It is a very positive tone for European equities and US futures this morning as the S&P 500 is indicated to open up half of one percent as it continues to follow through from Friday’s close above resistance.  There’s not a lot of economic data to speak of today, but the FOMC is set to begin a two-day meeting.  With virtually zero chance of a hike or even a cut in rates at this meeting or in the next few, they may have trouble finding things to talk about for the next two days!

Please click the link below to read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup.

Bespoke Morning Lineup – 3/19/19

With the S&P 500 down just over 3% from its all-time high and tomorrow marking the six-month anniversary since the last time the index closed at an all-time high, the current period is just the fifth time since the March 2009 low that the index has gone six months or more without closing at post-financial crisis high.  It also marks just the sixth time that the index has gone more than 100 trading days without hitting a new high.

In the chart below, we highlight the S&P 500’s path since the March 2009 lows and show each of the 100+ trading day droughts without a new high in red.  The current period, which will extend to 122 trading days today, has been unique as it came just 19 trading days after a 145 trading day drought that spanned late January to August of 2018.  When the S&P 500 finally broke out to new highs last August, bulls were probably not expecting such a ‘lame’ breakout as the difference between the September high and the high from earlier in January was barely more than 2%.  The only period that was similar was from 2011 through 2012 where a 206 trading day streak without a new high and a 108-day streak were separated by just 22 trading days and a rally of less than 4%.

Those two examples just mentioned are where the S&P 500 saw the smallest rallies following a drought of 100+ trading days without a new high.  The other three periods, however, were a lot more palatable for bulls as the S&P 500 rallied an additional 12% through May 2011 after breaking the 135-day drought in November 2010, an additional 50% through May 2015 after breaking the 108-day drought in September 2012, and an additional 33% through January 2018 after breaking the 285 trading day drought in July 2016.

Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium to see today’s full Morning Lineup report. You’ll receive it in your inbox each morning an hour before the open to get your trading day started.


Print Friendly, PDF & Email