Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/7/25 – Whipsaw Semis
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“We learn from history that we don’t learn from history!” – Desmond Tutu
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There’s not a lot going on in the futures market this morning, and once again, it will be another day without any economic data as the government remains closed. At this point, very few people have been affected by the shutdown, but as paydays come and go, the switchboards in DC will start heating up.
While there’s no economic data on the calendar, plenty of Fed officials are likely to speak, including Fed governors Bowman and Miran as well as Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. The next Fed meeting is just three weeks away, and markets currently expect a 93% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut.
In Asian markets overnight, it was a quiet session. China and South Korea were closed while Japan finished marginally higher after trading up over 1% earlier in the session. The Yen weakened against the dollar again following the weekend election results as the likelihood of rate hikes declines, although a 30-year auction with a relatively high bid-to-cover ratio calmed some investor nerves.
European stocks are trading higher but by modest amounts, with the STOXX 600 trading up 0.2% with Italy (+0.6%) and France (+0.4%) leading the gains. German stocks aren’t performing as well following an unexpected decline in August Factory Orders (-0.8% vs 1.2%).
If you just looked at the performance of Nvidia (NVDA), which fell 1.1% yesterday, you probably would have thought semis had a bad day as well. You would have thought wrong. While NVDA was down, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) finished up 2.9%, and 24 of the index’s 30 components finished higher on the day. The scatter chart below compares the performance of NVDA (x-axis) to the SOX on every day since the launch of ChatGPT on 11/30/22, and during these 714 trading days, there have only been three where the SOX was up over 2.5% and NVDA traded down at least 1% on the day. In the post ChatGPT world, the SOX usually doesn’t rally without NVDA.
Given the broad strength in semis yesterday, the SOX continued it’s breakout from the summer consolidation and rallied to new highs yesterday. In the process, its price is now higher than the price of the S&P 500, something that only happened on a handful of other days back in 2004.
After yesterday’s rally, the SOX is now more than 31% above its 200-DMA. While that’s not unheard of for a volatile index like the SOX, the move from extreme oversold in April to extreme overbought now has been swift. In the span of 121 trading days, the SOX went from more than 25% below its 200-DMA to more than 25% above it. These kinds of reversals in the index have been uncommon.
The Closer – OpenAI-MD PCA, Bitcoin Breakout – 10/6/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a commentary on the deal between OpenAI and AMD (AMD) and what that could mean for the broader AI space (page 1). We then preview this week’s earnings (page 2) before switching over to some principal component analysis (page 3). We wrap up tonight’s note with a check-in on Bitcoin’s breakout (page 4).
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – October 2025
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Bespoke Stock Profile: Cloudflare (NET)
Chart of the Day: 30 in 6, 80 in 3
BNPL Fiscal Policy Drives Gold to New Highs
Japanese stocks surged over 4% to start the week after Sanae Takaichi was elected to lead Japan’s ruling party, positioning her to become the country’s first female prime minister. Last night’s rally propelled the Nikkei above 46,000 for the first time and extended the rally from the April lows to more than 56%!
The 4% gain in the Nikkei, however, is somewhat misleading, particularly for US investors. This is because Takaichi is seen as a fiscal dove; she once called recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes “stupid,” and one of her advisers has publicly stated the BoJ shouldn’t raise rates this fall. Given her preference for expansionist monetary policy, the Yen plunged nearly 2% against the dollar immediately following the news. As a result, the Nikkei’s 4% gain in nominal terms is nearly cut in half on a dollar-adjusted basis. Still, even a 2% rally is impressive!
With one of the world’s five largest economies now being led by a noted fiscal dove who favors easy monetary policy and expanded government spending, investors concerned about profligacy are flocking to gold, continuing the massive breakout from its period of summer consolidation. As of early Monday afternoon trading, gold was less than 1% from crossing $4,000 for the first time.
The chart below shows gold’s long-term performance, noting the first time it closed above each thousand-point threshold. While every thousand points represents a smaller percentage gain relative to gold’s overall price, it’s still worth highlighting how each one has been crossed in closer proximity to the last. It took infinity days for gold to first close above $1,000. The next thousand took 4,523 days, and then it took less than half that time to first cross $3,000. Now, less than seven months later, here comes $4,000. Simple math says that each subsequent thousand-point threshold will be crossed more quickly, and the more that governments around the world take a “buy now, pay later” approach to governing, the faster each domino will fall by the wayside.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/6/25 – Lucky Seven
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“A minute’s success pays the failure of years.” – Robert Browning
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If futures are any indication, today would be the S&P 500’s seventh straight day of gains as positive international markets, M&A news, and the government shutdown continue to provide an upside lift to equities. Overnight, the Nikkei rallied more than 4.7% for its best day since April after the election of Takaichi as the new leader of the LDP. Takaichi is a noted dove, and her advisers have already come out against a fall rate hike by the BoJ. The rally in Japanese stocks has been accompanied by rising yields and a weak yen, so despite the big gain on a nominal basis, the EWJ ETF is only up a bit more than 1%.
