The Triple Play Report — 11/20/25
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 23 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Lemonade (LMND) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play before the opening bell on 11/5. In reaction to the strong earnings results, LMND shares surged 34.2% that day. After that move, the stock hit its highest level since the summer of 2021. The stock has had a great year thus far, up 93.4% YTD.
Here’s how AI describes the company: Lemonade (LMND) is a fully digital, AI-driven insurance company that sells renters, homeowners, pet, and car policies directly through its app and website rather than through agents or legacy systems. The company’s entire model is built around automation: AI guides the majority of its marketing spend, prices policies in real time, detects risk patterns, and handles most customer support and claims without human intervention. This approach allows Lemonade to operate with a much smaller workforce than traditional insurers while providing instant quotes and often instant claim payments. Because its technology platform collects detailed customer and behavioral data, Lemonade continually updates pricing, underwriting, and fraud models, and it uses reinsurance partners to manage volatility as it grows. The long-term strategy is to use AI and automation to offer lower prices, expand into more insurance categories, and eventually compete at scale with the largest consumer insurers in the market.
Lemonade delivered one of its strongest quarters to date, with a total book of insurance that reached $1.16 billion, up 30% from last year, and revenue jumped 42% to $195 million. That faster revenue growth came partly from keeping a larger share of premiums in-house instead of passing them to reinsurance partners, which means Lemonade now earns more money on each customer it already serves. Gross profit doubled to $80 million thanks to fewer claims relative to premiums and continued efficiency gains from automation. The company added more than 176,000 customers, and car insurance remained a major growth engine, rising about 40% with over half of new car policies coming from existing Lemonade users who cost little to acquire and tend to be more profitable. Europe performed especially well, growing about 170% as Lemonade expanded renters and home insurance and adjusted prices more quickly than it could in the US. The company also highlighted meaningful cost improvements from AI, including a drop in claims-handling expense to 7%, even though overall claim volume has increased.
Diving more in-depth into car insurance, Lemonade discussed a new direct integration with Tesla that lets the insurer pull driving data straight from Tesla vehicles, with customer permission, rather than relying on a phone app or plug-in device. This gives Lemonade far more detailed information about how the car is actually being driven, including things like seatbelt use and precise trip patterns, which helps the company price car insurance more accurately and settle claims faster. Management said this level of “car-native” data becomes increasingly important as cars take over more driving functions on their own, because insurers need to distinguish between miles driven by humans and miles handled by the vehicle’s autopilot or full self-driving systems. While Lemonade did not share updates on its goal of offering very low-cost coverage for autonomous miles, the company said this integration is a crucial building block for that future, allowing it to learn directly from Tesla’s systems and design pricing that reflects how quickly autonomy is developing.
Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, Lemonade (LMND) has found success on earnings since it’s 2020 IPO. The company has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 89% and 100% of the time, respectively, with a running twelve straight quarters of top and bottom-line beats. Despite that consistency, the most recent report was LMND’s first triple play since a back-to-back-to-back string of them back in 2023. The moves for the stock in reaction to earnings have been somewhat of a mixed bag when looking back. After struggling in the first year after becoming a publicly traded company, the stock has seen some very positive, and very negative moves following earnings releases. The company’s last two reports, though, have been overwhelmingly positive in terms of how the stock has rallied.
You can read more about LMND and the 22 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Chart of the Day: Beaten Down Best of Breed
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/20/25 – Jensen Saves the Day
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Great ideas come from everywhere if you just listen and look for them. You never know who’s going to have a great idea.” – Sam Walton
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Strong results from Nvidia (NVDA) have pushed global markets higher. The stock is trading up over 5% in the pre-market, and as a result, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are both trading more than 1% higher. Even Russell 2000 futures, which have no exposure to NVDA, are up over 1%. Heck, the Dow is even trading higher!
International markets were also higher overnight in Asia and this morning, with gains of mostly 1% or more. Treasury yields are basically unchanged, crude oil is back to $60 per barrel, gold is flat, and crypto assets are up at least 3%.
We’re finally getting some economic data this morning, and the main report was the September Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed 119K jobs created versus forecasts for an increase of 50K. Despite the larger-than-expected increase, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.4% versus estimates of 4.3%. More timely data on jobless claims came in at a relatively benign 220K.
In his last press conference following the Federal Reserve’s October meeting on 10/29, Fed Chair Powell made comments regarding the consumer, noting that “Data available prior to the shutdown show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected, primarily reflecting stronger consumer spending.” He then went on to simply state, “Consumers are still spending.”
Based on data that the Federal Reserve has, consumer activity still looks strong, but the stock market seems to be sending a different message. The chart below shows YTD sector performance, and while the S&P 500 is still up close to 13% on the year, the Consumer Discretionary sector is the worst performer, and Consumer Staples is tied for the second worst. Both sectors are also two of just three sectors down on the year.
While neither consumer sector was a market leader at any point this year, both sectors have seen significant underperformance since the start of October, when the government shutdown started. While only four sectors are higher, Consumer Staples is down three times more than the S&P 500, and Consumer Discretionary is the worst-performing sector with a decline of 5.2%.
