Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/5/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When it is darkest there is always light ahead.” – Roald Amundsen
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While New York City elected a democratic socialist to be its next mayor last night, today is the first anniversary of the 2024 Presidential Election. Below is a look at the S&P 500’s percentage change over the last year compared to its change in the year after President Trump’s first election victory in 2016. While the two paths diverge in the middle part of the chart because of the “tariff tantrum” seen earlier this year, the full-year performance for the S&P following the 2016 and 2024 Elections is now very similar. We’ll be looking at stock market performance during the Presidential Election Cycle in more detail in today’s Chart of the Day, so keep an eye out for that if you have an interest.
Below is our asset class performance matrix showing total returns across a range of ETFs in the year after the 2024 Election versus the year after the 2016 Election.
While large-cap domestic equity ETFs posted strong gains in the first year after Trump’s 2016 and 2024 wins, there are a lot of areas that have done a lot worse this time around.
The biggest disparities show up in small and mid-cap ETFs. In the year after the 2016 Election, we saw similar 20%+ gains across the market-cap spectrum. This time around, small-caps and mid-caps have been left in the dust, while large-caps have surged.
As an example, the S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) is up 27.8% since last year’s Election, while the Smallcap 600 Growth ETF (IJT) is up just 0.55%.
Looking at sector ETFs, Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were up similar amounts, but Health Care (XLV), Materials (XLB), and Real Estate (XLRE) have been much weaker in the last year compared to the year after the 2016 Election.
Outside of the US, we’ve seen most country ETFs post huge gains since the 2024 Election, while their returns were much more muted in the year after the 2016 Election.
Finally, gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have been two of the best performing ETFs in the entire matrix since Trump’s 2024 victory, but they were down in the year after his first victory.
The Closer – Outside Day, Baskets Check-In, Jobs – 11/4/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with some negative reactions to AI triple plays in addition to the Nasdaq’s downside outside day (page 1). We then review a handful of our various baskets (pages 2 and 3). Next up, we review Indeed job postings both in the US and abroad (pages 4-6) before closing out with a look at the health of supply chain businesses (page 7).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day – S&P 500 (But Not a Lot of Stocks) Up Six Months in a Row
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/4/25 – It Must Be Tuesday
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“America’s health care system is neither healthy, caring, nor a system.” – Walter Cronkite
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a strangely subdued reaction to its earnings report after the close yesterday, shares of Palantir (PLTR) are down nearly 8% in the pre-market as investors had some time to sleep on it overnight. An 8% decline is nothing to dismiss, but it’s also important to remember that PLTR is a volatile stock. In its history as a public company, the average one-day reaction to earnings has been a gain or loss of over 15%, and based on where it’s trading now, shares of PLTR are back to where they were just last Tuesday.
The decline in PLTR comes as a cloud of concern envelops the market over how fast stocks have rallied and where valuations have gone. Right on cue, a Bloomberg article says as much with the headline below. While the headline sounds scary enough, the details read a lot less scary. Essentially, it quotes various Wall Street CEOs, among them Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, suggesting that the market could see a pullback of 10% to 20% at some point in the next 12 to 24 months. Solomon was quoted as saying, “Of course, it’s likely there will be a 10% to 20% drawdown in equity markets over the next 12 months,” but even he admitted that pullbacks like that can come at any time and from any level.
Concerns are concerns, though, and when investors worry, they sell. With that, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both indicated to open down by more than 1%, following a down session in Asia and Europe, where stocks are also broadly lower by around 1% or more.
Even with the sharp decline in equities, bond yields are only modestly lower as the 10-year yield still hangs around 4.1%. Crude oil prices are also down more than 1%, which suggests that investors are also concerned about the health of the economy, given the ongoing shutdown. We’ll be watching the level of airport delays; the more they rise, the more likely it is that policymakers in DC reach an agreement to open the government back up. Thanksgiving is just three weeks away, and no one on either side of the aisle wants to face the wrath of Americans who can’t get home for the holiday.
Given the scope of the pre-market declines, it must be Tuesday. As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500’s median opening gap on Tuesdays this year has been just five basis points (bps), which is less than half the next closest weekdays (Thursdays and Fridays), so the day has had a knack for weakness. From the open to close, Tuesday isn’t the weakest day of the week, but it’s still much weaker than the median gains of 15 bps on Monday and 8 bps on Friday.
