Chart of the Day – Semis Outperforming
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Texas Instruments (TXN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Texas Instruments’ (TXN) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Texas Instruments (TXN) is one of the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturers, specializing in analog and embedded processing chips that power everything from industrial automation systems and electric vehicles to personal electronics and communications infrastructure. In Q1, TXN reported revenue of $4.1B, up 11% YoY, as signs of recovery spread across end markets, especially industrial, which grew upper-single digits sequentially after seven straight declines. Executives believe we’re at the bottom of the semiconductor cycle, with customer inventories “very, very short” across the board. Tariffs and geopolitical tension remain key watchpoints, but TXN emphasized its “geopolitically dependable capacity” and global footprint, citing dual-source manufacturing and flexibility as advantages. The team noted stronger-than-usual seasonality in Q2 guidance, driven more by broad recovery than by tariff-related pull-forwards. Competition from Chinese chipmakers is intensifying, but TXN is leaning on scale, breadth, and inventory availability to defend its position. The stock opened up 8% on 4/24 after the better-than-expected results…
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Rotation Underway
In last night’s Closer, we provided an analysis we frequently run to help identify trends within price action: our decile analysis. This analysis ranks S&P 500 members by a variety of metrics, placing them into ten equal sized groups. We then show the average performance for each group. As might be expected, this week’s rebound in equity prices has been largely rotational following weakness after “Liberation Day”. The chart below shows the average performance for S&P 500 members since Monday’s close for deciles of performance from Liberation Day through Monday’s low. As shown, the deciles of stocks that had been the worst performers for most of April have shifted to the top performers on average in the past few days. Meanwhile, the few stocks that had risen from April 2 to Monday have continued to average a gain, although that move higher has been much more modest.
To give some more color to the range of returns earlier this month, below we show those same deciles, except instead of performance since Monday, each bar shows those deciles’ average performance from Liberation Day through Monday’s close. As shown, the index’s 50 worst performers averaged a decline of over 20% decile during that time, and deciles 2 through 4 also all experienced average declines of at least 10%. On the other end of the spectrum, the top performers saw a much smaller move with an average gain of around 2%.
Diving further into that 10th decile of top performers this month, below we show the 38 S&P 500 stocks that managed to buck the trend and rise from Liberation Day until Monday’s close. Especially when compared to the over 20% average decline for the worst performers, these moves were relatively tame, with most being low single-digit gainers. In fact, only one stock rose more than 10%, and that was Newmont Mining (NEM), which has been bolstered by huge gains in the price of gold. Other gainers similarly have defensive tones, although it is not exclusive to those sectors. Notably, defense contractors are frequent fliers on this list in addition. Since Monday’s low, 60% of these stocks have continued to rally with the largest gains being observed by Netflix (NFLX) and Palantir (PLTR).
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Chipotle (CMG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Chipotle’s (CMG) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Chipotle (CMG) is a fast-casual restaurant chain known for customizable burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads. With nearly 3,800 locations across North America and a growing international presence, CMG serves value-conscious consumers who prioritize food integrity, convenience, and customization. CMG’s Q1 sales rose 6%, though same-store sales dipped 0.4% as consumer pullback pressured transactions. CMG’s new Honey Chicken LTO outperformed all past launches, helping offset softness. Tariffs (aluminum, beef, packaging) are expected to weigh 50bps on COGS, but supply chain offsets and equipment rollouts (like the produce slicer) are improving throughput and margins. International growth accelerated with new partnerships in Mexico and expansion in the Middle East. Marketing spend will rise in Q2, especially in digital. The brand’s affordability, $10 average entrée, and hospitality push aim to defend its edge as the broader consumer tightens spending. On mixed results, CMG shares traded roughly flat on 4/24…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/24/25 – Still Lagging
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The lack of a sense of history is the damnation of the modern world.” – Robert Penn Warren
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After two days of solid gains, US equity futures are lower this morning but off their lows as the S&P 500 is indicated to open down 0.31%. After the last several trading days, though, investors could probably use a breather, as four of the last five trading days have seen gains or losses of at least 1.5%. Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed but mostly higher, even as the Chinese government pushed back on claims from the US Administration that the two sides are talking to de-escalate the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. In Europe, equities are seeing very modest losses.
Outside of equities, Treasury yields are lower with the 10-year trading down to 4.34%, oil is 1% higher, gold is rebounding after Wednesday’s sharp decline, and Bitcoin is down 1% but still over $92K.
Earnings news since yesterday’s close has generally been positive, but a negative reaction to IBM’s results has the stock trading down 7%, which is contributing to a more than 100-point decline in the Dow.