The Closer – NVDA, Morning Sell Offs, COST Low – 11/19/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a dive into the much anticipated earnings report from NIVIDIA (NVDA) (page 1) followed by an updated look at our Picks and Shovels basket (page 2). After that, we check in on how the S&P 500’s intraday pattern has shaped up (page 3) before closing out with a look at Costco (COST) which hit a rare 52-week low today (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke Baskets Update – November 2025
Chart of the Day – Mega-Cap Fade
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/19/25 – Waiting
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“What we anticipate seldom occurs, what we least expected generally happens.” – Benjamin Disraeli
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After rallying off the morning lows yesterday, the major averages rallied back near the unchanged line but then drifted lower in the final hour of trading. This morning, equity futures are fractionally higher, while the 10-year yield is unchanged. Crude oil is sharply lower with a decline of 2.7% down to $59 per barrel on reports that the US and Russia may be near an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Lower oil prices should be a welcome signal for anyone worried about inflation.
In Asia overnight, it was a mixed session with no major index up or down 1%, so maybe we’re starting to see some stabilization following a couple of days of weakness. It was a similar picture in Europe, as the STOXX 600 is up 0.1% and no major country benchmark is up or down 0.5%. Eurozone CPI increased 0.2% m/m in October, which was slightly higher than the 0.1% forecast, but core CPI was right in line with expectations, rising 0.3%.
Tom Petty said, “waiting is the hardest part,” and the market and investors can’t wait for Nvidia (NVDA) earnings after the close in hopes that it will help to get the market rally back on track. While results are widely expected to be good, if not great, the stock’s reaction will say a lot about the market’s posture heading into year-end.
The chart below from yesterday’s Chart of the Day shows the performance of Nasdaq since the launch of ChatGPT, and each red dot indicates days when Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings. The label between each pair of dots shows how the S&P 500 performed in that span. What’s amazing about the last three years is that in every period between NVDA earnings reports, the Nasdaq has traded higher. That kind of consistency is extremely uncommon and won’t last forever.
Below we show the same chart but have swapped out the Nasdaq for NVDA. While NVDA’s run has been impressive, it hasn’t traded higher between each of its earnings reports over the last three years. It fell 10% from last November to March of this year, and through yesterday’s close, it’s once again on pace for a decline, although a much more modest one than three quarters ago. If there’s one takeaway from the chart, the smooth, seemingly uninterrupted pace of gains since the launch of ChatGPT has ended.
The Closer – Jobs, CLO Quality, Credit – 11/18/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look into how jobs data is shaping up (page 1) followed by a look into collateralized loan obligations (page 2), auto ABS, and office CMBS (page 3). Next up, we dive into credit card delinquencies (page 4) and New York Fed consumer credit data (pages 5 and 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day – Nasdaq 5% Declines
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/18/25 – Vibe Shift
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Bitcoin is like anything else: it’s worth what people are willing to pay for it.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
In the world of spreadsheets, any financial model can tell you with precision what a stock or asset should be worth, but in the real world, just as the S&P 500 rarely has an ‘average’ annual return, stocks and other assets rarely trade at the price where they should trade. It doesn’t take long in the market to learn that sentiment is often just as important as fundamentals, and the last few weeks show that sentiment about what things are worth in many areas of the financial market has been shifting.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down about 0.5% with the Dow slightly weaker as a 3.4% decline in Home Depot (HD) following earnings drags on that index. The risk-off sentiment has treasury yields moving modestly lower, with the 10-year yield down to 4.10%. Crude oil is little changed but below $60 per barrel, gold is down over 1%, and Bitcoin is modestly lower after briefly breaking below $90,000 overnight (more on that below).
Asian stocks traded sharply lower in the aftermath of selling in the US yesterday. Japan and South Korea both fell over 3%, while Hong Kong was down closer to 2%, and China got off ‘easy’ with a fall of just 0.8%. The declines in Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI now have those indices down over 6% from their respective highs, but Japan is still up over 22% YTD and South Korea is up over 60%, so they’re still handily outperforming the S&P 500.
Europe is also taking a defensive tone this morning as major indices in the region are all down between 1% and 2%. There’s been no real catalyst behind the move besides the overall risk-off tone across global markets.
What people are willing to pay for Bitcoin today is a lot lower now than it was six weeks ago. After hitting record highs in early October, Bitcoin prices have been in free-fall, dropping more than 27% from their highs and to their lowest level since the tariff-tantrum in April. From a technical perspective, the 50-DMA has now crossed down through the 200-DMA, indicating a shift in the trend for crypto.
More notable about the recent weakness is that prices are now on pace for just the third down year since 2015. It’s been a painful six weeks, but if there’s any consolation, “HODLers” can take some comfort that this year’s decline is nowhere nearly as steep as the 64.3% decline in 2022 and the 73.8% decline in 2018.
With a decline of around 27% from its recent high, Bitcoin’s decline has been contained, at least relatively speaking. The chart below shows Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns from record highs, and the current decline has been tame compared to the historical norms. Since 2017, on any given day, Bitcoin’s median decline from an all-time high has been 40%.
What’s notable about the recent decline is that, over the weekend, Bitcoin ended a streak of 219 days without trading in a 25% drawdown. That was the longest streak since at least 2015.
While Bitcoin’s just-ended streak without a 25% decline was historic, one could argue it’s even more overdue for a 30% decline. Through yesterday, Bitcoin has gone nearly 22 months without falling more than 30% from an all-time high, but it is getting close…
