around anymore?
Besides rallying over 8% in the last two days, AAPL also outperformed the S&P 500 by just under 8% since Tuesday’s close, which ranks as one of the strongest two-day rallies relative to the S&P 500 in the last five years. The only two that were stronger were an 11.8 ppt performance spread in early August 2020 after the company reported earnings, and then a 9.3 ppt margin of outperformance after the company’s WWDC conference last summer. Besides those two periods, the only other two-day period of outperformance that was close to the last two days was a 7.5 ppt performance spread following its January report.
The Closer – Reversals, Data Day, Auctions – 8/7/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, it’s a full report that starts off with a look into the intraday reversals experienced today (page 1). We then recap a busy day of macro happenings including productivity and jobless claims (page 2), Fed appointments (page 3), and the 30-year bond auction (page 4). We then pivot over to earnings (pages 4 and 5) before switching back to economic data with recaps of the NY Fed’s consumer survey (pages 6 and 7). We cap off with a look into Treasury allotment data (page 8).
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Zillow (ZG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Zillow’s (ZG) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Zillow (ZG) is a digital real estate platform that connects home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals through a comprehensive suite of tools, listings, and services. Best known for its Zestimate feature and mobile-first experience, Zillow has evolved into a transaction-focused ecosystem, offering mortgage origination through Zillow Home Loans, property management tools, and its agent CRM, Follow Up Boss. It operates the #1 rental and for-sale real estate websites in the US, with an average of 243 million monthly unique users. Zillow reported 15% revenue growth YoY, outperforming a flat housing market, with standout gains in rentals (up 36%) and mortgages (up 41%). Multifamily listings rose 45% to 64,000, supported by expanded distribution via Redfin and Realtor.com. Enhanced markets drove 27% of connections, with Zillow Home Loans adoption in the double digits and expected 40%+ origination growth in Q3. Product innovation was a major theme, including AI-powered agent tools, the immersive SkyTour feature, and the affordability-focused BuyAbility tool. Executives maintained a confident tone on reaching 2025 goals, despite macro housing stagnation and affordability headwinds. ZG shares recorded an up-and-down day on 8/7 after posting mixed results…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Duolingo (DUOL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Duolingo’s (DUOL) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Duolingo (DUOL) is the world’s most popular language-learning platform, offering gamified courses in over 40 languages through its mobile app and website. The company has expanded into adjacent educational verticals like math, music, and, most recently, chess. Duolingo serves a wide global user base, with particularly strong growth among English learners in Asia. Its tiered subscription model, including Super and Max plans, supports both free and paid users. What makes Duolingo stand out is its use of AI to personalize learning experiences at scale and its viral, irreverent brand voice. Duolingo posted another strong quarter, raising full-year guidance on the back of 40% DAU (Daily Active User) growth, an 8% Max subscriber mix, and record profitability. Growth in Asia (especially China, boosted by a Luckin Coffee partnership) was a standout. The company highlighted progress in its new “Energy” system, which has lifted DAUs, revenue, and time spent, while drawing some user backlash. AI-related costs fell as token prices dropped, improving gross margins. Video Call remains the “killer feature” of Max, and the team is adding bilingual dialogue and engagement-based fine-tuning. Social media strategy was reined in after controversial AI remarks, affecting US virality but now stabilizing. The stock was up as much as 31% on 8/7 after the triple play but gave up half of those gains intraday…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Cheniere Energy’s (LNG) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Cheniere Energy (LNG) is the largest producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the United States and a top-five global LNG supplier. Operating major export terminals at Sabine Pass (Louisiana) and Corpus Christi (Texas), Cheniere transforms US shale gas into LNG for delivery to over 45 countries. The company serves utilities, energy companies, and governments, offering flexible, long-term supply contracts that help anchor energy security worldwide. What sets Cheniere apart is its vertically integrated, brownfield-driven growth model, expanding capacity through debottlenecking and modular additions rather than full greenfield builds. The company finalized FID (Final Investment Decision) on Corpus Christi Midscale Trains 8 & 9 and achieved substantial completion of Train 2 in Stage 3. Debottlenecking added about 1 MTPA (Million Tons Per Annum) in capacity at low cost, while a new 1 MTPA long-term contract with JERA (Japan) marked a strategic commercial milestone. Management emphasized robust LNG demand in Europe (up 25% YoY) and a strong long-term outlook in Asia despite short-term softness. LNG shares