Chart of the Day: The Emerging Markets Flowpocalypse
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/16/26 – Semis Leading Without the Big Guns
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“Our conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend remains high and we believe the demand for semiconductors will continue to be very fundamental.” – C.C. Wei, President and CEO, Taiwan Semiconductor
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Before getting to this morning’s note, last night we updated our Bespoke Baskets, where we made two changes to the Growth basket and no changes to the Dividend Income basket. You can view the full update here.
Also, be sure to watch our discussion on markets with Brian Sullivan in a CNBC appearance yesterday.
Futures are indicated higher again this morning as the S&P 500 looks to add to its record highs from yesterday, in what has been one of the most rapid turnarounds in market history. Treasury yields are also lower, while crude oil is just fractionally higher. Both gold and Bitcoin have also shown very modest moves in either direction.
In Asia overnight, most major benchmarks were higher, with the Nikkei up over 2% and China up roughly 1%. In Europe, we’re also seeing gains with the STOXX 600 up 0.4%.
The pace of earnings continues to pick up, but this morning’s focus has been on economic data, and the news was good as both jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing report exceeded expectations. Lastly, in Fedpseak, NY Fed President John Williams is speaking right now, and he commented that “the No. 1 topic related to the economy is the Middle East conflict, which has introduced substantial risks and heightened uncertainty”.
Since it’s not a US company, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) doesn’t get a lot of attention in US stock market coverage, which is a mistake. With a market cap of just under $2 trillion, it’s one of the ten largest publicly traded companies in the world. TSM is the linchpin of the global semiconductor supply chain and the global digital economy for that matter. As much as the Iran war has disrupted energy supplies and threatened to derail the global economy, in a scenario where semiconductor supplies from TSM were cut off for an extended period, it would be an economic calamity.
Thankfully, that’s not the case. Overnight, TSM reported better-than-expected EPS and sales and raised guidance. As highlighted in the quote above, the company sees no signs of a slowdown in demand. Revenues rose 40.6% y/y on incredible gross margins of 66.2%.
TSM’s results for Q1 were nothing new and continued a trend of strong results since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. In the 14 quarters since that launch, the company has reported better-than-expected EPS results 13 times, exceeded sales results nine times, and raised guidance nine times. As shown in the table below, while results relative to expectations were shaky early on in the bull market, more recent results have been consistently strong, with six triple plays in its last seven reports.
Despite the strong results overnight, shares of TSM are trading modestly lower in the pre-market and failed to make a new high in yesterday’s trading, even as the broader market and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) specifically hit new highs yesterday. That’s not to say that the stock hasn’t been a strong performer, though, more than doubling in the last twelve months.
TSM is the second-largest stock in the SOX on a market cap basis, trailing Nvidia (NVDA) by a wide margin. Like TSM, though, NVDA also didn’t join the SOX or the S&P 500 in hitting a new high yesterday. The fact that the SOX has managed to make new highs without the participation of its two largest members illustrates how broad the underlying strength in the sector has been.
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New All-Time Highs; Bull Market Confirmed
After falling 9.9% from its last all-time high in January to its low eleven trading days ago on March 30th, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high today.
It’s usually the case that asset prices “take the stairs up and elevator down,” but for the S&P recently, it did the opposite by taking the stairs down and the elevator back up!
The bull market that began on October 12th, 2022 — which we’ve dubbed the “AI Bull” — had been on hold since the S&P made its last all-time closing high on 1/27.
Today’s new high reconfirms the current bull and extends its length to 1,281 calendar days.
As shown in our table of historical bull and bear markets below, though, 1,000+ day bull markets are nothing new for investors.
This is the 10th bull market that has lasted 1,000+ days, and it’s also the 10th longest in history. To surpass the 1,324-day bull that ran from June 1962 to February 1966 and move into 9th place, this bull only needs to make it to May 29th.
To move into first place for the longest bull market ever, this bull would need to make it all the way to February 1st, 2035.
The 4,494 days we went from 12/4/87 to 3/24/00 without experiencing a 20% peak to trough decline (on a closing basis) may be a more untouchable record than Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hit streak!
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The Closer – Rapid Rebound, Beige Book, Record Surplus – 4/15/26
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- Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P has made new all-time highs in 11 days or fewer after falling 5-10%.
- Beige Book mentions of optimistic terms rose to the highest levels since June of 2022.
- The US saw record crude and crude product exports during the week of April 10th.
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Bespoke Baskets Update – April 2026
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: BlackRock (BLK)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers BlackRock’s (BLK) Q1 2026 earnings call.
