Argentina ETF (ARGT) on Top in 2024
Below is a look at year-to-date total returns for 46 country ETFs available to investors on US exchanges. While the US (SPY) is sitting on a huge gain of 28.6% this year, the average year-to-date change for these country ETFs is just 8.7%, while the median is even lower at 5.8%. Keep in mind that returns also take into account any movements in the dollar.
Before we get to the biggest winners, nine country ETFs are in the red for the year. France (EWQ) is the most notable and the only G7 country that’s down in 2024. South Korea (EWY), Mexico (EWW), and Brazil (EWZ) have been the biggest losers with declines of 17%+. Brazil (EWZ) has gotten smoked with a decline of 24.3%. It’s bad enough to see a drop of 20%+, but it’s especially bad when the average country is up 8.7% and the US is up nearly 30%.
On to the positives…other than France, the other six G7 country ETFs are all up more than 10% on the year. Behind the US, Canada (EWC) has been the second-best of this group with a gain of 18%.
Interestingly, China (MCHI) and the US (SPY) are up nearly the exact same amount this year at just over 28%. Peru (EPU) ranks as the third best just ahead of SPY with a gain of 31.6%. Israel (EIS) has been the second best with a YTD gain of 34.5%. And finally, the best country ETF this year by a significant margin has been Argentina (ARGT) with a gain of 66%. US investors have so far given Argentine President Javier Milei two thumbs up…way up!
Below we highlight the price change (not total return) of country ETFs going all the way back to the COVID-Crash low on 3/23/20. While China (MCHI) is up about as much as the US (SPY) in 2024, it’s the only country ETF that’s in the red since the COVID lows.
On the flip side, Argentina (ARGT) once again crushes every other country ETF with a massive 491% gain. Behind Argentina is Greece (GREK) with a gain of 173.5%, followed closely by the US (SPY) and India (INDA), which have essentially seen the same price change of 171% since 3/23/20.
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Chart of the Day: Juan Soto Contract — Billionaire or Bust
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 12/9/24
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“I’ve got an old saying: at the poker table, you’ve got to pay to learn. You can talk all you want, but you’ve got to get in the game.” – Steve Cohen
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Even though the S&P traded higher on four of five trading days last week and finished the week up nearly 1%, the index saw more decliners than advancers (negative breadth) on all five trading days. Fortunately, the index had a streak of seven straight days of positive breadth heading into last week, so maybe it was just downside mean reversion, but we’ll be watching breadth closely over the next few days.
As shown below, eight sectors fell more than 1% last week, while three sectors gained more than 2%. Last week was a mega-cap AI-led rally, while pretty much everything else traded lower.
Brunch Reads – 12/8/24
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Day of Infamy: Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “Day of Infamy” speech, delivered on December 8th, 1941, remains one of the most iconic addresses in American history. In this brief but powerful message to Congress and the nation, Roosevelt condemned the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by Japanese forces, which occurred just the day before. The attack claimed over 2,400 American lives, destroyed much of the US Pacific Fleet, and shattered the country’s sense of security. The attack forced a nation long committed to neutrality into a global conflict that would redefine its role on the world stage.
Roosevelt outlined Japan’s surprise assault, describing it as a deliberate and unprovoked act of aggression. His measured but resolute words stirred emotions across the country, uniting a grieving and outraged public. Shortly after his speech, Congress voted nearly unanimously to declare war on Japan, signaling America’s official entry into WWII. The impact of the decision was immediate and profound. Factories mobilized for wartime production, men and women enlisted in droves, and communities rallied behind the war effort. The attack on Pearl Harbor had awakened a “sleeping giant,” as many described it.
Media
Art Cashin, New York Stock Exchange fixture for decades, dies at age 83 (CNBC)
Art Cashin, a Wall Street legend and UBS director of floor operations at the NYSE, has passed away at 83. Known for his storytelling, wit, and deep market insights, Cashin was a fixture on CNBC and a respected voice across the financial world for over 25 years. Beyond his market expertise, he was a community builder, whether through his iconic “Friends of Fermentation” gatherings or his efforts chairing the NYSE Fallen Heroes Fund after 9/11. Cashin embodied the spirit of the trading floor with his handwritten notes, rumpled suits, and timeless wisdom. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report — All About AI
In this week’s Bespoke Report, we take a deep dive into AI following the two-year anniversary of the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT AI chatbot. To read this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
The 10 Stocks Up More Than Bitcoin
As you can see in the chart below, bitcoin’s move up towards $100k leaves the cryptocurrency up 1,219% over the last five years:
We looked at stocks in the Russell 3,000 to see how many have done even better than bitcoin over the last five years. Of the stocks in the index with market caps of more than $5 billion, there are exactly ten.
Below is a list of the ten along with an AI-generated one-sentence description of what the company does. As you’ll see, the 2nd and 3rd best performers are bitcoin-related stocks, and they’re both up more than 2,000% versus bitcoin’s gain of 1,219%.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): A leader in graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming, AI, and data centers, driving advancements in computing and visual technologies.
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): A business intelligence and analytics software provider, also known for its significant investments in Bitcoin.
- MARA (MARA): A cryptocurrency mining company focusing on Bitcoin mining using blockchain technology.
