Stocks have broadly moved higher this month, and of Russell 1,000 members, one stock has left the rest of the index far behind. Month to date, the single best-performing Russell 1,000 member has been Avis Budget (CAR). The stock is up over 130% MTD, whereas the next best performer, Astera Labs (ALBA), is up by not even half as much (49%).  We noted the vehicle rental firm in a couple of X.com posts (here and here) in the past 24 hours. The rally has been driven in part by a short squeeze as the stock has more than half of its shares sold short, as we will detail further below.

In a post yesterday, we highlighted how the S&P 500 recently snapped a seven-day winning streak while several individual members of the index have gone on historic winning streaks in their own respects. Given its monumental run, CAR can also be added to the list of winning streaks. As shown below, assuming it closes higher on Tuesday, it would be its tenth consecutive daily gain.

Again, the rally in CAR is in all likelihood a short squeeze.  Short interest data as of the end of March was published last Friday, and those readings showed 54% of the float in CAR sold short. On that basis, it is the most heavily bet against stock in the Russell 1,000. Additionally, CAR appears to be the only heavily shorted name getting squeezed. In the table below, we show the 25 stocks with the most short interest in the Russell 1,000, and while a small majority are higher MTD, none are even close to the rally in CAR, nor is such a large share of float shorted. For example, Fermi (FRMI) started the year with a reading above 70%. That share is down to 46.6% as of the most recent data, as the stock has fallen 32.7% since the start of the year.

Below, we show average short interest readings for all members of each industry group in the Russell 1,000.  Due to CAR, the transportation industry is the fifth most heavily shorted group, although if that stock were removed, the industry would rank in the middle of the pack.  A related industry is in a similar boat. The Automobile and Components industry ranks as the highest average short interest level at 9.6%. However, this is again due to some members being much more heavily shorted than others, namely: EV-focused stocks. Whereas legacy auto OEM and parts retailers have low to mid-single digit short interest levels, EV stocks have readings in the mid-teens and upwards of 30% for the most heavily shorted name: Lucid (LCID).  LCID is also the third most heavily shorted stock of all Russell 1,000 members. Additionally, we would note that these EV names do have one exception. Tesla (TSLA) is actually the least shorted stock in the industry, currently below 2% per the most recent print.

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The Iran war resulted in a tough March for US equities. In addition to the S&P 500 falling close to 10% versus its 52-week high, breadth took a measurable hit. As shown below, up until the first week of March, the 10-day advance/decline line, which measures the net share of index members rising or falling each day over ten days, was positive for most of the year. Once equities began selling off, this measure tanked, and at the low on March 13th, it reached the lowest level since 12/19/24, which also ranks as a 2nd percentile reading going back to 1990.  With the benefit of hindsight, we can now say that low in breadth pre-dated the low in price (which came on March 30th). It has now been ten trading days since the low, and daily breadth has been positive all but twice (April 7th and April 10th were the only days with negative daily breadth).  As a result, the 10-day A/D line is now at the highest levels since 7/10/25.

As we highlighted in yesterday’s Sector Snapshot, not only has the S&P 500’s 10-day A/D line risen sharply, but several other sectors have as well. As shown below, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Real Estate all went from extreme oversold readings (2+ standard deviations below the historical average) to extreme overbought readings today.  While the reading isn’t quite as extreme, Tech has also seen a sharp rise in its line.

As might be evident from the one-year charts above, by far the most extended breadth measure comes out of the Real Estate sector. To give greater historical context, below we show the 10-day A/D line going back to September 2016, when it became a sector. With another move higher today, Real Estate’s 10-day A/D line is at the highest level since 2/2/23. The only other times the 10-day A/D line was more elevated were from January to February 2019 and in June 2020.

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Over the weekend, ceasefire talks fell apart, and the Strait of Hormuz started facing a blockade this morning. Despite these negative catalysts leading to a negative tone at Monday’s open, equities rallied throughout the session with the S&P 500 finishing up over 1%. That return to green candles also meant the S&P 500 has now rallied in eight of the last nine sessions. In fact, Friday was the only down day recently, and that snapped a seven-day winning streak. As shown below, that was the longest streak of consecutive up days since another seven days last October. Going back to 2000, that was the 29th example of a winning streak of 7 days or more, with the longest going for nine days last May.

Again, winning streaks lasting at least 7 days have been somewhat uncommon. Filtering out those streaks to only look at those without another one in the prior six months, as was the case recently, there have been 48 instances since the start of the five-day trading week in 1953.  As shown below, from the close of the first down day that ended those winning streaks, the S&P 500’s average performance has been modestly stronger than the norm and consistently positive in the weeks and months ahead.

The broad index isn’t alone in stringing together a number of up days in a row.  Of all S&P 500 members, seven are currently on even longer winning streaks of at least nine trading days, with one stock, State Street (STT), now on a ten-day winning streak.  In the charts below, we show how those streaks stack up versus their respective histories.  None of these winning streaks has gone on long enough to be records, although STT and Microchip (MCHP) are each only one day away.  We would note that most of these stocks, other than STT, are in the Tech sector or adjacent to it. Regarding Intel (INTC), its winning streak is one of many that have lasted 9 days throughout its history, but as we discussed in an earlier post, there hasn’t been a time since 1984 that it has risen by more in such a span.

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“Dude, we’ re getting a flashback to the late 1990s.” Of the handful of stocks on the 52-week high list today, two notable standouts are Dell (DELL) and Intel (INTC). The two stalwarts of the 1990s tech boom have both rallied sharply, and on a mixed session for the market today, DELL is up over 5%, and INTC is up 3%.

The rally for INTC is especially noteworthy as sentiment towards the stock has made a complete 180-degree turn in the last year. A year ago, the stock traded below $20. Today, it’s over $60!

As shown above, shares of INTC never came close to testing their 200-day moving average (DMA) during the most recent pullback, and the rally over the last several days has only pushed the price to historically extreme levels relative to that long-term moving average. As of right now, INTC is trading 76.6% above its 200-DMA, which ranks among the widest spreads since at least 1984.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, the spread exceeded 75% during a few other rallies, but this year the spread has reached record extremes. Earlier this year, the spread reached a record 87.99%. What makes this recent move more notable is that less than two years ago, INTC closed farther below its 200 DMA (-50.5%) than on any other day since 1984 except for one (4/4/01).

INTC’s latest short-term move also ranks as extreme. With a rally of 56.08% over the last nine trading days, INTC is on pace for its largest nine-day rally since at least 1984. Unlike the 200-DMA spread, which reached similar levels in the 1980s and 1990s, no other nine-day period in the last 42 years has seen anything even remotely similar in percentage terms to the rally the stock has seen since 3/30. In 1970, Intel adopted the slogan “Intel Delivers,” and 56 years later, the company’s stock just delivered like never before.

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