Annual Outlook — 2025 Pros and Cons
Our Bespoke Report – 2025 Pros and Cons is now available for Bespoke subscribers. This report covers everything you need to know about the set-up for financial markets and the economy heading into 2025. If there’s ever a “must-read” Bespoke report, this is it!
- Another year is in the books! In early December, we discussed how the market had every reason to rally given the macro backdrop. The market was broadening, the economy was strong, earnings growth was positive, the Fed was our friend, and seasonality was in the market’s favor. November’s election results only added more fuel to the fire as the incoming administration wants a much lighter regulatory touch.
- The backdrop was positive, but the question was how much could the market keep rallying on the same news. As the month has progressed, investors have started asking that question, and the honeymoon for all that could go right turned to a reality check. The difficulty in passing a funding bill as we write this highlights the fact that the Republican party has several factions that aren’t always in agreement, and with such a slim majority, getting things accomplished may not be as easy as originally thought.
- Besides politics, the broadening that started in the summer saw a sharp reversal in December as the S&P 500 had a record streak of negative daily breadth readings. Fed Chair Powell also reminded markets that while the Fed may not be a bull’s enemy, if you want a friend, get a dog. From a seasonality perspective, as the year winds down, the market is still in the middle of its strongest six-month period of the year, but the seasonal tailwinds aren’t as steady as they have been.
- None of these issues are insurmountable, but they serve as a reminder to keep investors honest.
- To help lay the groundwork for the year ahead, we’ve published our 2025 Pros and Cons report.
You can read our 2025 Pros and Cons by signing up for our 2025 All Access Special that gets you the first two months of Bespoke Institutional access for just $20, or start a two-week trial to our Bespoke Premium plan. You can review our membership plans here to help make your decision.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 12/20/24 – December of Discontent
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It’s so much darker when a light goes out than it would have been if it had never shone.” – John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It doesn’t officially start until tomorrow, but already it has been a December of discontent for bulls as breadth has been negative for a record 14 straight trading days and looks likely to extend that streak to 15. This kind of consistent broad weakness is unprecedented, and it’s reflected in the performance of the eleven sector ETFs and where they’re trading relative to their short-term trading ranges. Every one of them is down at least 2% in the last five trading days, and three have dropped at least 6%. Just two sectors headed into today above their 50-day moving averages, and seven have dropped into oversold territory, including six in ‘extreme’ oversold territory (more than two standard deviations below their 50-DMAs).
Bespoke Stat Sheet — 2024
We’ve put together a slide deck featuring some of our favorite stats published throughout the year. In this report we provide a month-by-month review of some of the most important and interesting market stats as they happened in real time, in bullet point format. Enjoy!
You can read our Bespoke Stat Sheet — 2024 by signing up for any of our three membership levels. Enter the coupon code “OUTLOOK” at checkout for a 20% discount on your first charge. You can review our membership levels here to help make your decision.
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The Closer – FDX and NKE, Leading Index Streak, Existing Home Sales – 12/19/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a recap of FedEx (FDX) and Nike (NKE) earnings (page 1) followed by a rundown of the latest leading index and 5 Fed data (page 2). We also check in on existing home sales (page 3) before closing out with a recap of today’s horrendous 5 year TIPS reopening (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day – Volatility Spikes
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 12/19/24
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Being very early and being wrong look exactly the same 99% of the time.” – Seth Klarman
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As shown below, the S&P 500 was sitting slightly in overbought territory heading into the trading day yesterday, but it finished below its 50-day moving average.
An already oversold 10-day advance/decline (A/D) line for the S&P got even more oversold yesterday with just 19 stocks in the index up on the day versus 483 that were down. Yesterday’s negative breadth extended the streak of days with more decliners than advancers to 13 straight; a record losing streak since 1990.
As shown below, the 10-day A/D line is now the most oversold it’s been since the bear market lows in October 2022.
The Closer – A Horrible Fed Day, Equal Weight, Construction – 12/18/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a dive into the FOMC including the changes to forecasts (pages 1 and 2) and the huge drop in equities in response (page 3). We also check in on the performance of equal weight stocks and the dollar (page 4). We then switch to a recap of today’s residential construction figures (page 5) and the latest EIA data (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke Baskets Update — December 2024
Chart of the Day – Losing Streaks Highlighting Bad Breadth
Fixed Income Weekly — 12/18/24
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes for the next two weeks!
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