Bespoke Market Calendar — December 2024

Please click the image below to view our December 2024 market calendar.  This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month.  It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/2/24 – The Beginning of the End

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Here’s your law: If a company, can’t explain, in one sentence, what it does… it’s illegal.”  – Lewis Black

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Global equities kicked off December positively as most Asian equity benchmarks finished the first trading day of the month with gains of between 0.5% and 1.0%. In China, the 10-year yield fell to a record low just below 2% after the country’s services PMI came in weaker than expected at 50.0 even as the Manufacturing component increased modestly to 50.3. While growth in China remained anemic, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for the sixth month.

In Europe, equities have also gotten off to a positive start in December although the magnitude of the gains has been more modest with the STOXX 600 trading up just under half of a percent. Manufacturing in the region remains in contraction as the PMI index fell from 46.0 to 45.2 for its 29th straight month below 50.

US equity futures were modestly higher earlier but have now dipped slightly into negative territory as we await the December release of the ISM Manufacturing report. While it hasn’t been quite as weak as its European counterpart, the ISM index is expected to remain below 50 for the eighth month in a row and the 24th time in the last 25 months. It will be interesting to see, though, if the election results had any impact on manufacturers’ sentiment.

December 2nd may not seem like much of a day to most people, but today marks the 23rd anniversary of Enron’s bankruptcy filing. At the time, Enron was the largest corporate bankruptcy in US history, but 23 years later, it only ranks as the ninth largest. At an estimated $66 billion, Enron’s bankruptcy was less than a tenth of Lehman’s (largest ever) which occurred less than seven years later, and a fifth the size of Washington Mutual which collapsed just after Lehman. The fact that Enron’s bankruptcy was so large at the time but now pales in comparison to some of the largest illustrates once again how despite the power and strength of the US economy, never underestimate the ability of companies to screw things up and ultimately screw their employees, customers, creditors, and shareholders.

Enron’s bankruptcy hit the market at a particularly vulnerable time. Just over two months earlier, the bottom had fallen out of the market following the 9/11 attacks, but the market quickly rebounded giving hope to investors that the whoosh lower when the markets re-opened in September had been a market clearing event. Enron’s bankruptcy stopped the rally in its tracks, and after treading water for a few months, the bottom fell out of the market again as accounting scandals at Tyco and WorldCom hit the market. Enron may not have been the sole cause of the post-9/11 rally losing steam, but in bear markets, there’s always something.

Turning to the present market, the Treasury market has done its best to confuse markets in the last few months. In early September, all you would hear about was how the start of the Fed easing cycle would unleash a period of lower rates and ease borrowing costs for Americans. While short-term rates declined, the Fed has little control over the long end of the curve, and the 10-year yield made its low for the year just before the September cut. From there, the yield marched steadily higher.

Then, leading up to the election, a Trump victory was considered a harbinger of higher rates as lower taxes would balloon the deficit. The verdict is still out on what a Trump Administration will mean for the deficit as he’s not even in office, but once again, nearly the exact opposite occurred. Yields peaked shortly after the election and finished off November 11 basis points lower than where they started the month.

It’s not just longer-term Treasuries that have rallied, though. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows the performance of various Treasury and fixed-income-related ETFs. Not only have they all rallied over the last week, but they’re also mostly at or above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs).

Brunch Reads – 12/1/24

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

The Sitting Seamstress: On December 1st, 1955, Rosa Parks was arrested for refusing to give up her seat to a white man on a city bus. The 42-year-old seamstress boarded the Cleveland Avenue bus and sat in the section reserved for black passengers. Eventually, the bus reached a point where every seat was occupied leaving a white man standing. The bus driver, James F. Blake, demanded that Rosa and three other black passengers give up their seats. While the others reluctantly moved, Rosa didn’t budge.

Parks later recalled that her refusal wasn’t because she was physically tired but tired of giving in. Her refusal to stand was a quiet act of defiance that sparked something huge. She got arrested and fined, but her resistance galvanized the Montgomery Bus Boycott. Led by a young Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., this 381-day standoff against the bus system became a pivotal moment in the civil rights movement, eventually leading the Supreme Court to declare bus segregation unconstitutional. Rosa Parks’ arrest wasn’t just about a seat on a bus; it was about standing up by sitting down, a moment that inspired a movement for equality and justice.

Health & Wellness

Deflating Boobs, Shrinking Butts and Little Lips: The De-Kardashian-ification of America (The Hollywood Reporter)
The over-the-top Kardashian look is fading, replaced by a trend toward more natural, subtle cosmetic tweaks. People opt for things like lifts, smaller enhancements, and “tweakments” that freshen up their look without going overboard. Overfilled faces and dramatic fox-eye lifts are on their way out, while guys are jumping in for sharper jawlines inspired by Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise. Even smiles and skin care are getting upgrades, with AI-designed veneers and regenerative treatments making everything feel more custom and low-key. [Link]

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November 2024 Asset Class Performance

With November market action now behind us, below is a look at what worked and what didn’t during the month.  For each ETF across asset classes, we also include its performance (total return) since the close on Election Day (11/5) and on a year-to-date basis.

There’s been a stark difference in performance between US equities and international markets recently.  While most US index ETFs were up 5-10% in November, most country ETFs shown on the right side of the matrix were in the red.

