The Closer – Greenhouse Gas, Wage Growth Slowing, Products Building – 1/10/24
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with an update on House voting and Fedspeak (page 1) followed by a dive into greenhouse gas emissions (page 2). We then check in on the Atlanta Fed’s measure of wage growth (page 3). Next, we recap another weak demand 10 year note reopening (page 4) before finishing with a review of the massive build in petroleum product inventories (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Junk Bonds Crushing Long-Term Treasuries
Since the bond market peaked in late 2021 just before the Fed embarked on its attempt to tame inflation by hiking rates, it has been painful to be an investor in “risk-free” Treasuries at nearly all points on the curve. The most pain has been felt at the long-end of the Treasury curve on notes expiring in 10-20+ years.
While the 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) is down 28% on a total return basis over the last two years, you may be surprised to see that the high-yield (junk) bond ETF (HYG) is actually now up on a total return basis over the same time frame. HYG has also easily outperformed the aggregate bond market ETF (BND), which is down 7.4% over the last two years.
Going back five years instead of two, had you decided to go with the “safety” of long-term Treasuries (TLT) over the higher-risk junk bond space (HYG) back in early 2019, you’re still kicking yourself as HYG is up 18.3% over the last five years compared to a 10.6% decline for TLT over the same time frame.
As shown below, TLT was actually up nearly 50% YoY versus a decline of more than 10% for HYG at the time of the COVID Crash in early 2020 when the Fed cut rates to zero while riskier assets like stocks and junk bonds were tanking. But ever since the COVID Crash lows, long-term Treasury yields have been trending higher (meaning lower bond prices).
Because the high-yield bond ETF has a lower average duration than TLT, it has been spared the massive drop in price that long-term Treasury bonds have experienced. Couple that with high yield spreads being in a relatively good place, and HYG is currently trading close to a five-year high on a total return basis. TLT investors are jealous.
Just as longer duration worked against TLT as rates were rising, it reaps the rewards during periods when rates decline. Since the 10/19/23 peak in the 10-year yield, for example, TLT has rallied 16.3% while HYG is up less than half that (7.8%).
Chart of the Day: S&P 500’s Most Overbought Stocks and Sectors
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/10/24 – Big Rally in Small Stocks
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Time makes more converts than reason.” – Thomas Paine
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We’re looking at another flat morning for US equity futures this morning. Last we looked, S&P 500 futures were exactly unchanged, and both the S&P 500 and Dow were little changed. While there’s been little move in equities, US Treasury yields are lower as the 10-year yield has dipped back below 4%.
In terms of economic data, it’s a quiet morning. Mortgage applications surged over 9%, but the only other report on the calendar is Wholesale Inventories at 10 AM. The next major report will not be until tomorrow when the CPI for December is released. While it’s not economic data, investors will also be on the lookout for an announcement from the SEC regarding potential approval for a bitcoin ETF after yesterday’s disastrous turn of events where it was seemingly approved only but then taken back as the SEC claimed its X account was compromised.
In Asia, the Nikkei surged 2%, but most other major benchmarks in the region were lower, and in Europe, equities are just like US futures – flat as a pancake.
It’s now been 50 trading days since US markets made their Q4 lows on 10/27/23. One of the more impressive rallies has been the 20%+ gain in the small-cap Russell 2000. That move ranks as the largest 50-day rally in the index since 2020 and one of only 21 periods in the index’s history since 1979 that it rallied that much or more in a 50 trading-day period. Before the experiences during the early days of COVID, there was one occurrence in March 2019, but before that, you have to go back to 2012.
Sign up for a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading more of today’s macro analysis.
Bitcoin Getting Back Up There
While most areas of financial markets are lower one week into the new year, bitcoin is already up double-digit percentage points. Since bottoming in late 2022, bitcoin has now rallied just under 200%, and as shown in the chart below, its price is starting to get back up to levels that have only been seen for a brief period of time back in 2021. In fact, at $46,800, bitcoin has only traded higher on 6.14% of days since the start of 2017 when it first crossed above $1,000.
