Chart of the Day – Record Six-Month Decline for Natural Gas
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/22/23 – Miracles Anyone?
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“Do you believe in miracles? YES!” – Al Michaels
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
43 years ago today, the US men’s national hockey team shocked the world by defeating the dominant Soviet team in what everyone now knows as the “Miracle on Ice”. Today, faced with stubborn inflation, high-interest rates, lofty valuations, and numerous other concerns, a miracle isn’t the only way out of the current predicament for bulls, but after a sell-off like yesterday’s, it may seem that way. Futures are actually modestly positive in early trade, but hardly in a convincing way. The economic calendar is quiet this morning, but we’ll get the release of the Fed minutes from the previous meeting at 2 PM Eastern.
Yesterday’s plunge in stocks capped off what has been a pretty lousy five days for stocks as the early-year glow in the equity market has lost some of its shine. Every sector in the S&P 500 has traded down over the last five trading days. The least damage has been done in the Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors which are both down less than 2%. Leading the way to the downside, more than half of sectors are down over 3% with Energy leading the way falling over 6.5%. Energy is also one of four sectors down YTD and is the third worst-performing sector YTD.
Sometimes, when you’re watching a game you look at the scoreboard and think, how are we not down even more? The Energy sector has that feeling now. As we noted yesterday, crude oil isn’t far from 52-week lows, and to call the drop in natural gas a free-fall may be an understatement. Earlier this morning, front-month futures briefly dropped below $2 per million BTUs which is a level it hasn’t traded to very often over the last 20+ years. Six months ago, it was close to $10! If someone showed you the charts of oil and natural gas and gave you no other information regarding the state of the economy, the last thing on your mind would be inflation.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
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Q4 2022 Earnings Season Conference Call Recaps
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season. We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management. These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results. We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q3 2022 and Q4 2022 earnings reporting periods.
Q4 2022 Recaps:
Walmart: Q4 2022
Shopify: Q4 2022
Palantir: Q4 2022
MGM Resorts: Q4 2022
Tyson: Q1 2023
Amazon.com: Q4 2022
Meta Platforms: Q4 2022
Apple: Q1 2023
Alphabet: Q4 2022
Boats and ATVs: Brunswick (BC), MarineMax (HZO), and Polaris (PII)
Hershey Q4 2022
Old Dominion Q4 2022
PulteGroup Q4 2022
Whirlpool Q4 2022
Mastercard Q4 2022
Tesla Q4 2022
Microsoft Q2 2023
Johnson & Johnson Q4 2022
Netflix Q4 2022
Bank of America Q4 2022
Taiwan Semiconductor Q4 2022
Constellation Brands Q3 2023
Cintas Q2 2023
FedEx Q2 2023
Adobe Q4 2022
Lennar Q4 2022
Oracle Q2 2023
Costco Q1 2023
Lululemon Q3 2022
Q3 2022 Recaps:
NVIDIA Q3 2023
Walmart Q3 2023
Target Q3 2022
Disney Q4 2022
Zoetis Q3 2022
Generac Q3 2022
Uber Q3 2022
XPO Logistics Q3 2022
Apple Q4 2022
Amazon Q3 2022
Ford Q3 2022
Alphabet Q3 2022
Microsoft Q1 2023
Tesla Q3 2022
Netflix Q3 2022
Johnson & Johnson Q3 2022
UnitedHealth Q3 2022
JP Morgan Q3 2022
PepsiCo Q3 2022
Constellation Brands Q2 2023
Nike Q1 2023
Costco Q4 2022
Lennar Q3 2022
Adobe Q3 2022
Oracle — Q1 2023
DocuSign — Q2 2023
Lululemon — Q2 2022
Recaps published during Q3 2022 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription
Chart of the Day: Three Years On
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/21/23 – Weak Start to a Strong Week
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“In business, as in politics, it is never easy to go against the beliefs and attitudes held by the majority.” – J. Paul Getty
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
Markets have been bending from the spike higher in interest rates, but they have yet to break yet. This morning, they’re getting another test as retail earnings from Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) has put a drag on futures. Dow futures are down over 300 to kick off the week, the Nasdaq is down about 1%, and the S&P 500 is down about 0.85%.