- Modine Manufacturing (MOD): Designs and manufactures thermal management solutions, including heating and cooling products for vehicles and industrial systems.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Develops high-performance, energy-efficient server and storage solutions for data centers, enterprise IT, and cloud computing.
- Celsius (CELH): A beverage company specializing in fitness-oriented energy drinks and health-focused beverages.
- GameStop Corp (GME): A retailer of video games, consumer electronics, and collectibles, with a focus on e-commerce and digital gaming.
- Tesla (TSLA): A pioneer in electric vehicles and renewable energy, known for its electric cars, solar products, and energy storage solutions.
- Antero Resources (AR): An energy company engaged in the exploration and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil.
- Sterling Infrastructure (STRL): Provides infrastructure services, including heavy civil, transportation, and building projects across the U.S.
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Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Brown-Forman (BF/B)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Brown-Forman’s (BF/B) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Brown-Forman (BF/B) is a global producer of premium spirits and wines, best known for its iconic Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey brand. The company also produces tequila brands Herradura and el Jimador, premium whiskeys like Woodford Reserve, and rums such as Diplomatico. Its global reach and product breadth offer valuable insights into consumer trends across geographies when it comes to alcohol. Brown-Forman’s first half of fiscal 2025 unfolded as it expected, with flat organic net sales YoY. Jack Daniel’s RTDs (ready-to-drink) saw strong growth, with new flavors and geographic expansion highlighted, while Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey showed sequential improvement in US consumer takeaway trends. Tequila brands faced headwinds in the US and Mexico, offset by strong growth in markets like Brazil. Emerging markets delivered 6% organic sales growth, led by Türkey and Brazil, while developed markets faced softer conditions. Tariff uncertainties for American whiskey exports to Europe and tequila imports from Mexico remain a key risk. Despite these challenges, Brown-Forman reaffirmed its guidance, supported by innovation and premiumization. On results that topped analyst estimates, the stock rallied 10.7% on 12/5, making up ground after a rather steep decline over the last month…
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Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — December 2024
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/6/24 – Jobs Day – Just Right
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“It is not heroes that make history, but history that makes heroes.” – Joseph Stalin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures saw little movement as US investors awaited the big November jobs report, in which payrolls were expected to bounce back from October’s hurricane-related weak print. The report was just released, and investors got just about what they expected. Headline jobs was slightly higher than expected (227K vs 220K), and October’s print was revised modestly lower. The Unemployment Rate ticked up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% which was a tick higher than expected, and average hourly earnings were up 4.2% y/y versus expectations for 4.1%. All in all, the report had little in the way of surprises.
Asian stocks closed out a positive week with a negative bias. Japan, India, South Korea, and Australia were all lower, but China bucked the trend with gains of over 1%. The gains there come in anticipation of next week’s Central Economic Work Conference where investors expect authorities to introduce additional measures to support growth in that ailing economy.
European equities are finishing off a positive week with additional gains this morning. The STOXX 600 is up fractionally (<0.25%) taking its gain for the week to over 2%. GDP for the region increased 0.4% which was in line with forecasts, but Industrial Production in Germany unexpectedly declined. French equities are the big winners in the region with a gain of over 1% as Macron insists that he will finish his Presidency through 2027.
As mentioned above, investors expected a rebound in the November jobs report after last month’s weaker-than-expected print. While the hurricanes in the south impacted job growth for October, last month’s report was the fourth miss relative to expectations in the last seven reports and the biggest miss (-88K) since January 2022. The market hoped for a better November report… but not too much, and that’s exactly what it got. In response, market pricing for a December cut now stands at just about 90%.
Now that everyone has discovered digital gold, is the physical version on its way to becoming a paperweight? After peaking just above $2,800 per ounce at the end of October, gold prices declined as much as 9% to their lows in mid-November, but after a bounce still remain down over 5% hovering right around $2,650 per ounce.
A look at the chart shows a delicate picture. Gold broke its uptrend from the summer just after the election and then surrendered the 50-DMA just days later. From that mid-November low, it rallied back above its 50-DMA but stalled out right below its former uptrend line. These failures at a former key trendline can often signal a shift in trend, and another attempted rally after Thanksgiving has failed at the 50-DMA which is now starting to roll over. The next few days will be critical; it will either break above its short-term downtrend from the October high or below what looks like a very short-term uptrend line from the mid-November low.
As is usually the case, the move in the gold mining stocks has followed a similar path, but with wider swings. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was in an upward trending channel for about six months dating back to late May but broke below the low end of that range as well as its 50-DMA just two days after the election. GDX managed to find some support at its 200-DMA – a level it hasn’t traded below since March, but already appears to be running out of momentum and starting to roll over. Judging by the President-elect’s various real estate holdings, no one seems to love gold more than him, but his victory in November hasn’t been good for anything related to gold.
Getting back to the original question over whether Bitcoin has become a substitute for physical gold, there are certainly some aspects where it could serve as a substitute. Less than a month ago, though, gold was at record highs, so it will take more than a month of weakness and a decline of less than 10% for us to get the hammer out and start putting the nails in gold’s coffin.
The Closer – Trade Balance, AI After Two Years – 12/5/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look into the low volatility recently (page 1) in addition to the latest trade data (page 2 and 3). We also check in on some earnings (page 3) and then review the latest housing data from Realtor.com (pages 4 and 5) and then take a look at the performance of our AI baskets since the release of ChatGPT (page 6).
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