hovered around flat in 8/7’s session despite stronger-than-expected results…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Uber (UBER)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Uber’s (UBER) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Uber (UBER) is a global mobility and delivery platform that connects consumers to transportation, food, groceries, freight, and increasingly, autonomous vehicles. Its core segments, Mobility and Delivery, serve both everyday consumers and enterprise clients in over 70 countries. The company offers a glimpse into global consumer habits, urban transportation, and the future of autonomous mobility. Uber posted record highs across gross bookings (+18%), trips (+18%), adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, driven by growing audience engagement and platform usage. Only 20% of adults in top markets use Uber monthly, signaling runway ahead. Uber One membership rose 60% YoY to 36 million, fueled by perks like “surge savings.” Autonomous vehicle deployments expanded, with Waymo rides now busier than 99% of human drivers and a broader OEM strategy taking shape through deals like Lucid/Nuro. UBER shares fell more than 2% at the opening bell on 8/6 but recovered most of the losses intraday after posting in-line EPS and a stronger-than-expected top-line figure…
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Bull-Bear Spread Tips Negative
The equity market’s rally has hit a bit of a snag since late July, although the S&P 500 is far from having collapsed as it remains within a couple percentage points of record highs. Nonetheless, sentiment has taken a hit. Bullish sentiment according to the weekly AAII survey peaked in the first week of July at 45%. Since then, it has fallen in four of the five weeks with the latest print of 34.9% the lowest of that stretch. That is only the lowest reading since the week of June 18th when it fell to 33.2%.
The drop in bulls corresponds with bearish sentiment picking up. Bearish sentiment has seen a more substantial increase, rising from 33% last week to 43.2% this week. That is now the highest reading for bears since the week of May 15, and the 10.2 percentage point leap week over week was the largest increase since the last week of February.
As shown below, the spread between bulls and bears has dipped back into negative territory and is at its lowest level since mid-May.
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: DoorDash (DASH)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers DoorDash’s (DASH) Q2 2025 earnings call.
DoorDash (DASH) is a platform for local commerce, best known for connecting consumers with restaurants, convenience stores, grocers, and retailers through on-demand delivery. It operates across the US and internationally through its Wolt subsidiary and has grown into a multi-vertical logistics and commerce engine. Beyond delivery, DoorDash now serves merchants with SaaS tools, ads, and first-party logistics via its Drive and Storefront products. DoorDash’s Q2 call highlighted surging growth in non-restaurant categories, which are now growing faster than core food delivery and seeing record engagement. DashPass subscriptions continue to thrive, including strong cohort retention even five years in. The $1B+ advertising business is now bolstered by the Symbiosys acquisition, while AI was noted in improving operations, personalization, and engineering workflows. CEO Tony Xu emphasized that DoorDash is still early in penetrating total addressable usage occasions, including grocery and retail. International markets like Wolt hit record MAUs and frequency. Autonomous delivery and drone tests are ongoing, but real scale remains a future goal. DASH shares were trading about 5% higher in modday trading on 8/7 following its better than expected results after the close on 8/6…
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Chart of the Day: Strong Earnings
Tech’s Weight Loss in the S&P 493
The Technology sector now has a weighting of 34.45% in the S&P 500, which is basically near record-highs only seen at the peak of the Dot Com Bubble in early 2000. Below is a pie chart showing current S&P 500 sector weights. Tech’s weighting is now more than 20 percentage points higher than Financials (13.53%), which is the second largest sector in the index.
Things look significantly different if we remove the mega-cap Mag 7 stocks (AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA) and only look at the “S&P 493.” As shown in the table and pie chart below, Tech is no longer the largest sector when looking at the S&P 500 ex Mag 7. Financials actually takes the top spot with a 21.1% weighting in the S&P 493. Tech moves down to second with a weighting of 19.4%, followed by Health Care (12.9%) and Industrials (12.5%) in third and fourth. Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services also become quite a bit smaller when looking at their weightings in the S&P 493. Consumer Discretionary is the 3rd largest sector in the S&P 500 at 10.4%, but it ranks as just the 6th largest in the S&P 493 at 7.2%. Communication Services sees an even bigger drop when going from the S&P 500 to S&P 493, falling from 9.9% down to 4.8%.
On the flip side, Consumer Staples jumps from the 7th largest sector in the S&P 500 to the 5th largest sector when looking at the S&P 500 ex Mag 7. Similar to how large-cap valuations look a lot less excessive when removing the Mag 7 from the equation, sector weightings also become a lot more balanced.