Oil prices are modestly higher this morning as they continue to churn around in the high 70s which is a range is has been stuck around for more than two months. As shown in the chart below, the low $70s has been a price floor since early December while the low 80s has been a ceiling. As the sideways range has extended at levels much lower than where they were in all of 2022, the 50 and 200-day moving averages continue to drift lower, and this morning, WTI is back below both of those levels.
The sideways range of the last 50 trading days has now shrunk below 18%, which as shown in the chart below, is the narrowest trading range since May 2021. Not necessarily extreme by historical ranges, but given the war with Russia and its impact on the oil market, it’s been a bit of a snoozer in energy markets.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
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Bespoke Brunch Reads: 2/19/23
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
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Inflation
The world’s biggest food company says prices will rise further this year by Hanna Ziady (CNN)
Nestle guided further price increases on staple items that are staple parts of grocery shops all over the world, citing a process of “repairing our gross margin”. [Link]
There’s a new inflation warning for consumers coming from the supply chain by Lori Ann LaRocca (CNBC)
A glut of goods brought in to the US over the past year are stuffing warehouses, sending the cost to rent or buy temporary extra space soaring; logistics industries remain key inflationary drivers in the US. [Link]
Big Tech
The maze is in the mouse by Praveen Seshadri (Medium)
A founder of a company acquired by Google just before the pandemic hit describes the difficulties Google has operating at scale, while also offering his own prescriptions for how to make it out of the mess. [Link]
Yes, Elon Musk created a special system for showing you all his tweets first by Zoë Schiffer and Casey Newton (Platformer)
Frustrated that the President of the United States (yes, the President of the United States) got more engagement on a throw-away tweet about the Super Bowl, the Twitter CEO demanded his engineers boost his tweets to users and drive up engagement. [Link]
Bing AI Can’t Be Trusted by Dmitri Brereton (DKB Blog)
A series of examples showing how the not-ready-for-primetime AI chatbot rolled out by Microsoft this week, leading to an embarrassing failure. [Link]
Amazon Takes a 50% Cut of Seller’s Revenue by Jouzas Kaziukenas (Marketplace Pulse)
Transaction fees, fulfillment fees, and advertising and promotions can mean that third party Amazon sellers are surrendering more than 50% of revenue to the company amidst already-stiff competition and low margins. [Link]
Ballooning
Hobby Club’s Missing Balloon Feared Shot Down By USAF by Steve Trimble (Aviation Week)
The Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade reports that the last time one of its balloons was observed was at 39k feet on February 10 near Alaska. The small hobbyist group is one likely benign source for the unidentified objects the Air Force has shot down in recent weeks. [Link]
The latest info on the aerial objects we shot down by Jeff Jackson (Substack)
Freshman Congressman Jackson offers some useful briefing information he received this week that goes part of the way to explain the litany of unidentified aerial phenomena in US skies. [Link]
Auto Industry
Tesla Workers Launch Union Campaign in New York by Josh Eidelson (Bloomberg)
A group of employees who work in data processing for Tesla notified management this week that they are seeking to unionize. The company’s Buffalo plant includes roughly 800 employees in that role. [Link; soft paywall, auto-playing video]
Automobile Ads from 100 Years Ago (The Saturday Evening Post)
More than a dozen different auto manufacturers booked full page ads for their vehicles in the Saturday Evening Post from 100 years ago. Sedans and coupes dominate the offerings. [Link]
COVID
Immunity acquired from a Covid infection is as protective as vaccination against severe illness and death, study finds by Akshay Syal (NBC)
It shouldn’t be a huge surprise that exposure to an actual virus creates more immunity than vaccines (though COVID vaccines still offer great protection too). [Link; auto-playing video]
Debt Ceiling
This Is What Happens If the US Actually Hits the Debt Ceiling by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal (Bloomberg)
Bespoke’s own George Pearkes discusses the financial market and economic implications of the debt ceiling, as well as a general framework for understanding its politics. [Link; paywall]
Transitions
Decarbonization: The long view, trends and transience, net zero (Nat Bullard)
Over 100 slides on the mechanics and dynamics of moving the world away from fossil fuels after centuries of dependence. [Link]
Turning offices into condos: New York after the pandemic by Joshua Chaffin (FT)
With booming demand to live in Manhattan and falling interest for offices inside the city, conversions of office towers into apartments is under way at scale. [Link; paywall]
Taxes
Get Paid Online? Here’s How to Tell if You Owe the IRS Taxes by Aslea Ebeling (WSJ)
Online payment platforms and gig economy sites will send millions of 1099-K forms this year as part of a growing trend of Schedule C filings. [Link; paywall]
Trauma
Teen girls ‘engulfed’ in violence and trauma, CDC finds by Donna St. George (WaPo)
A remarkable study from the CDC (link; 89 page PDF) has some downright dire data on the state of American teens who are facing horrifying rates of violence. [Link; paywall]
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Have a great weekend!