BlackRock (BLK) is the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing trillions across ETFs (iShares), active funds, private markets, and its Aladdin risk/portfolio technology platform. The company delivered a strong Q1 with $130B in net inflows, 8% organic base fee growth, and 27% revenue growth. The call centered on three big ideas: (1) clients consolidating assets with fewer firms, benefiting BlackRock’s “whole portfolio” model; (2) private credit demand staying strong on the institutional side despite some retail noise, with spreads widening and opportunity improving; and (3) retirement reform, especially the push to bring private assets into 401(k)s, as a major long-term growth driver. Management also highlighted rising demand for international exposures, continued momentum in ETFs and direct indexing (Aperio), and the role of AI in driving infrastructure investment and data needs. Shares rose 3.1% on 4/14 in reaction to the better-than-expected results…
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Citigroup (C)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Citigroup’s (C) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Citigroup (C) is one of the world’s largest financial institutions, providing banking, payments, trading, and wealth management services to corporations, governments, and consumers across more than 90 countries. Citi delivered a strong Q1 with $5.8B in net income and 14% revenue growth, driven by standout performance in Services (+17%) and Markets (best quarter in a decade, equities +40%). Management emphasized resilience in US consumers (card spend +5%, improving credit) while flagging rising macro risks from Middle East conflict and inflation. Services continue to be a key differentiator, with mandates up 40% and cross-border activity +12%, reinforced by investments in tokenization and real-time payments. Investment banking remains active, especially M&A, though sponsors are more cautious. The stock was up 2.7% on 4/14 after posting better-than-expected results, and it’s up almost 23% since 3/30…
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Chart of the Day – Quick Turnaround
An Important Lesson for Investors
Just over two weeks ago on March 30th, every single key US index ETF that we track in our Trend Analyzer tool (available to Premium members and higher) was oversold, with all but the Dow 30 ETF in extreme oversold territory.
Fear was permeating and bearish sentiment gauges were rising sharply.
Fast forward to two weeks later.
As shown below, these same index ETFs are now all in overbought territory (with the exception of the Dow 30).
For investors and traders, the action over the last few weeks is a good reminder that markets don’t stay oversold or overbought forever.
If you’re fearful when prices get oversold or ebullient when prices get overbought, try to remind yourself that the script will eventually flip.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/15/26 – War Reversals
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“We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.” – Winston Churchill
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
In an unusual picture relative to the post-war periods, US equity futures aren’t showing much in the way of gains or losses. Treasury yields and crude oil are modestly higher, while gold and Bitcoin are slightly lower. Asian stocks were higher overnight, and European stocks are mixed in early trading. Empire Manufacturing and Import Prices both just hit the tape, wth Empire exceeding forecasts while Import Prices came in weaker than expected.
It’s been ten trading days since the S&P 500’s Iran war low, and during that time, the index has rallied just under 10%. Along with that impressive gain, four sectors have rallied more than 10%, including Communication Services and Technology, which are up over 15%. Not bad for two weeks! It’s been almost an everything rally over the last two weeks as the only two sectors to trade lower are Energy and Consumer Staples, although while the latter has only experienced a marginal decline, the former is down over 10%.
Sector moves over the last two weeks have largely been a reversal of the moves since the start of the war. Energy was the only sector to rally from 2/27 through 3/30, and it’s easily the worst performer since then, erasing all its Iran war gain. Conversely, the Technology sector has also more than erased its losses from 2/27 through 3/30. Technology is also a standout. It held up relatively well on the way down (5th best performing sector), but it has still been the second-best performing sector on the way up. Another notable sector has been Consumer Staples. While no sector traded higher in both the periods from 2/27 through 3/30 and since 3/30, Consumer Staples is the only sector to trade lower in both periods.
Have you done your taxes yet? With today being the Federal Tax deadline, we wanted to highlight the S&P 500’s performance leading up to and after 4/15. The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 in the week before 4/15, dating back to 1990. During that period, the S&P 500’s median performance has been a gain of 0.55% with positive returns 54% of the time. Just looking at the chart, the market has been trendless leading up to the tax deadline.
Market performance in the week after Tax Day has shown an evolving pattern over the last several years. While the S&P 500’s median performance in the week after 4/15 has been the same as its performance in the week before Tax Day, there has been a weakening pattern since the turn of the century. The S&P 500’s post-Tax Day performance peaked with a 5.75% gain in the week after Tax Day in 2000, and since then, it has been gradually trending lower to the point where the S&P 500 has declined in the week after for five straight years.
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