US equity futures are attempting to rally again this morning after yesterday’s last hour decline of nearly 1% erased all the positive goodwill from the rebound earlier in the day. The pace of earnings reports is finally starting to pick up, and based on this morning’s results, at least, the news has been good. Of the 12 companies that have reported, 11 have exceeded EPS forecasts and just three missed revenue estimates. The big question now is, can stocks finally rally on what at the surface look like good results?
Looking ahead at market seasonal trends, the gauges below are from our Stock Seasonality tool and show the S&P 500’s median historical return over the upcoming week, month, and quarter during the last ten years. In that span, the upcoming week and month have seen median gains of 0.48% and 1.18%, respectively. Relative to all other one week and one month periods over the last ten years, these returns are pretty much in line with the norm. Looking out over the next three months, though, it doesn’t get much better than the S&P 500’s median gain of 6.11% which ranks right up there with the best three month periods of the calendar over the last decade.
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