The Closer – More Breadth Disconnect, Fedspeak, Issuance – 11/3/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a rundown of the latest earnings (page 1) followed by a check up on the disconnects between price and breadth including how mega-caps have impacted the S&P 500 (page 2). Next, we review the latest slug of Fedspeak and give an update on repo markets (page 3). Turning over to macro data, we close out with updates on ISM (page 4), Remittances (page 5), and election day (page 6).
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – November 2025
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Chipotle (CMG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Chipotle’s (CMG) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Chipotle (CMG) operates more than 3,500 fast-casual restaurants specializing in customizable burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads. Serving a broad customer base that skews younger and urban, Chipotle offers insight into US consumer behavior and spending trends, especially among millennials and middle-income households. Chipotle’s Q3 call centered on macro pressure from lower- and middle-income consumers, who’ve reduced dining frequency as inflation, unemployment, and student loans weigh on budgets. Management noted that households under $100K account for roughly 40% of sales and are dining out less, but stressed that Chipotle isn’t losing share to competitors, only to food-at-home options. The company plans to limit 2026 price increases and absorb some cost inflation to preserve value, even as tariffs and beef costs rise mid-single digits. Digital engagement and loyalty activations like “Summer of Extras” lifted frequency, while new equipment upgrades improved throughput. Unit expansion and catering pilots remain key growth drivers heading into 2026. CMG missed on the top-line with in-line EPS as shares plummeted 18.3% on 10/30…
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Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Alphabet (GOOGL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Alphabet (GOOGL), the parent company of Google, is a global technology leader whose businesses span Search, YouTube, Android, Chrome, Google Cloud, and an expanding portfolio of AI-driven products. The company posted its first-ever $100 billion quarter, with revenue up 16% YoY, driven by Search, YouTube, and Cloud. AI dominated the discussion. Gemini models now process 7 billion tokens per minute, and the Cloud backlog surged 46% to $155 billion as enterprise demand for AI infrastructure soared. Search engagement grew sharply with AI Overviews and AI Mode, while YouTube’s Shorts and interactive ads helped lift ad revenue 15%. CapEx guidance rose to $91–93 billion for 2025 to continue funding data center expansion. Waymo expanded to new cities and airports, and a major quantum breakthrough was highlighted. Shares rose 2.5% on 10/31 on EPS and revenue beats…
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Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Royal Caribbean (RCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Royal Caribbean’s (RCL) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Royal Caribbean (RCL) operates a global fleet of cruise ships and expanding land-based vacation destinations under brands like Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises. The company serves millions of travelers seeking premium leisure-travel experiences. RCL saw about 2.5 million vacations (+7% YoY) and net yield growth of about 2.4%. Demand stayed strong, especially from families booking closer to departure. The Caribbean, 57 % of deployment, continues to perform well despite added industry capacity, with yields expected to be 37% above 2019 levels in Q4. Digital engagement set records, with nearly 90% of onboard revenue purchased before sailing through its app and online platforms. Expansion of exclusive destinations like Perfect Day Mexico and the Royal Beach Club Santorini remains central to growth, alongside the new Celebrity River cruise brand. On the cost side, the company expects $1.14 billion in fuel expense (68% hedged), EU ETS compliance at 100% in 2026, and a modest hit from the new global minimum tax. RCL beat on EPS but missed top-line estimates and cut guidance. Shares sank 8.5% on 10/28 as a result…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for RCL by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Microsoft (MSFT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Microsoft’s (MSFT) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Microsoft (MSFT) software, hardware, and cloud services power the backbone of modern digital life. Its portfolio spans operating systems (Windows), productivity software (Microsoft 365), developer tools (GitHub, Visual Studio), cloud infrastructure (Azure), AI platforms, and gaming (Xbox). The company serves consumers, enterprises, and governments worldwide. Microsoft reported a strong start to fiscal 2026, with revenue up 18% to $77.7 billion and cloud revenue climbing 26% to $49 billion. The company highlighted massive AI infrastructure expansion (AI capacity up 80% this year and total data center footprint set to double in two years), driven by surging demand from partners like OpenAI, which added $250 billion in Azure commitments. Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption exceeded 150 million users, while GitHub Copilot reached 26 million. Fabric data platform revenue rose 60%, and security saw 100 trillion daily signals processed. Despite Azure capacity constraints, management emphasized strong bookings and durable AI-driven growth. MSFT shares fell 2.9% on 10/30 despite better-than-expected results…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for MSFT by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: