Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/10/25 – More Monday Weakness
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down.” – Peter Lynch
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The NFL season ended a month ago, but Carrie Underwood’s “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night” has remained as applicable as ever. With the S&P 500 teetering just above its 200-DMA and the market feeling vulnerable, investors now spend Sundays waiting for the inevitable opening of futures markets to see how bad the damage will be.
Once again, yesterday, the picture wasn’t good as futures have been weak all night. The S&P 500 finished last Friday just about 1% above its 200-day moving average (DMA), and this morning’s indicated weakness will put the level to the test for the fifth day in a row. There’s only so much testing a moving average can take before it gives way. Even European equities, which have been outperforming US stocks by a wide margin this year, are also feeling the pressure. What makes this morning’s weakness notable, though, is that there hasn’t been a specific catalyst.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 hasn’t been as weak as the cap-weighted index this year, but it finds itself in the same situation. It closed out last week just about 1% above its 200-DMA and is indicated to open down by a similar amount.
Normally, when doubts over the economy start to arise and markets start experiencing weakness, any comments that come from the Federal government attempt to take a soothing tone, but like a team having a tough season looking to improve their position in the next season’s draft, investors have been watching comments coming from administration and asking if they’re borrowing from the ‘tank-job’ playbook.
On CNBC last Friday, Treasury Secretary Bessent remarked, “Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure”. He then added what has already become a now famous line, “There’s going to be a detox period.” It’s not common to see a Treasury Secretary talk down and pile on to what is an already shaky economic and market picture. Even in 2008, just ahead of the Financial Crisis, Treasury Secretary Paulson would regularly make comments like “I think the economy is — long-term fundamentals are very healthy, that I believe we’re going to continue to grow”.
In a Fox News interview that aired this weekend (recorded earlier in the week), President Trump took a similar stance, saying “There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.” He added. “It won’t be much.” With regards to the stock market, the President claimed, “I’m not even looking at the market.” Come again? President Trump not looking at the stock market????
For anyone who was still using President Trump’s first four years as a playbook for the next four, you can burn it. Look on the bright side, though: maybe the economy will get some good draft picks.
Brunch Reads – 3/9/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
You Can Be Anything:
Barbie made her debut on March 9th, 1959, when Mattel introduced the doll at the American International Toy Fair in New York City. Barbie was designed to be a sophisticated fashion doll that offered young girls a glimpse into adult life, breaking away from the traditional baby dolls that dominated the market at the time. Inspired by the German Bild Lilli doll, Mattel envisioned Barbie as a toy that would let children imagine themselves in aspirational roles, from career professionals to glamorous fashion icons.
The first Barbie, sporting a black-and-white striped swimsuit and a signature ponytail, was an instant success. Retailing for just $3, Mattel sold over 300,000 units in the first year. Over the decades, Barbie evolved to reflect changing cultural trends to remain relevant. Today, Barbie is a global icon, with over one billion dolls sold and an enduring influence on fashion, entertainment, and pop culture.
Markets & Investing
You Can’t Escape Politics. Your Investing Decisions Can. (WSJ)
The launch of the Defiance MAGA Seven ETF is the latest attempt to mix politics with investing, but history suggests these types of funds rarely perform well. Whether it’s right-leaning funds like MAGA ETF or left-leaning ESG strategies, politically motivated investing often underperforms because markets price in obvious trends long before retail investors act. While it may feel satisfying to align investments with idealogical beliefs, the market doesn’t care how you vote, and prioritizing politics over discipline is usually a losing strategy. For more on this topic, check out our Get Invested series. [Link]
Continue reading our weekly Brunch Reads linkfest by logging in if you’re already a member or signing up for a trial to one of our two membership levels shown below! You can cancel at any time.
The Bespoke Report — 3/7/25
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we break down the market’s steep drop since it peaked a few weeks ago and see how internals and fundamentals are holding up. Give it a read!
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Costco (COST)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Costco’s (COST) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Costco (COST) operates a global network of membership-based warehouse clubs, offering bulk goods at competitive prices. The company generates revenue through both product sales and lucrative membership fees, with executive members accounting for nearly 74% of sales. COST reported Q2 net sales of $62.53 billion (+9.1% YoY), with US comparable sales up 8.3%. E-commerce grew 20.9%, driven by strong demand for bullion, home furnishings, and sporting goods. The company expanded gas station hours and plans 25 net new warehouses this year. Tariff uncertainty looms, and COST working to mitigate cost increases. Inflation remains low overall but is rising in fresh food, particularly meat and bakery. Membership fee income grew 7.4%, and Costco continues expanding executive membership internationally. Retail media is emerging as a new revenue driver, with 10 ad campaigns live and more planned. On mixed results, COST fell as much as 8% through midday on 3/7…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for COST by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/7/25 – Same But Different
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The most terrifying fact about the universe is not that it is hostile but that it is indifferent.” – Stanley Kubrick
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures were higher earlier but have given up those gains (what else is new) as we approach the release of the February Non-Farm Payrolls report. Overnight and this morning, we’ve seen global weakness, although they haven’t seen nearly the level of weakness this week that US equities have. Germany and Japan were notable losers with declines of about 2%, while the STOXX 600 is down less than 1%. Treasury yields are lower as the 10-year sits under 4.25%
For the week, the S&P 500 is on pace for a decline of 3.6%, while the Nasdaq is on pace for a loss of over 4%. For both indices, this week is likely to be the worst week since the week ending 9/6, and for the Nasdaq, it will be the third straight weekly decline of 2%+, which would be the longest such streak since late July/early August of last year.
