Chart of the Day – NVIDIA (NVDA) Reversals
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/8/25 – All Shook Up
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“When things go wrong, don’t go with them.” – Elvis Presley
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We had the wrong kind of “turnaround Tuesday” yesterday. Equities opened positively and then sold off throughout the trading day as the better-than-expected ISM Services and higher-than-expected Prices Paid component pushed yields higher and stock prices lower. That weakness flowed into Asia overnight and Europe this morning where equities have been trading lower. The picture for today looks dicey again as yields continue to move higher. The 10-year yield is firmly above 4.7% and, in the UK, the 10-year yield has moved to its highest level since October 2008! There was just a brief respite in the selling of bonds as comments from Fed Governor Waller hit the tape where he said he supports rate cuts in 2025 provided the economy and inflation play out as expected, but it lasted less than a few minutes before yields were back near their highs of the day.
The ADP Employment report came in weaker than expected as total payrolls increased 122K versus forecasts for an increase of 136K. While weaker than expected, it was still a steady number and has helped to alleviate some of the pressure in bonds and stocks. Jobless claims also just hit the tape, and initial claims fell to 201K which was below forecasts while continuing claims came in higher than expected. Given the holidays, though, some of these claims numbers could be distorted.
Nowhere was yesterday’s negative reversal more pronounced than in Nvidia (NVDA). The stock opened at record highs and looked like it was going to breakout of its six-month trading range after Monday night’s keynote speech from CEO Jensen Huang. It quickly reversed lower throughout the session, though, and finished down by over 6% on the day and over 8% from its intraday high. As shown in the chart below, yesterday was the sixth time in the last year that NVDA hit an all-time high intraday but then sold off at least 4% during the trading day. While the first three are almost hard to notice given they occurred during steady uptrends for the stock, the last two marked short-term tops. While NVDA managed to stay above its 50-day moving average in yesterday’s decline, it closed closer to that level than any of the other prior reversals.
The Closer – Term Premium, Margins, Job Openings – 1/7/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a look into the term premium and income margins (page 1). We then deep dive into the latest job openings data in the form of the JOLTS report (pages 2 and 3) followed later by Indeed data (pages 5 and 6). We also review the latest trade data (page 4) and the weak 10 year note reopening (page 7).
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Chart of the Day: 10-Year Yield Stretched, Bonds Oversold
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 1/7/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.” – Peter Thiel
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Below is a quick look at the performance of stocks so far in 2025 based on how they performed in 2024 using our decile analysis. We broke the Russell 1,000 into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on 2024 total returns and then calculated the average YTD performance over the first three trading days of 2025 for the stocks in each decile. Interestingly, both the best performing stocks and worst performing stocks in 2024 have done well so far in 2025, while the stocks in the middle of the performance distribution in 2024 have lagged. As shown below, the decile of 2024’s best performing stocks are already up another 3.88% on average in 2025, while the decile of 2024’s worst performing stocks are up the second-most of any decile with an average 2025 gain of 2.7%.
The Closer – Real Yields, Battery Boom, EVs & CES – 1/6/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at real yields, WTI, and copper (page 1). We then review the massive increase in batteries’ share of durable goods shipments (page 2) followed by a check up on Ford EV sales (page 3). Next, we show one other industry outside of Tech that is often featured at CES (page 4). We round out tonight with a recap of today’s 3-year note auction (page 5) and the latest positioning data (pages 6-9).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day – Market Performance During CES
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/6/25 – Looking For Follow Through
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“.– …. .- – / …. .- – …. / –. — -.. / .– .-. — ..- –. …. – -.-.–” – Samuel Morse
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
How many times have you looked at your cell phone already today? It’s probably the first thing you did today. Whether you looked up scores, stock quotes, messages, or even got some work done, the fact that you are reading this right now all traces back to a meeting in Morristown, NJ 187 years ago where Samuel Morse demonstrated his idea of sending electrical impulses over a wire that could then be translated into text, or as he called it, the Telegraph. While that meeting in 1838 was the first telegraph demonstration, the first official telegram wouldn’t come for another six years in May 1844 when Morse sent a message from Washington, DC to Baltimore. Even though he was the first person to ever send a message over wires which ultimately led to the mass proliferation of content, if he were alive today looking at all that the telegraph has spawned, Morse would probably be at a loss for words. His thoughts would probably echo the message he sent in that first telegram, “What hath God wrought!”
Friday’s 1.26% rally was the best day for the S&P 500 since 11/6, the day after November’s election. It was also the third 1%+ daily gain in that span. The other two days were a 1.10% gain on Christmas Eve and a 1.09% gain on 12/20. While there continues to be a near constant focus on the Fed, we think it’s notable that two of the three best days since the election have come when Congress passed the continuing resolution to keep the government open and last Friday when Mike Johnson was re-elected speaker on the first vote.
While Friday’s gains sent the bulls home in an optimistic mood, it wasn’t perfect. After briefly trading back above its 50-DMA, the market pulled back in the afternoon and finished slightly below that level. It was the fourth day in a row that the S&P 500 made a run towards its 50-DMA, but also the fourth day in a row that it finished off its intraday highs. As we start the trading week, the S&P 500 is poised once again to trade back above that level, so now all it needs to do is hold it. Until then, the burden of proof is on the bulls.
Brunch Reads – 1/5/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Five Dollar Days: On January 5th, 1914, Henry Ford announced a $5 per day minimum wage for workers at his Ford Motor Company. Believe it or not, that more than doubled the wages of factory workers, and in addition, the workday was also reduced from nine to eight hours. At the time, the auto industry was booming, but working conditions in factories were grueling. Assembly line workers were responsible for repetitive and physically demanding tasks. The hours were long, and the pay was inadequate, as reflected by the high turnover. Workers were quitting weeks or, in some cases, even days into their hiring.
The key to solving the problem, in Ford’s eyes, ended up also being beneficial to him. He could retain his workers with generous wages and better hours which caused less issues with training new hires, but it also enabled his employees to afford the cars they built. That meant Ford could increase demand for his Model T by tapping into the growing middle class, which expanded with new wage increases. By treating labor more as an investment than a cost, Ford demonstrated that higher wages could improve the company’s financial performance.
Health & Wellness
The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Purchases (SSRN)
GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are changing how people shop and eat, with grocery spending dropping by 6% overall and even more for higher-income households. People are ditching processed snacks and stocking up on fresh produce and healthier options instead. Even fast-food runs are taking a hit, especially at breakfast and dinner, which could mean big changes ahead for the food industry. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 1/3/25 – Finally, a Bounce
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter provides an update on everything going on in markets as we kick off the new year. To read this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
