The Closer – Modeled Effects, Parcel Paradigm Shift – 5/4/26
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
- The Federal Reserve’s primary macroeconomic model (FRB/US) can be used to estimate impacts to macroeconomic data dependent on various moves in crude prices.
- The announcement that Amazon (AMZN) will expand its supply chain to businesses who are not sellers on its e-commerce platform caused a historic decline in transportation stocks.
- Speculator positioning in Nasdaq 100 futures reached the first net short reading since July 2024.
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke Market Calendar — May 2026
Please click the image below to view our May 2026 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases.Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Which Way Will Yields Break
Along with oil prices resuming their upward climb in the last couple of weeks, we’ve also seen a similar resumption of the uptick in interest rates, as investors price in a combination of higher inflation and larger deficits from any potential escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. At a yield of 4.45%, the 10-year US Treasury is on pace for the highest close since last July and not far from the 4.48% high in late March.
While yields push towards multi-month highs, the last three years have been much more range-bound. Over this period, yields bottomed out just below 3.25% in April 2023 and peaked out just under 5.02% six months ago. Since then, the yield has remained contained in that range with a series of lower highs and higher lows. After bouncing off the low end of that narrowing range in late February, yields are now pushing towards the upper end of that narrowing range as global markets brace for whichever way yields ultimately decide to break.
Like this analysis? Join our Think BIG mailing list or Bespoke Premium by starting a trial today! Click below for details on how to sign up for Premium:
Chart of the Day: One for the TEAM
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/4/26 – Moody Market
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Nothing is impossible, the word itself says ‘I’m possible’!” – Audrey Hepburn
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
16-year-old, meet market. If you think the life of a 16-year-old is an emotional roller-coaster where ‘life isn’t fair’ turns into ‘top of the world’ on a dime, the market has been doing a stellar impression lately. From the end of February right through all of March, the S&P 500 declined for five straight weeks. Once March ended, though, the pendulum swung completely in the opposite direction with five straight weeks of gains. There hasn’t been any in between.
It has been very uncommon for the S&P 500 to experience at least five weekly declines followed by at least five weekly gains. Since WWII, there have been 32 other losing streaks of at least five weeks, and there have been 120 streaks of at least five-week gains. However, there have only been five other periods when a five-week winning streak came immediately after a streak of at least five weeks of losses. The last one was way back in 1982, so the teenagers out there (and maybe even their parents) won’t remember that one.
Last week also saw a notable shift in a pattern that has been prevalent ever since the war started. For the last nine weeks, it seemed as though whatever was good for oil prices and the energy sector was bad for all other stocks and vice versa. Last week, though, Energy was the top-performing sector, gaining 3.48%, but the only other stocks to finish the week lower were Materials (-1.10%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.05%). In fact, four other sectors rallied more than 1%, including Technology (1.03%) and Communication Services (1.02%). The market won’t be able to ignore rising energy prices in perpetuity, but it is a welcome respite.
It’s been a volatile morning for equity futures as conflicting headlines from the Middle East caused a sharp pullback in futures earlier this morning. Reports that Iran fired on a US ship erased earlier gains in equities and a sharp increase in oil prices. US officials have refuted the reports, though, and we’ve reclaimed a decent amount of the earlier losses, and the S&P 500 is now just down 0.2% while the Nasdaq is flat.
In Asia, Japan and China were closed for a holiday, but South Korea surged over 5% while Hong Kong rallied 1.2%. Manufacturing PMIs for both South Korea and Singapore both expanded more than expected.
European stocks returned from last Friday’s holiday with losses. The STOXX 600 is down over 0.5%, led lower by Spain, which is down over 1% while France and Italy are both underperforming. Like Asia, Manufacturing PMIs for countries in the region have generally been stronger than expected.
Looking ahead to the US today, the only economic report on the calendar is Factory Orders at 10 AM. NY Fed President Williams will be speaking at the Yale Club just before 1 PM, and after the bell, Palantir (PLTR) will report Q1 earnings.
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
Brunch Reads – 5/3/26
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
In Flanders Fields: On May 3, 1915, during the Second Battle of Ypres in Belgium, Canadian physician and officer John McCrae wrote the poem In Flanders Fields after the death of his friend, Lieutenant Alexis Helmer, who was killed by an artillery shell. McCrae had conducted the burial himself the day prior, as no chaplain was available, and the experience prompted him to write the poem the following morning. The imagery of poppies growing among the graves was drawn directly from the battlefield, where the flowers commonly grew in disturbed soil. The poem was later published in Punch magazine in December 1915 and went on to become one of the most widely recognized works of World War I, helping establish the poppy as a lasting symbol of remembrance for fallen soldiers.
