Another Strong Week for Stocks
With the week now complete, below is a helpful look at the recent performance of various asset classes using key ETFs traded in the US.
Large-cap growth (IVW) was up 2.6% on the week, while mid-caps and small-caps actually fell. Technology (XLK) was the best performing sector due to Oracle’s (ORCL) massive gain, while Consumer Staples (XLP) and Materials (XLB) were the worst.
Outside of the US, there are a dozen country ETFs now up 20%+ on the year, which easily beats out SPY’s year-to-date gain of 12.8%. Spain (EWP) is up the most in 2025 with a huge gain of 59.6%.
Argentina (ARGT) and natural gas (UNG) were the two worst performing ETFs in our matrix this week.
Sticking with commodities, agriculture (DBA), gold (GLD), and silver (SLV) all rallied more than 1%, with GLD and SLV extending huge year-to-date gains.
Finally, Treasury ETFs were also up across the board this week as rates fell, especially at the long-end.
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Extreme Overbought
The S&P 500 has had a great run over the last few weeks, but just yesterday it closed in “extreme overbought” territory for the first time since December. You can see the “extreme overbought” reading in our 50-DMA spread chart below (which gets published in our Morning Lineup each day).
Overbought levels are indicative of a market that’s extended. Price can’t stay overbought forever, and eventually mean reversion takes place.
But it’s worth knowing how the market has historically performed when it has gotten to “extreme overbought” levels for the first time in a long time. While there may be some weakness in the near-term, what about the next 3, 6, or 12 months?
If you’re interested in finding out, we’ve got the stats in this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter, which just got posted for subscribers.
The entire report is worth the read, so start a Bespoke Premium trial today! With a new membership, you’ll gain access to a lot more than just our weekly Bespoke Report.
The Bespoke Report – 9/12/25 – Objects In Motion
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. This week, we review the ongoing enthusiasm across asset markets including a bullish signal delivered by the equity market this week, tight spreads, falling long-term rates, and strong price action in a range of global equity markets. We also got a lot of interesting data this week with implications for labor markets, inflation, and the overall health of the economy. From AI to option-adjusted spreads, this week’s Bespoke Report will get you caught up on markets and economic data for the week. Give it a read!
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/12/25 – Highs Keep Adding Up
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.” – H.L. Mencken
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Well, the market can’t go up every day. Equity futures are on pace to close out the week on a modestly weaker note as the Dow and S&P 500 are indicated to open the session modestly lower. For its part, the Nasdaq is looking at modest gains following strong earnings from Adobe (ADBE), which has that stock trading up 3%. The 10-year yield is two bps higher, but at less than 4.04%, it’s been a good week for longer-term treasuries. Crude oil is up fractionally, along with most precious metals, but silver is up closer to 2%. In crypto, Bitcoin is looking at modest gain as it flirts with $115K, but Ethereum is back above $4,500 with a gain of over 2%, while Solana, the newest flavor of the month in the space, has surged over 5% to $239 and its highest levels since January.
The uneventful tone in the US follows what was mostly a positive session in Asia as Japan and South Korea rallied to new all-time highs. Outside of Australia, all the major averages in the region finished the week with gains of at least 1%, and in most cases more.
In Europe, the tone has been more subdued as the STOXX is trading slightly lower along with most major country benchmarks. For the week, though, returns have also been positive with gains of roughly 1%. One negative item has been growth in the UK, where GDP was unchanged in July, versus forecasts for an increase of 0.4%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production, which was forecast to be unchanged versus June, dropped by 0.9%.
Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected jobless claims report and mostly in-line CPI solidified the case for multiple FOMC rate cuts in the months ahead. The market responded with a very broad-based rally as over 85% of S&P 500 stocks traded higher on the session, and small caps outperformed large caps. The S&P 500’s 0.85% rally took it to another record closing high as the index now pushes up against a trendline that has been in place for the last year. As shown in the chart below, while stocks sold off sharply after the index bumped up against this rising ceiling early in the year, most times it has encountered this trendline, the pullbacks were modest.
Following yesterday’s rally, the S&P 500 has now moved into ‘extreme’ overbought territory on a short-term basis, which we define as more than two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The last time it traded at more overbought levels was back in June 2023. We’ll have more on these ‘extreme’ overbought readings in tonight’s Bespoke Report.
With yesterday’s new high, the S&P 500 has now had 24 record closing highs this year. While it’s above the historical average of 18 per year, 24 is hardly extreme by any stretch of the imagination, and it’s less than half of last year’s total of 57. On the other hand, back in early April, was anyone thinking we’d be anywhere close to new highs later this year, let alone hitting them multiple times? Be honest!
While September is historically known for its weakness, the S&P 500 has already had four record closing highs in eight trading days this month. That may be short of last year’s total of five, but there’s still another 13 trading days left in the month! The record for closing highs in September was 11 in 1955, followed by 10 in 1995, and 9 in 2017. If your memory is good (and long), you’ll remember that those were all good years, and some people reading this may have even been around for all of them!
The Closer – Insurance, Corporate Commentary, CPI – 9/11/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a look into the diverging readings in sentiment gauges (page 1). We then look over some fundamentals of insurance stocks (page 2) before switching to a slew of corporate commentary we have gotten in recent days (pages 3-5). Turning over to macro data, we then review the latest CPI release (pages 6 and 7), the latest Z1 report out of the Fed (page 8), and wrap up with a glance at the strong demand for US Treasuries on the primary market (page 9).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Insurance Burdening Homeowners
In Tuesday’s Closer, we touched on some recent housing inventory, price, and mortgage delinquency data. With regards to delinquencies, the ICE Mortgage Monitor pointed to an improvement in the delinquency rate as of July.
While the monthly ICE report usually focuses on noncurrent loans, the most recent report also turned the spotlight on insurance premiums for mortgaged single family homes; specifically in regards to its impacts on home affordability. After surging 8.3% in 2024, average annual home insurance premiums hit another record high in June, rising to $6.19 for every $1,000 in coverage. That growth has far outpaced other categories like principal, interest, and taxes, which have likewise grown considerably in the past few years, making for an additional factor hurting affordability.
According to ICE’s data, the average single-family mortgage holder now pays about $2,370 a year for property insurance, accounting for a record 9.6% of average total mortgage-related expenses comprising principal, interest, taxes, and insurance.
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Chewy (CHWY)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Chewy’s (CHWY) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Chewy (CHWY) is the leading online retailer of pet products in the US, offering everything from food and treats to medications, vet services, and now premium fresh and frozen meals. The company serves millions of pet owners with a heavy emphasis on convenience through its Autoship subscription program and a growing Chewy Plus membership that mirrors Amazon Prime. In Q2 FY25, Chewy posted net sales of $3.1B (+9% YoY), outpacing the industry’s low- to mid-single-digit growth and gaining share. Autoship reached a record $2.58B (83% of sales, +15% YoY), while active customers grew 4.5% to 20.9M with stronger cohort quality. The Chewy Plus membership ramped quickly, representing 3% of July sales, with members buying more frequently and attaching more items. A highlight was the launch of “Get Real,” Chewy’s fresh dog food line, targeting a TAM expected to grow from about $4B today to about $8–12B in the coming years. Tariff concerns were addressed through inventory builds and onshoring. CHWY shares sank 16.5% on 9/10 despite EPS and revenue beats…
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Chart of the Day: Claims Surge
B.I.G. Tips – IPO Radar
About 125 stocks with market caps of at least $500 million have IPOd since the current “AI” bull market began back in October 2022. IPOs have seen a pick-up in buying interest this year as evidenced by the performance of the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) that holds positions in newly-public companies. As we do from time to time, we went through all recent IPOs to try and identify ones that look bullish or at least worth considering. While the majority of these names likely won’t become large-cap blue-chips in the years and even decades ahead, a few of them could, which makes analyzing them worth the effort.
Based on their business models, the industry they’re in, sales growth, and/or recent share-price action, we found 24 recent IPOs from the broader list of 125 that caught our attention (sorted by market cap). In this report, we provide a one-sentence company description and a note on how shares have been trading recently. The names that are in uptrends but in neutral territory (not too overbought) have the best set-ups right now, but please note that, like always, this list is meant to be a starting point for further research rather than a “buy” recommendation. Additionally, we provide charts for each stock with annotations. Our hope is that readers browse through these names and see if any particular ones piqué their interest.
To unlock our latest B.I.G. Tips report taking a look at 24 recent IPOs, login or start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/11/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“We just need every single person in this country to think about where we are and where we want to be. To ask ourselves, is this it?” – Spencer Cox
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Between the 24th anniversary of 9/11 and the political violence in Utah, there’s a lot to think about this morning before even considering the markets. The big news of the day will obviously be the August CPI report, along with jobless claims, which are just hitting the tape as we send this. Overnight, Asia had a mixed session with the Nikkei up over 1%, while Chinese equities also surged 1.7% following reports that the government will provide more stimulus for state-backed banks. On the trade front, though, Mexico said it will increase tariffs on vehicle imports from Asia to 50% from 20%.
In Europe this morning, the STOXX 600 is up 0.4% and every major country equity benchmark is also trading in the green. As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged.
In the US, equity futures were modestly higher heading into the data, while treasury yields were up about 2 bps across the curve. Crude oil and gold were fractionally lower, while cryptocurrencies were broadly higher, with Ethereum up over 3%.
Yesterday’s surge in Oracle (ORCL) was unbelievable. If you saw the chart pattern below for a small-cap stock, it would look impressive, but when one of the largest companies in the world experiences a breakout like that, it’s jaw-dropping.
With yesterday’s surge, shares of ORCL reached ludicrously short-term overbought levels by closing 5.57 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average (DMA). As crazy as that level is, it’s not even the most overbought reading ORCL has ever registered. As shown in the chart below, back on 6/22/17, ORCL shares closed 5.64 standard deviations above their 50-DMA after the company reported an earnings report which showed strong growth in its cloud business.
The chart below looks like a mess, and we don’t expect you to get too much insight from it. What it shows is the daily overbought/oversold readings for the 20 largest stocks in the S&P 500 over the last ten years. The point here is to show that it’s incredibly uncommon for large and mega-cap stocks to reach overbought levels like ORCL did yesterday. It’s only happened a handful of other times!