Chart of the Day: Consumer Electronics Show(time) for Tech
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/9/24 – Keep it Together
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When we put it all together, we’ve got to be perhaps the greatest club ever.” – Bill Sharman
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Markets are experiencing a bit of a turnaround Tuesday (in the wrong direction) this morning as a good chunk of yesterday’s gain is getting retraced this morning. Small Business Optimism from the NFIB topped forecasts reaching its joint-highest reading since September 2022, and the Trade Balance came in slightly narrower than expected. Perhaps the biggest headlines in the next 24 hours, though, will come in the crypto space where the SEC is expected to give a definitive answer regarding approval for a Bitcoin ETF.
Last week’s decline to kick off the year ended what had been simultaneous nine-week winning streaks for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and the longest such streak in decades. Given the weakness to kick off the year, a lot of investors went into the weekend thinking that maybe the rally had finally run its course, and the bears were going to be back in charge for 2024. Yesterday, though, the bulls made a stand as the S&P 500 rallied 1.4% to put it down just 0.13% on the year. Who knows what the rest of the year may bring, but one week doesn’t necessarily make a trend (even if it was the all-important first week of the year). Think back to the 1972 Lakers.
52 years ago today, the Lakers, led by Jerry West, Gail Goodrich, and Wilt Chamberlain ended a record 33-game win streak when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar dropped 39 to help lead the Milwaukee Bucks to a 120-104 win. While the end of the streak was undoubtedly a disappointment at the time, the Lakers still ended the season with a 69-13 record. They then sailed through the playoffs with just three losses in three rounds, ultimately winning the Championship over the Knicks. Even the best runs have their rough patches.
As mentioned above, after five full trading days, the S&P 500 is down just fractionally YTD with a decline of 0.13%, and the average performance of stocks in the index is a decline of 0.23%. Overall, 230 stocks in the index are up YTD, so it’s been a draw all around. While there hasn’t been much movement at the index level, on an individual stock level, there have been some extremes at each end of the spectrum with a handful of ‘stars’ already up over 5% YTD and an even larger number down over 5%.
Starting with the biggest winners, 18 stocks in the S&P 500 have already rallied 5% on the year, and the top five performers are all from the Health Care sector with Moderna (MRNA) leading the way posting a gain of 16.1% YTD. Rounding out the top five, Eli Lilly (LLY) is continuing its run from last year with an additional gain of 7.4%. Outside of the Health Care sector, some of the more notable names on the list include Verizon (VZ), which doesn’t often find itself on a top performer list, and NVIDIA (NVDA), which always seems to be near the top of a top performer list no matter what time frame you look at.
While 18 stocks are already up at least 5% YTD, 27 stocks are already down 5% on the year. The most notable of the losers is Boeing (BA) as it’s down over 12% following its 8% decline on Monday. Tech was a top-performing sector last year, but it has run into a bit of profit-taking in the first week of 2024 as one-third (9) of the stocks listed are all from that sector and more specifically, the semiconductor group.
Sign up for a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading more of today’s macro analysis.
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — January 2024
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Chart of the Day – Weak Start In China
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/8/24 – Welcome Back
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them.” – Galileo
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We may be eight days into the year already, but from a market perspective, today seems like the first day back. While there isn’t any economic news on the calendar, there’s been a ton of announcements from individual companies concerning guidance and Q4 performance. This week also marks the unofficial start of Q4 earnings season, and we’ll have the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference and the 2024 Consumer Electronics Show. It’s also a full trading week!
The biggest individual stock story of the morning is Boeing (BA) which is trading down around 7.5% after a door panel on an Alaskan Air (ALK) flight blew off mid-flight. In response to the event, the FAA has ordered the grounding of all 737 MAX 9 jets in the US.
Boeing can’t seem to catch a break this decade, but towards the end of last year, the 40%+ rally in the stock suggested that maybe the worst of the company’s problems were behind it. This morning, though, the stock is poised to gap down to just above its 50-day moving average (DMA) in what would be the worst downside gap for the stock since 6/11/2020.
As painful as the decline is for BA shareholders this morning, historically the stock has tended to bounce back following downside gaps of at least 5%. The chart below compares the stock’s median performance following 5%+ downside gaps in the stock to its average performance for all periods since 1980. Outside of the one month, the stock’s median performance and frequency of positive returns were better than the average for all periods and in many cases, significantly so. That obviously doesn’t guarantee anything going forward, but even in the post-COVID period, the stock’s performance, especially over the following three, six, and twelve months, has tended to be positive.
Sign up for a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading more of today’s macro analysis.