AI & Technology
KitKat’s newest product is . . . a Faraday cage? (Fast Company)
KitKat tested a phone-blocking pouch that looks like its wrapper but acts like a Faraday cage, cutting off calls, internet, and everything else to turn “take a break” into something literal. It’s less about selling a real product for now and more about tapping into the growing demand to unplug, as brands look for ways to turn digital burnout into a marketing angle. [Link]
Continue reading our weekly Brunch Reads linkfest by logging in if you’re already a member or signing up for a trial to one of our two membership levels shown below! You can cancel at any time.
The Bespoke Report – 5/1/26 – Global Macro Update
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. This week, we are sending out our Global Macro Update deck instead of our traditional Bespoke Report. This report is filled with dozens of charts reviewing the current state of the global economy and where it’s headed next. Our two biggest areas of focus are the AI boom and the war in Iran. We discuss a range of trade ideas based on those two themes as well as the outlook for the global economy writ large and the Federal Reserve going forward. Give it a read!
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Alphabet (GOOGL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Alphabet (GOOGL) runs one of the world’s most influential digital ecosystems, spanning Search, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Google Cloud, along with a growing portfolio of AI models and infrastructure. Search grew 19% as AI Overviews and AI Mode drove higher usage and more complex queries, while also opening new ad opportunities. Cloud revenue grew 63% past $20B, with backlog nearly doubling to $460B, fueled by enterprise demand for Gemini models and infrastructure. That demand is so strong that compute constraints are limiting growth, pushing CapEx to $35.7B in the quarter. Ads are evolving with better targeting and early agentic commerce tests, while YouTube continues to benefit from TV viewing and subscription growth. The company is also monetizing its infrastructure edge, including selling TPUs externally, and strengthening its enterprise pitch with the Wiz cybersecurity acquisition. Shares rose 10% on 5/1 in reaction to strong EPS and revenue results versus estimates…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for GOOGL by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Caterpillar (CAT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Caterpillar’s (CAT) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Caterpillar (CAT) makes the heavy equipment and engines that keep the physical economy running. Think excavators for construction, trucks for mining, and large engines that power oil fields and data centers. Caterpillar put up a strong quarter with sales up 22% to $17.4B and backlog hitting a record $63B, largely driven by a surge in demand for power equipment tied to data centers. Management is leaning hard into that trend, planning to nearly triple large engine capacity versus 2024 as orders stretch years into the future. North America construction remains steady thanks to infrastructure spending and non-residential work, while mining is improving on stronger demand for copper and gold and an aging equipment base. Tariffs are still a drag (now expected at $2.2B–$2.4B this year), but came in lighter than expected this quarter. On better-than-expected results, CAT shares rallied almost 10% on 4/30…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for CAT by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Generac (GNRC)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Generac’s (GNRC) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Generac (GNRC) makes backup power systems, from home standby generators to large-scale industrial units used in data centers, telecom networks, and construction sites. The company is at the center of rising power demand, grid instability, and data center expansion driven by AI, while also building a residential energy ecosystem that includes solar, storage, and smart home energy management. Q1 showed a pivot toward industrial growth, with C&I sales up 28%, due largely to data center demand, where backlog jumped to $700M+, and visibility now extends into 2027. Management emphasized being in the final stages of the approval process with a hyperscaler tied to a $600M opportunity, showing how the AI infrastructure buildout is shaping demand. Supply chain control and capacity are now the focus, with the Enercon acquisition addressing bottlenecks and discussions underway to scale toward $2–3B in capacity. Residential was steadier, with weather-driven demand (Winter Storm Fern) helping offset softer underlying conditions, though growth is expected to skew heavily to the second half on easier outage comps. Margins expanded meaningfully on price-cost and cost discipline, while tariffs remain a watch item but are currently modeled as neutral. Outside data centers, telecom and rental markets are improving, with re-fleeting cycles and network hardening adding support. GNRC shares were up 16.5% on 4/29 in reaction to better-than-expected EPS and revenue…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for GNRC by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: