Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/25/25 – Three-Peat
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“I always tell the truth. Even when I lie.” – Al Pacino
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view yesterday’s interview on CNN’s OutFront, click on the image below.
After three strong days for stocks following the plunge to start the week, the week looks to be ending on a down note following the publication of an interview by Time magazine with President Trump. The interview took place on Tuesday, so the comments are for intents past their shelf life based on the White House news cycle, but they reinforce the notion that when it comes to this Administration, policy is a moving target.
Earnings news was mixed overnight, but the most high-profile report came from Alphabet (GOOGL), and the stock is trading up in response. The only economic report on the calendar is Michigan Confidence. Investors will be watching the inflation expectations component of that report. Even as it has become incredibly polarized based on political leanings, the general trend has been higher, which the Fed doesn’t want to see.
Day-to-day volatility in the market has picked up since late February, and the historic 9.5% rally from April 9th sticks out like a big middle finger. That big gain also overshadows a nearly impressive run of three straight daily gains of 1.5% or more in the S&P 500. Outside of the big gain on 4/9, any of these days would have qualified as among the best days in the last six months, but having them occur on a back-to-back-to-back basis is extraordinary.
As impressive as the daily gains have been, yesterday’s rally only took the S&P 500 back to levels it opened at right after the Liberation Day ceremony in the Rose Garden and then the level it traded up to on 4/9. For bulls to breathe easier, we’ll need to see the market maintain its momentum and break above this resistance, which happens to coincide with the downtrend line from the February high.
The Closer – Cuts Coming?, Big Blue, Confusion – 4/24/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with some earnings findings of notable tech names (pages 1 and 2) followed by commentary regarding the latest headlines about the executive branch (page 3). We then dive into the latest housing data (page 4) and Business Trends and Outlook Survey findings (pages 5 – 7).
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: United Rentals (URI)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers United Rentals’ (URI) Q1 2025 earnings call.
United Rentals (URI) is the largest equipment rental company in the world, serving customers across construction, industrial, and infrastructure markets. It provides rentals for general construction equipment as well as a fast-growing portfolio of specialty solutions, including power, HVAC, trench safety, and mobile storage. With over 1,400 locations across North America, URI plays a key role in enabling large-scale infrastructure and industrial projects, offering a “one-stop shop” model. URI reported record Q1 revenue of $3.7B (+6.7% YoY) due to strong demand across infrastructure, industrial, and data center projects. Specialty rental revenue jumped 22%, and cross-selling initiatives helped drive a 12x increase in spend from a major customer. Used equipment sales hit $740M, signaling strong end-market activity. Ancillary services like fueling and delivery continued to expand. Despite tariff concerns, over 80% of 2025 CapEx is locked in. URI reaffirmed full-year guidance. The stock was up as much as 11% on 4/24…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: PepsiCo (PEP)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers PepsiCo’s (PEP) Q1 2025 earnings call.
PepsiCo (PEP) is a global food and beverage leader known for its iconic brands like Pepsi, Gatorade, Lay’s, Doritos, and Quaker. The company operates across more than 200 countries. It competes in both highly commoditized and value-added segments, offering a lens into global consumer behavior, pricing dynamics, health trends, and macroeconomic sentiment. PEP reiterated its full-year revenue outlook but cut EPS guidance, citing new tariff pressures, weaker consumer confidence, and persistent volume softness in Frito-Lay North America (FLNA). The company is executing a three-pronged turnaround strategy at FLNA (value pricing, portfolio expansion, and operational improvements) while addressing complex shifts in consumer affordability. International growth remained strong, with markets like India and Brazil offsetting weakness in China and Mexico. Regulatory readiness was a theme, as PEP accelerates the reformulation of products like Lay’s to remove artificial colors. Executives also flagged rising GLP-1 adoption as a factor influencing portion sizes and demand for protein, fiber, and hydration, which PEP is actively targeting with innovation. The stock was down about 5% on 4/24 after posting mixed results…
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Chart of the Day – Semis Outperforming
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Texas Instruments (TXN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Texas Instruments’ (TXN) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Texas Instruments (TXN) is one of the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturers, specializing in analog and embedded processing chips that power everything from industrial automation systems and electric vehicles to personal electronics and communications infrastructure. In Q1, TXN reported revenue of $4.1B, up 11% YoY, as signs of recovery spread across end markets, especially industrial, which grew upper-single digits sequentially after seven straight declines. Executives believe we’re at the bottom of the semiconductor cycle, with customer inventories “very, very short” across the board. Tariffs and geopolitical tension remain key watchpoints, but TXN emphasized its “geopolitically dependable capacity” and global footprint, citing dual-source manufacturing and flexibility as advantages. The team noted stronger-than-usual seasonality in Q2 guidance, driven more by broad recovery than by tariff-related pull-forwards. Competition from Chinese chipmakers is intensifying, but TXN is leaning on scale, breadth, and inventory availability to defend its position. The stock opened up 8% on 4/24 after the better-than-expected results…
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Rotation Underway
In last night’s Closer, we provided an analysis we frequently run to help identify trends within price action: our decile analysis. This analysis ranks S&P 500 members by a variety of metrics, placing them into ten equal sized groups. We then show the average performance for each group. As might be expected, this week’s rebound in equity prices has been largely rotational following weakness after “Liberation Day”. The chart below shows the average performance for S&P 500 members since Monday’s close for deciles of performance from Liberation Day through Monday’s low. As shown, the deciles of stocks that had been the worst performers for most of April have shifted to the top performers on average in the past few days. Meanwhile, the few stocks that had risen from April 2 to Monday have continued to average a gain, although that move higher has been much more modest.
