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Who controls the memes controls the universe.” – Elon Musk
Heading into a weekend where we celebrate the contribution of American workers to the economy, there are going to be fewer than expected workers to celebrate after the release of the August employment report. While expectations were for an increase of more than 700K jobs during the month, the actual increase was a paltry 235K. The one bright spot to the report was average hourly earnings which rose more than expected (0.6% vs 0.3%). While the rate of increase in jobs was a disappointment, for investors fearing the Fed taper, ‘substantial further progress’ in the labor market may take longer to achieve than previously thought.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
As just about everybody knows at this point, September is a seasonally weak time of year for the equity market, and the gauges from our Stock Seasonality tool below illustrate this trend. Over the last ten years, the week following the close on 9/3 has seen a median decline of 0.43% which ranks in the 15th percentile relative to all other periods. For the upcoming month, the S&P 500’s median gain is just 0.08% which doesn’t rank much better (22nd percentile).
As the old cliche goes, though, short term pain is often followed by longer-term gains, and in the three months that follow the close on 9/3, the S&P 500’s median performance over the following three months has been a gain of 6.09% which ranks in the 97th percentile relative to all other three month periods. Like April showers bringing May flowers, September pain has often been followed by Q4 gains.
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