The Triple Play Report — 12/13/24
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 24 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Sportradar (SRAD) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play, its first since its IPO in 2021. The stock rallied 13% in reaction to the triple play on 11/7, which has subsequently triggered further gains putting the stock up about 40% since the beginning of November. That’s an impressive six weeks! Despite the gains, shares remain roughly 35% below their IPO price, so they still have ground to make up.
SRAD works as the behind-the-scenes engine driving everything from live game updates to sports betting platforms. The company partners with big leagues like the NBA, NHL, and more, collecting and distributing real-time statistics to media outlets, sportsbooks, and leagues worldwide. They also use advanced technology to spot suspicious betting patterns. What makes SRAD particularly interesting is its position at the intersection of two booming trends: the global rise of legal sports betting, and the increasing demand for real-time, data-driven fan experiences. As the betting markets expand, especially in the US, SRAD’s services are becoming indispensable for sportsbooks looking to provide accurate odds and more engaging features to bring more business to their platforms. There have also been several companies that we’ve recently covered noting the growing popularity of sports, whether it be the recent and upcoming Olympics, World Cup, College Football, and NFL playoffs, or the broader rise of women’s sports as seen with women’s college basketball and the WNBA. Sports is undoubtedly a hot place to be. Additionally, SRAD’s embrace of AI and predictive analytics also sets them apart and brings them into the AI slipstream, allowing them to offer next-gen insights that could redefine how fans and businesses interact with sports. You can read more about SRAD and the 23 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Broadcom (AVGO)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Broadcom’s (AVGO) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Broadcom (AVGO) develops advanced chips for networking, broadband, wireless, and storage applications, while its software portfolio supports data center virtualization, cybersecurity, and enterprise solutions. AVGO serves hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs, providing critical components for AI workloads, cloud computing, and telecommunications. In Q4, AVGO reported revenue up 51% YoY to $14.1 billion. AI was a standout, contributing $12.2 billion in fiscal 2024, up 220%, driven by custom AI accelerators and networking growth of 158%. VMware’s integration boosted infrastructure software revenue to $5.8 billion. Semiconductor revenue hit $8.2 billion, with AI networking comprising 76% of networking revenue. AVGO also highlighted a $60–90 billion serviceable AI market opportunity by 2027. Forward guidance projects Q1 revenue of $14.6 billion, driven by AI’s 65% growth and software expansion, underscoring its strategic pivot to AI dominance. On the AI optimism, AVGO shares were up 20% on Friday morning despite a narrow miss on the top line…
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The Bespoke Report — 12/13/24 – ‘Tis the Season
As we continue to work on our 2025 Annual Outlook report due out next Friday, this week’s Bespoke Report provides an update on everything going on in markets and includes our popular investment stats in bullet-point format. To read this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/13/24 – Lucky Friday the 13th?
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“In general, things either work out or they don’t, and if they don’t, you figure out something else, a plan B.” – Dick Van Dyke
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
gain of 0.40% with positive returns just under 62% of the time!
Before you go out and buy everything this morning, though, there’s a big caveat to that average; one of the better market days on record occurred on March 13th, 2020 when the S&P 500 rallied 9.3%! If you take that out, the average S&P 500 performance on Friday the 13th falls by more than half to 0.15%. Still not terrible, though.
The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance on each individual Friday the 13th since 1999. Big downside moves on Friday the 13th have been uncommon with just three days out of 42 where the S&P 500 fell more than 1% (December 2002, April 2012, and November 2015) while there have been seven days that rallied more than 1%. Who knows? Since Friday the 13th historically hasn’t been that unlucky for the market, maybe we’ll finally get a day of positive breadth!
The Closer – Bad Breadth, Flow of Funds Deep Dive – 12/12/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with an overview of how bad breadth has been (page 1) followed by a dive into the rate hike in Brazil (page 2). We then take a deep dive into the Fed’s massive Flow of Fund report which received an update today. We cover topics like household net worth, debt growth, delinquencies, bank income, and more (pages 3 – 9). We finish with an overview of the week long bond reopening (page 10).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day: Sticky Inflation
General Electric (GE), Spin-Offs, and Dividends
Back in March, long-standing blue chip company General Electric (GE) spun-off and merged its energy businesses (formerly GE Power, GE Digital, and GE Renewable Energy) into GE Veranova (GEV). Since the spin-off on March 27, GEV is the second best performing stock in the S&P 500 with a 161.9% gain. That is second only to the near-200% gain in shares of Palantir (PLTR) in that same span and compares to a 15.76% gain for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, parent company General Electric (GE) has slightly outperformed the S&P 500 with a 16.5% gain while another one of its semi-recent spin-offs (occurring in January of last year), GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC), is down double-digits.
The S&P U.S. Spin-Off Index measures the performance of companies that have a market cap of at least $1 billion and have been spun-off of a parent within the past four years. In the chart below, we show the return of this index versus the S&P 500 over the past decade. As shown, spin-offs have offered respectable returns albeit coming up short of that of the S&P 500. On a relative strength basis, spin-offs were actually outperforming the broader market throughout 2014 into 2017, but the trend has shifted out of favor in the past several years. With that being said, the recent strong run in GEV among others has meant that the relative strength line has made a considerable pivot higher in recent months.
Of course, in being one of the best performing S&P 500 stocks this year, GEV also leads in performance since the spring among other spin-offs. In the table below, we show the members of the spin-off index in addition to when they were spun-off, their performance since GEV’s spin-off, and their dividend yields. The only one of these companies holding a candle to GEV has been Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) which has also more than doubled since the spring. Conversely, there are ten that have fallen in that span.
In addition to its big rally, GEV is also worth mentioning because in a press release earlier this week the stock instated a dividend and announced a buyback. Among the aforementioned spin-off stocks, about half pay a dividend and GEV’s new dividend yield of just 0.3% is at the lower end of these names. The $0.25 payout goes ex-dividend on December 19 with it planned to be paid out in late January.
Switching over to the parent company, General Electric (GE) is an interesting story with a dividend history worth mentioning. Currently, GE has the 14th lowest dividend yield among dividend payers in the S&P 500 Industrials sector. While the sector itself doesn’t have a particularly large yield, almost half (45%) of its member stocks have a larger yield than the S&P 500. For GE, the company had an impressive 32 year run of raising its dividend annually from 1977 through 2009. However, hard times during the Financial Crisis resulted in that dividend to get slashed. The 2010s saw the company undergo significant restructurings which have clearly continued into today. Those culminated in another big cut in the dividend in 2017 and 2018. After the continued restructurings, in the current iteration, General Electric is focused primarily on the aerospace business. While the stock’s price has rebounded (currently it is around some of the highest levels since 2008), the dividend yield is a shell of its former self. With that being said, GE raised its dividend by 20 cents in the first quarter of the year, marking the first time GE raised its dividend since 2016.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/12/24 – PPI Hot, Claims Cool
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“You only live once, and the way I live, once is enough.” – Frank Sinatra
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Heading into today’s PPI report, US equity futures took a breather after yesterday’s rally. While S&P 500 futures were just marginally lower, Nasdaq futures were down by a more sizable amount, indicating a decline of nearly 0.5%. Yields are up by a couple of basis points across the curve, crude oil is back above $70, and Bitcoin has held above $100K overnight for now at least.
The just-released November PPI came in hotter than expected at the headline level (0.4% vs 0.2%) and October’s reading was revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%. Ex food and energy, producer prices were inline with forecasts at 0.2%. While inflation data was on the hot side, jobless claims were weak. Initial claims spiked up to 242K versus forecasts for a reading of 220K while continuing claims also came in 9K higher than expected at 1.886 million. In response to the data, equity futures added modestly to their pre-market losses while yields erased most of their morning increases.
The Nasdaq broke out to a record high yesterday, and the S&P 500 finished within one-tenth of a percentage point shy of hitting its 58th record closing high this year, and the S&P 500 is up 27.5% for the year. With numbers like these, you can’t fault investors for being optimistic about the stock market. By just about every sentiment measure out there, investors have embraced the bull market, but many of the indicators we track seem somewhat restrained relative to the magnitude of the market’s gains.
Take the weekly sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). In the latest update this week, bullish sentiment declined from 48.3% to 43.3%. Bulls still outnumber bears by over ten percentage points, but current levels are hardly extreme, and the weekly reading has been higher on just over 20% of all other weekly readings since the start of 2009.
Taking a closer look at bullish sentiment during the current bull market, the peak sentiment reading was just under a year ago on 12/21/23 when bullish sentiment reached 52.9%. Back in July shortly before the August pullback, bullish sentiment got close to that December reading reaching a level of 52.7%. Since then, bullish sentiment has been gradually trending lower with multiple lower highs and lower lows.
One reason sentiment has remained contained lies in the fact that breadth has been incredibly weak in recent days. As noted yesterday, the S&P 500’s daily breadth reading has been negative for eight straight trading days. Just over the last five trading days, the S&P 500 is essentially unchanged (-0.03%), but nine out of eleven sectors are lower with five down over 2%! Not exactly what you would associate with a year-end rally.
The Closer – CPI, Wages, Strong 10s – 12/11/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look into today’s CPI data (pages 1 and 2) in addition to wage growth and yields (page 3). We then review today’s very strong 10-year note reopening (page 4) and petroleum inventory data (page 5).
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