On the economic calendar, we’ll get Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims 8:30, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10 and the KC Fed regional manufacturing report at 11. Of these reports, jobless claims will be the most important to watch for any signs of weakness due to the impact of tariffs.
While the last two trading days have been strong for US stocks, performance over the last five trading days has been weak, lagging the rest of the world. As shown in the snapshot below, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 0.41% over the last five trading days, which keeps it over 5% below its 50-day moving average (DMA) and down over 8% for the year. Relative to other regional international ETFs, SPY is the only one down YTD, and along with Emerging Markets (EEM), the only one below its 50-DMA as well.
The weakness in US stocks has been extremely evident in investor sentiment. This week’s survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that bearish sentiment declined from 56.9% to 55.6%, but that still extends the streak of readings where bears were at 50% or more to a record nine weeks. In the entire history of the survey dating back to 1987, there have only been three other periods where bears were at 50% or more of total respondents for even five straight weeks.
The Closer – Rotation, Bessent, Beige Book – 4/23/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a rundown of the latest earnings reports (page 1), we review today’s price action through a decile analysis (page 2). We then review the latest flash PMIs (page 3) and take a quantified look at the Beige Book (pages 4 and 5). We then close out the report with a look into new home sales (page 6).
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Capital One (COF)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Capital One’s (COF) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Capital One (COF) is known for its position in credit cards, auto lending, and digital-first consumer banking. It serves over 100 million customers across the US. This quarter, COF emphasized improving credit trends, with delinquencies and charge-offs declining on a seasonally adjusted basis. Domestic card revenue rose 7% YoY, and auto originations jumped 22%. Marketing spend was up 19%, with a sharp focus on acquiring high-spending customers and expanding the digital banking franchise. Management maintained confidence in consumer strength but increased downside weighting in its reserve model due to macro uncertainty. The Discover (DFS) acquisition, set to close on May 18th, dominated the call, with long-term ambitions to expand the Discover network globally while leveraging Capital One’s tech infrastructure. On mixed results, COF shares were up as much as 6.75% on 4/23…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: 3M (MMM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers 3M’s (MMM) Q1 2025 earnings call.
3M (MMM) is a global manufacturing company best known for turning science into practical applications across industrial, healthcare, consumer, and electronics markets. Its portfolio spans over 60,000 products, from Post-it Notes and medical dressings to advanced adhesives, abrasives, and optical films used in data centers and aerospace. The company operates through major segments like Safety & Industrial, Transportation & Electronics, and Consumer. On its Q1 call, management highlighted an accelerated product launch cadence and improved on-time delivery rates. However, the spotlight was on tariffs, $850M in annualized exposure, as 3M is working quickly to mitigate the $400M 2025 hit through sourcing shifts, factory flexibility, and “surgical” price actions. Order momentum and backlog growth (+low-teens) were positive, but caution remains around macro softness in autos, Europe, and consumer electronics. The full-year EPS guide was held at $7.60–$7.90 amid rising uncertainty. MMM was up 8.4% on 4/22 on better-than-expected results…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for MMM by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Tesla (TSLA)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Tesla’s (TSLA) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Tesla (TSLA) is a leader in electric vehicles, battery energy storage, and AI-powered automation. It designs and manufactures EVs such as the Model Y, Model 3, Cybertruck, and Semi, alongside battery products like the Megapack and Powerwall. TSLA is also pioneering full self-driving (FSD) software, humanoid robots (Optimus), and advanced factory automation through its “unboxed” manufacturing approach. With deep vertical integration, from lithium refining to AI chip design, TSLA serves a broad range of customers. TSLA used Q1 to refresh the Model Y simultaneously across all global factories and sold out remaining legacy models in major markets. Autonomy dominated the call, with Elon Musk reaffirming a June pilot for paid Robotaxi rides in Austin and forecasting millions of autonomous cars by late 2025. Tariffs remain a headwind, particularly in energy, but TSLA’s regionalized supply chain (~85% USMCA-compliant) and in-house battery production help mitigate risk. Energy storage hit record gross profit despite seasonal demand softness. Musk confirmed thousands of Optimus bots will be deployed by year-end, and the revolutionary “unboxed” Cybercab production process remains on track. While the call was more upbeat, the results were not so hot. Revenue fell 9% and net income plunged 71%. Vehicle deliveries dropped 13% to 336,681 units, marking the worst quarter since 2022. Factors included Model Y production line changeovers, price cuts, and backlash over Elon Musk’s political involvement. Musk announced a reduction in his government role to refocus on Tesla, which was one catalyst for the stock’s 7% move higher on 4/23…
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