Certainty has been lacking lately, but efficiency has been abundant on the part of the market in pricing that in. The chart below is from page two of the Morning Lineup and shows the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average (DMA) spread, as measured in standard deviations. The S&P 500 has gone from firmly overbought to ‘extreme’ oversold territory in only eight trading days. These kinds of swift moves have been very uncommon over time.
It’s not just the S&P 500 that has moved deep into oversold territory. The snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer shows that as of yesterday’s close, every major US Index ETF except the Dow (DJIA) was at ‘extreme’ oversold levels (2+ standard deviations below their 50-DMA).
The Closer – Nasdaq Corrects, US Most Oversold, Layoffs – 3/6/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a look at the S&P 500’s price action around the 200-DMA (page 1) followed by a dive into the Nasdaq entering correction (page 2). We then provide a decile analysis of Russell 1,000 stocks in today’s session (page 3) followed by a look at the S&P 500 being the most oversold of 22 country ETFs (page 4). Afterward, we provide some further insights from the Beige Book (page 5) and close out with a look into the latest layoff data (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
The Most Oversold Country in the World
In a post yesterday, we discussed the historic surge in German equities, which is even more historic when framed relative to US equity performance. We further discussed the topic of international stock outperformance concerning valuations in today’s Chart of the Day. In the matrix below, we show the performance of 22 country ETFs since the US election in November, year to date in 2025, and month to date in February. We also show each ETF’s distance from 52-week highs and where they currently trade relative to their 50-DMAs.
On average, developed markets have massively outperformed since the election and year to date. Whereas the former are up an average of 5.5% since November, emerging markets have averaged a nearly 5% decline. More recently, looking in the young month of March, developed markets are again collectively outperforming but by a much smaller margin. The single best performer and the only one currently trading at a 52-week high is Germany (EWG). EWG has risen an impressive 7% since the end of last week, bringing it deeply into overbought territory. However, that isn’t even the most overbought country ETF. Hong Kong (EWH) is trading over 3 standard deviations above its 50-DMA for the country’s most overbought reading since October. Meanwhile, all the way at the other end of the spectrum by pretty much each measure is the US (SPY). The S&P 500 has now erased close to all its post-election gains after falling the most of any country month-to-date. As such, it is also the single most oversold country ETF on this list.
The Triple Play Report — 3/6/25
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 32 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan
Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan
LegalZoom (LZ) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play; its first since November 2023. Reporting after the close on 2/26, the stock rallied 13.2% the following day, stacking on top of last quarter’s 13.1% move higher on 11/7 after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines and holding guidance inline. LZ is a beaten down stock since its IPO in June 2021, but it has rebounded more than 80% from August lows.
Here’s how AI describes the company: LegalZoom.com (LZ) is an American online legal technology company. The company offers a variety of legal services, including the creation of legal documents such as wills, living trusts, business formation documents, copyright registrations, and trademark applications. Additionally, LegalZoom provides attorney referrals and registered agent services. In August 2023, LegalZoom launched LZ Books, an online accounting solution tailored for solopreneurs and small business owners. LZ Books offers features such as automated income and expense categorization, unlimited custom-branded proposals and invoices, 24/7 client payment options, and insights into cash flow trends. This integration aims to simplify bookkeeping and tax preparation for entrepreneurs.
In its most recent earnings report, management made note of the company’s progressing in moving to a subscription-driven business model. LZ reported revenue of $162 million, up 2% YoY, with subscription revenue growing 2% due to strong demand for compliance-related services. Despite a 15% decline in business formations to 96,000, LZ countered by mentioning its focus on attracting higher-value customers rather than maximizing volume. The company ended the quarter with 1.8 million active subscriptions, up 14% from the prior year. Some highlights were bundling compliance and business management solutions, adjusting pricing to align with customer value, and integrating AI-powered tools like an estate planning assistant and business name generator.
Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, LegalZoom results have been a bit of mixed bag, but they’ve been trending more favorably recently. The stock has gained 13% on each of its last two earnings reaction days as it continues to trend higher.
You can read more about LZ and the 31 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Chart of the Day: US Falls Behind
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/6/25 – American Mediocrity
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.” – Michelangelo
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Beggars can’t be choosy, but is a rally that lasts just one session the best we can do these days? As good as days like yesterday feel during waves of selling, when most of those gains get washed away before the next session’s opening bell, it’s grueling. Futures for all the major indices are down over 1% this morning on no specific news other than continued uncertainty related to tariffs, trade, and almost everything else. While administration officials periodically dangle a carrot to the market, the threat of a much broader blanket of tariffs coming within a month looms larger.
Despite the uncertainty, markets will still open for trading at 9:30. Before that we’ll get several economic indicators, including Non-Farm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and most importantly jobless claims at 8:30. Last week’s initial claims report came in 21K ahead of expectations, and if there’s another upside surprise in that reading, look for the stagflation chatter to pick up in intensity. Adding to concerns over the employment picture, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas reported this morning that US employers announced 172K layoffs in February, the largest for a single month since July 2020.
It’s been a painful couple of weeks for US equities. As shown in the snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained in oversold territory even after yesterday’s bounce, and they’re both down roughly 2% over the last week. The action in US equities stands in stark contrast to international equities, which are mostly higher over the last week and at varying degrees of overbought levels. European equities, as tracked by the ETF VGK, are up over 15% YTD and headed into today at ‘extreme’ overbought levels (2+ standard deviations above 50-day moving average).
