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“Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” – Macbeth
In the markets and life in general, the most hyped events almost always fail to live up to expectations, and while last night’s debate was eagerly anticipated, it was a big disappointment that devolved into shouting and name-calling devoid of any substance. The seven words from Macbeth summed it up best.
In other news this morning, ADP Employment topped expectations by 100K (749K vs 649K), and the Chicago PMI was so strong that they released it early (62.4 vs 52.0 expected). The second revision to Q2 GDP also came in slightly less disastrous than expected (-31.4% vs -31.7%).
The initial reaction to last night’s debates in the betting markets was clearly in Biden’s favor. Over at electionbettingodds.com, the odds for Biden to win the November election jumped back nearly to new highs after rising 4.9 percentage points in the last day to just under 60%. Trump’s odds, conversely, dropped more than four points to below 40%.