Chart of the Day: S&P 500 Dips From a High
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/26/25 – Separate Ways
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“Greatness comes from character, and character is not formed out of smart people, it’s formed out of people who suffered.” – Jensen Huang
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After four days in a row of losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, including three days in a row of 1%+ losses for the Nasdaq, bulls are getting a chance to catch their breath this morning as futures are higher across the board. The breather comes just in time as markets gear up for Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report after the close. How the market reacts to that report could give us a good idea of the market tone as we head into spring. Besides NVDA after the close, New Home Sales is the only economic report on today’s economic calendar, and we’ll also hear from Richmond Fed President Barkin at 8:30 and Atlanta Fed President Bostic at noon.
Everything has been turned upside down in the markets over the last week. While equities and bitcoin have pulled back sharply, fixed-income ETFs – especially treasuries – have surged. As shown in the snapshots from our Trend Analyzer, the US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and every Treasury ETF with a maturity longer than a year has moved into extreme overbought territory (more than two standard deviations above their 50-day moving averages (DMA). On the equity side, the S&P 500 hasn’t quite reached oversold territory, but all the other major index ETFs along with Bitcoin have now moved at least into oversold territory. It seems like a while since we last saw a situation where fixed-income securities were moving to the right side of their ranges while equities were moving to the left.
The iShares 20+ year US Treasury ETF (TLT) had a notable move yesterday as it broke its downtrend that has been in place since the peak (trough in long-term yields) right as the Fed started cutting rates in September. It finished yesterday right below its 200-DMA, which could act as resistance going forward, but you have to start somewhere!
Get Invested: Time Heals
Our “Get Invested” series is a simple yet powerful resource designed to help anyone understand why investing in stocks for the long term is one of the best financial decisions they can make. The slide below from our Get Invested piece is titled “Time Heals.”
The stock market can be very forgiving if you give it time. The four worst times to buy equities over the last forty years were in September 1987 (before the 1987 crash), March 2000 (before the dot-com peak), October 2007 (before the Financial Crisis peak), and February 2020 (before the COVID crash). Since each of those four ill-fated buy points, US stocks have still returned at least 7.7% on an annualized basis and have outperformed bonds over all four spans.
If you have any questions about our Get Invested resource, please email us or give us a call at 914-315-1248. You can view the full piece by becoming a Bespoke client.
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The Closer – Drawdowns, Staples vs. Cyclicals, Confidence – 2/25/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we cover a large range of topics including the Nasdaq’s rapid pullback (page 1) and its historic parallels (page 2). We also check in on the relative performance of Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples stocks (pages 2 and 3) in addition to the confirmations from other assets (page 4). Switching over to economic data, we review growth outlook concerns on account of the latest consumer confidence data (page 5). We then dip into the cratering of crypto prices (page 6) and Case-Shiller home prices (page 7). We finish with a review of the 5-year note auction (page 8).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Zoom (ZM)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Zoom’s (ZM) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Zoom (ZM) is best known for its video meeting platform and has expanded into an AI-first work ecosystem, integrating AI-powered automation, Zoom Phone, Team Chat, Contact Center, and Workvivo. The company serves enterprises, SMBs, and individual users, offering tools that enhance remote and hybrid work. ZM’s AI push is gaining ground, with AI Companion usage jumping 68% QoQ. The company is set to monetize AI in April with a $12 per-seat Custom AI Companion, in hopes to drive enterprise adoption. Enterprise revenue grew 6% YoY, now making up 60% of total revenue, with $100K+ customers increasing 7%. A Fortune 100 tech firm signed Zoom’s largest-ever Contact Center deal (15,000+ agents), showcasing its growing enterprise appeal. Meanwhile, Amazon selected Zoom over Chime, strengthening an already deep AWS partnership. Workvivo – a Slack-like internal employee interaction platform – also saw explosive 89% YoY growth, fueled by the Meta Workplace migration. AI-powered Contact Center and Workvivo will be key drivers heading into FY ’26. Despite topping estimates, shares fell 8.5% on a weak revenue forecast…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Home Depot (HD)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Home Depot’s (HD) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Home Depot (HD) is the world’s largest home improvement retailer, supplying everything from building materials to appliances, tools, and décor for both DIY consumers and professional contractors. With over 2,300 stores across North America, it serves homeowners, remodelers, and large-scale builders. The company provides insight into housing trends, renovation cycles, and consumer spending, making it a key indicator of broader economic health. HD posted $39.7 billion in Q4 revenue, up 14% YoY, aided by a 53rd week and hurricane-related sales. Comparable sales rose 0.8%, the first positive comp in two years, with 10 of 16 departments posting gains. Pro sales outpaced DIY, and the