In the US, small-caps surged in November with the Russell 2,000 (IWM) up 11.1%.  That compares to a gain of 5.96% for large caps (SPY).

Looking at sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) led the way in November with a gain of 12.9%.  Much of that gain is thanks to Tesla’s (TSLA) massive post-election move higher.  On the flip side, Health Care (XLV) was the weakest sector in November with only a small gain of 0.4% and a drop of 0.3% since the election.

Commodity ETFs outside of natural gas and ag have also been weak recently, especially gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) which were up huge in 2024 prior to their November pullbacks.

Click the image below to enlarge.

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Bespoke’s Matrix of Economic Indicators – 11/29/24

Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum.  We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/29/24 – Short and Sweet

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“There are far, far better things ahead than any we leave behind.” – C.S. Lewis

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

It may be a slow day in the US with a shortened session, but it’s business as usual for the rest of the world. It was a busy day for data in Japan, and most of it was weaker than expected. Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Housing Starts all missed expectations. At the same time, CPI surprised to the upside with the Core reading rising at a 2.2% y/y pace versus expectations for an increase of just 2.0%. Even with the weaker data, the yen rallied as the higher-than-expected CPI print increased the odds of a rate hike at the December meeting. The Nikkei fell 0.4% during the session, but Chinese stocks finished the day and the week in positive territory.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 is marginally higher after a positive session on Thursday. While inflation data in Japan came in hotter than expected, Eurozone CPI was up 2.3% y/y which was right in line with expectations while Core CPI was slightly weaker (2.7% vs 2.8%).

US futures are higher across the board with modest gains, and there’s no data on the calendar to speak of. Treasury yields are slightly lower, and bitcoin is looking to make another run at $100K after failing to rally through that level late last week.

The day after Thanksgiving is considered a day when stocks usually trade higher, and since 1945, the S&P 500’s average performance on the day has been a gain of 0.23% with positive returns two-thirds of the time. Looking at a long-term chart of the S&P 500’s performance on this day, though, shows that in “the old days”, it used to be a much better day.  In the 40 years from 1945 through 1953, the S&P 500’s average daily change on the Friday after Thanksgiving was a gain of 0.44% with positive returns 80% of the time, and in the 29 years from 1956 to 1984, it was down just twice! If the market was going to make you come to work the day after Thanksgiving, at least it usually gave you an up day!

Since 1985, performance the day after Thanksgiving has been more of a turkey. In the last 39 years, the S&P 500’s average performance on the Friday after Thanksgiving has been a gain of just 0.02% with positive returns just 54% of the time. Not only has today become much more of a coin flip over the last 40 years, but it has also included the worst after-Thanksgiving performances. In 2021, the S&P 500 plunged 2.27% thanks to the Omicron ‘scare’. Then in 2009, the S&P 500 dropped 1.72% on concerns about debt problems in Dubai while in 1987, it fell 1.5% as investors were still worried about the crash a month earlier.

As bad as those days all were, they weren’t a bad omen for the rest of the year. In 1987, the S&P 500 finished the year 2.8% higher, while in 2009, it rallied 2.2% into year-end. Finally, in 2021 it finished 3.7% higher.  Maybe C.S. Lewis was right, after bad Thanksgiving Fridays, “There are far, far better things ahead”!

The Closer – GDP, PCE, Data Deluge, 7y Sale – 11/27/24

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we break down today’s second reading on Q3 GDP (page 1) then move on to a review of the deluge of other data points released today including personal consumption expenditures price index data (page 2), personal income and spending (page 3), MNI Chicago PMI (page 3), and October durable goods data (page 3). We also break down another strong UST auction from this afternoon (page 3).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Best Buy (BBY)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Best Buy’s (BBY) Q3 2025 earnings call.

Best Buy (BBY) is a leading specialty retailer of consumer electronics like laptops, smartphones, home appliances, and gaming equipment. BBY is also a major player in tech services through its Geek Squad. Its operations provide a lens into consumer spending habits, technology adoption trends, and the dynamics of the electronics supply chain. BBY’s Q3 resulted in a 2.9% decline in comparable sales, as demand softened in September and October due to macroeconomic uncertainty and pre-election distractions. Despite that, categories like computing and tablets saw 5.2% growth, driven by strong laptop sales (+7%). Despite a highly promotional retail environment, targeted pricing strategies and cost controls kept profitability on track. The company anticipates Q4 comparable sales to range from flat to -3%, buoyed by early Black Friday promotions. BBY shares fell almost 5% in reaction to the results…

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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Deere (DE)

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Deere’s (DE) Q4 2024 earnings call.

Deere (DE) provides insights into global agriculture trends, rural economic, and infrastructure development as a leader in agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery. The company produces advanced equipment like tractors, combines, and precision ag technologies that benefit farmers, construction firms, and forestry operators worldwide. DE’s fiscal Q4 results outperformed expectations, sending the stock up 8% on 11/21. Despite headwinds like high interest rates and declining global agricultural demand, Deere delivered strong margins of 13.1% and net income of $1.2 billion. Inventory management was a major focus, and strategic inventory reductions, including a 15% drop in combine inventories, supported the company’s ability to navigate weak farm fundamentals while maintaining positive pricing across segments. Notable highlights included the adoption of precision technologies, with orders for See & Spray exceeding 1,000 units and connected acres growing 20% globally…

Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for DE by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan

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