The Bespoke Report — Equity Risk Gauge — February 2023
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
In this week’s newsletter, we’ve updated our Equity Market Risk Gauge for the month of February, and we also take a look at market technicals, healthy earnings, crazy inflation stats, interest rate movements, and what’s on tap for the coming weeks.
To see our updated Equity Risk Gauge and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, join Bespoke Institutional and get half off for the first three months!
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/17/23 – Another Down Friday
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.” – Thomas Jefferson
Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.
After yesterday afternoon’s plunge, equity futures have picked up right where they left off and are indicated to open the last trading day of the week lower. Treasury yields are higher across the curve, and crude oil is plunging as the dollar rallies. Today will be a test for the buy the dippers who failed to step in yesterday. Will they show up today, or did they start their holiday weekend early.
Heading into the last trading day of the week, the market has grown increasingly concerned that the economy and inflation is too strong for the Fed’s liking. This week’s CPI and PPI reports certainly did not provide any ammo to the camp that’s expecting inflation to quickly revert to pre-COVID norms, but they also covered a month where gas prices surged 9%. As we noted in last week’s Bespoke Report, months where national average gas prices increase 9% or more have historically seen an average monthly increase of 0.5% in CPI which is exactly how much CPI increased in January. February is only half over, but gas prices this month have actually declined over 2%, which would be one of the weaker Februarys for gas prices dating back to 2004, so that has the potential to act as a tailwind next month.
Regarding the economy, Retail Sales came in significantly better than expected this week, but with three straight significantly stronger-than-expected Januarys in a row, seasonal adjustments may not be entirely accurate in the post-COVID world. Outside of the consumer, this week’s data wasn’t entirely indicative of a booming economy either. While Jobless Claims remain near historical lows, indicators like Small Business Optimism, New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing reports, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Building Permits, and Housing Starts weren’t exactly positive this week.
During the month of January, Housing Starts fell over 4% on a m/m basis and more than 20% y/y. Single-family units, which tend to have a greater economic impact than multi-family units, were even weaker falling by 27% while single-family Building Permits fell 40% y/y. When looking at the 12-month moving average of Housing Starts, what started as a gradual deterioration has turned into a more dramatic decline that looks increasingly reminiscent of prior rollovers that occurred during or leading up to recessions.
Our Morning Lineup keeps readers on top of earnings data, economic news, global headlines, and market internals. We’re biased (of course!), but we think it’s the best and most helpful pre-market report in existence!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.
Bulls Step Back
The S&P 500 hasn’t moved decisively in any direction over the past week, and as a result, sentiment saw little change. 34.1% of respondents to the weekly AAII sentiment survey reported as bullish this week, down from a high of 37.5% last week.
Bearish sentiment took from those bullish losses as the reading rose up to 28.8% from 25%. Even though that is a higher reading, it is still the only other reading below 30% since last March.
Additionally, the pickup in bearish sentiment was not enough to make bears outnumber bulls. As such, the bull-bear spread saw its first back-to-back positive readings since November 2021.
Although over a third of respondents reported as bullish, this week’s predominant sentiment level was neutral. 37.1% reported as such this week. That reading has now been above its historical average of 31.4% for seven straight weeks; the longest streak since January 2021.
Other sentiment surveys have likewise taken more optimistic tones lately despite a modest pullback in bullish sentiment this week. Factoring in the Investors Intelligence and NAAIM sentiment readings, our sentiment composite remains positive but is off from its short-term peak last week. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