In Europe, the tone isn’t as positive, but the STOXX 600 is still in positive territory with a gain of 0.1%. At the country level, Germany and the UK are higher, while France, Italy, and Spain are all lower. France is notably weak, with a decline of 1.3% as PM Lecornu resigned, continuing the trend of political turmoil in the country.
Getting back to the US, the data calendar is light today and for the remainder of the week (with or without a shutdown), and earnings season won’t really start until next week, although we’ll hear from Constellation Brands (STZ) after the close today and then Delta (DAL) and Pepsi (PEP) on Thursday.
Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are on pace to trade more than 25% higher this morning on news of its chip supply deal and equity investment with OpenAI. If AMD manages to finish the day with a gain of 27% or more (a percentage level it has reached throughout the morning), it will rank as the second-largest one-day gain for the stock since at least 1985.
With today’s gain, shares of AMD will also be trading at “extremely extreme” overbought levels. Over the last 45 years, there have only been a handful of other days when the stock traded four or more standard deviations above its 50-DMA, and if the stock holds onto these gains throughout the trading session, today would be another one.
The Bespoke Report – Equity Market Pros and Cons – Q4 2025
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q4 2025.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page three of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page four and beyond.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 10/3/25 – Bitcoin Rallies Right on Cue
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“I’m a greater believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.” – Thomas Jefferson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US futures are higher again this morning as the S&P 500 looks to push further into record territory with a gain of 0.23%. Gains in the Nasdaq are more than twice as much as the index looks to start the session with a gain of half a percent. Oil prices are lower, trading at $61.5 per barrel, while the 10-year yield is very little changed at a very well-behaved 4.10%. Gold is fractionally higher, while silver is lower, and other precious metals like platinum and palladium are up closer to 2%. Even copper is up over 1.5%. Crypto is also having a strong morning as Bitcoin rallies more than 1% to $119K and Ether is right below $4,400.
We’re supposed to get weekly jobless claims at 8:30, but those will be delayed by the shutdown. But Challenger Job Cuts declined 25.8% year/year.
Overnight in Asia, it was a very strong session as the Nikkei was up nearly 1%, while Hong Kong, Korea, and Australia all surged over 1%. Korea surged 2.7% taking its YTD gain up to 48%! The overnight gain was driven by rallies in Samsung and SK Hynix, which rallied 4.7% and 12%, respectively, after the two companies announced an advanced memory chip deal with OpenAI. These two stocks have also been driving most of the gains for Korea all year.
In Europe this morning, we’re also seeing broad-based strength as the STOXX 600 gains 0.7% with Germany and France leading the way with gains over 1%. This morning’s strength comes as Unemployment for the region unexpectedly increased to 6.3% from 6.2%
The rally in gold just keeps chugging along. This morning, prices are once again attempting to close above $3,900 for the first time, on pace for the sixth straight day of gains and the ninth daily gain in the last ten. Investors have been looking in awe at charts like Nvidia (NVDA), Western Digital (WDC), and other hyper-growth stocks, but gold is screaming “what about me?” as its chart has also gone vertical. As of this morning, the price is more than 10% above its 50-day moving average (DMA) and 22% above the 200-DMA.
On a quarterly basis, gold is also reaching rare air. Its Q3 gain of 16.1% was the eighth straight, which ranks as the third-longest quarterly winning streak since at least the early 1970s. The longest was 12 quarters ending fourteen years ago in Q3 2011, while the second longest ended at nine in Q4 2020.
Besides the 16% gain last quarter, gold has also had three other double-digit percentage quarterly gains during the current streak. In total, gold’s price has more than doubled in the last eight quarters, and as shown in the chart below, it has been the largest eight-quarter gain since Q1 1981. Most people have literally never seen anything like it!
The Closer – TSM Premium, Loans, EV Records – 10/2/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the premium in shares of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) trading in the US versus abroad (page 1) followed by a dive collapses of loan and crude prices (page 2 and 3). Next up, we dive into alternative data in the form of freight truck orders (page 3), housing inventories and prices (pages 4 and 5), and vehicle sales (page 6).
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