company’s $1 billion investment in Pro services across 17 markets is paying off. The SRS Distribution (leader in roofing, landscaping, and building materials) acquisition contributed $6.4 billion in sales, boosting HD’s position in roofing and building materials. E-commerce grew 9%, driven by improved AI tools and faster delivery speeds than ever before. While higher interest rates continue to dampen large remodeling projects, management sees long-term opportunity in aging homes and homeowner equity, expecting 2.8% total sales growth in 2025. After the better-than-expected results, HD shares were up about 3.5% by noon on 2/25…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Hims and Hers Health’s (HIMS) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform specializing in personalized, subscription-based healthcare services. The company provides treatments across men’s and women’s health, dermatology, mental health, and metabolic health, with a growing focus on weight-loss solutions like GLP-1 medications. Through AI-powered diagnostics, at-home lab testing, and vertically integrated fulfillment centers, HIMS is streamlining healthcare accessibility with transparent pricing and high-touch digital experiences. Its rapid expansion into precision medicine, compounded pharmaceuticals, and preventative health makes it a disruptive force in the industry. The company reported Q4 revenue of $481M (+95% YoY) and full-year revenue of $1.5B (+69% YoY), fueled by subscriber growth (+45% YoY to 2.2M) and GLP-1 expansion ($225M in revenue). The Super Bowl ad boosted brand visibility, and the company continues pushing back against Big Pharma’s resistance to compounded medications. The stock was down more than 20% on 2/25 primarily due to the company’s announcement that it will cease selling compounded versions of semaglutide, the active ingredient in popular weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. The FDA recently removed semaglutide from its shortage list, which had previously allowed HIMS to offer these compounded alternatives. Management expects most competitors to cease offering commercially available doses in the coming months…
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Chart of the Day: Can Nvidia Save the Rally?
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/25/25 – What Has the Market Accomplished?
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“What you’re thinking is what you’re becoming.” – Muhammad Ali
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Thankfully for US financial markets, they don’t work for the government. Elon Musk told all government employees that they must document five things they’ve accomplished over the last week or resign, so we thought it would be good to see what the markets have accomplished over the last week. Tuesday saw the S&P 500 close at a new all-time high which was followed by another new high on Wednesday. That’s two quick accomplishments. Now, let’s see what else the market has done.
Equities have taken a series of body blows in the three trading days since Wednesday’s high, and like a heavyweight fighter hoping to hang on to the end of the 12th round, the S&P 500 looked likely to make it to the end of the day yesterday and hold above its 50-day moving average (DMA). With less than ten minutes to go in the session, though, sellers unleashed a burst of blows knocking the market down to the mat and finishing the session right near its lows of the day. Holding the 50-DMA for the S&P 500? Not accomplished.
For the Nasdaq 100, a similar song. Unlike the S&P 500, which traded higher for much of the session, the Nasdaq opened positive but almost immediately moved into negative territory and stayed in a standing eight count for much of the session. The late-day decline only pushed it further below its 50-DMA by the time the closing bell rang. Holding the 50-DMA for the Nasdaq 100? Not accomplished.
The 50-DMA has never really been in question for small caps as the Russell 2000 closed below that level in almost every session for the last two months! It’s made attempt after unsuccessful attempt to break above its 50-DMA, but after Friday’s plunge, yesterday it was the 200-DMA that gave way. Back in August and January, the 200-DMA acted as support and the launchpad for a bounce, but this time around, the Russell had no such luck. Holding the 200-DMA for the Russell 2000? Not accomplished.
While not a major index, semiconductors are an import sector for the market, and yesterday the Van Eck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) one-upped the major averages by breaking below both its 50 and 200-DMA. The ETF has been essentially rangebound for the last five months and remains that way even after breaking below both moving averages yesterday. Even if it does set the bar lower heading into the report, this type of weakness heading into Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report Wednesday isn’t particularly encouraging, Holding the 50 and 200-DMA for semiconductors? Not accomplished.
Hey Elon, can the market get an extension on that email?
Get Invested: Odds That Can Beat “The House”
Our “Get Invested” series is a simple yet powerful resource designed to help anyone understand why investing in stocks for the long term is one of the best financial decisions they can make. The slide below from our Get Invested piece is titled “Odds That Can Beat The House.”
Casinos make money making sure bettors eventually lose more often than they win. The stock market is the opposite. The longer you play, the better your odds. Historically, the odds of the S&P 500 being up over all one-month periods has been 63%. Over a year, the odds of a gain jump to 75%, and they jump to 94% over six years. Since 1928, all 16-year time frames have seen positive returns.
If you have any questions about our Get Invested resource, please email us or give us a call at 914-315-1248. You can view the full piece by becoming a Bespoke client.
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