To give some more color to the range of returns earlier this month, below we show those same deciles, except instead of performance since Monday, each bar shows those deciles’ average performance from Liberation Day through Monday’s close. As shown, the index’s 50 worst performers averaged a decline of over 20% decile during that time, and deciles 2 through 4 also all experienced average declines of at least 10%. On the other end of the spectrum, the top performers saw a much smaller move with an average gain of around 2%.
Diving further into that 10th decile of top performers this month, below we show the 38 S&P 500 stocks that managed to buck the trend and rise from Liberation Day until Monday’s close. Especially when compared to the over 20% average decline for the worst performers, these moves were relatively tame, with most being low single-digit gainers. In fact, only one stock rose more than 10%, and that was Newmont Mining (NEM), which has been bolstered by huge gains in the price of gold. Other gainers similarly have defensive tones, although it is not exclusive to those sectors. Notably, defense contractors are frequent fliers on this list in addition. Since Monday’s low, 60% of these stocks have continued to rally with the largest gains being observed by Netflix (NFLX) and Palantir (PLTR).
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Chipotle (CMG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Chipotle’s (CMG) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Chipotle (CMG) is a fast-casual restaurant chain known for customizable burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads. With nearly 3,800 locations across North America and a growing international presence, CMG serves value-conscious consumers who prioritize food integrity, convenience, and customization. CMG’s Q1 sales rose 6%, though same-store sales dipped 0.4% as consumer pullback pressured transactions. CMG’s new Honey Chicken LTO outperformed all past launches, helping offset softness. Tariffs (aluminum, beef, packaging) are expected to weigh 50bps on COGS, but supply chain offsets and equipment rollouts (like the produce slicer) are improving throughput and margins. International growth accelerated with new partnerships in Mexico and expansion in the Middle East. Marketing spend will rise in Q2, especially in digital. The brand’s affordability, $10 average entrée, and hospitality push aim to defend its edge as the broader consumer tightens spending. On mixed results, CMG shares traded roughly flat on 4/24…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/24/25 – Still Lagging
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“The lack of a sense of history is the damnation of the modern world.” – Robert Penn Warren
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After two days of solid gains, US equity futures are lower this morning but off their lows as the S&P 500 is indicated to open down 0.31%. After the last several trading days, though, investors could probably use a breather, as four of the last five trading days have seen gains or losses of at least 1.5%. Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed but mostly higher, even as the Chinese government pushed back on claims from the US Administration that the two sides are talking to de-escalate the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. In Europe, equities are seeing very modest losses.
Outside of equities, Treasury yields are lower with the 10-year trading down to 4.34%, oil is 1% higher, gold is rebounding after Wednesday’s sharp decline, and Bitcoin is down 1% but still over $92K.
Earnings news since yesterday’s close has generally been positive, but a negative reaction to IBM’s results has the stock trading down 7%, which is contributing to a more than 100-point decline in the Dow.
On the economic calendar, we’ll get Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims 8:30, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10 and the KC Fed regional manufacturing report at 11. Of these reports, jobless claims will be the most important to watch for any signs of weakness due to the impact of tariffs.
While the last two trading days have been strong for US stocks, performance over the last five trading days has been weak, lagging the rest of the world. As shown in the snapshot below, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 0.41% over the last five trading days, which keeps it over 5% below its 50-day moving average (DMA) and down over 8% for the year. Relative to other regional international ETFs, SPY is the only one down YTD, and along with Emerging Markets (EEM), the only one below its 50-DMA as well.
The weakness in US stocks has been extremely evident in investor sentiment. This week’s survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that bearish sentiment declined from 56.9% to 55.6%, but that still extends the streak of readings where bears were at 50% or more to a record nine weeks. In the entire history of the survey dating back to 1987, there have only been three other periods where bears were at 50% or more of total respondents for even five straight weeks.
The Closer – Rotation, Bessent, Beige Book – 4/23/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a rundown of the latest earnings reports (page 1), we review today’s price action through a decile analysis (page 2). We then review the latest flash PMIs (page 3) and take a quantified look at the Beige Book (pages 4 and 5). We then close out the report with a look into new home sales (page 6).
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