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“The uncreative mind can spot wrong answers, but it takes a very creative mind to spot wrong questions.“ – Antony Jay
Equities were looking higher to start the week, but that’s not the case anymore as Dow futures are now flat, the S&P 500 is indicated lower by about 0.30% while the Nasdaq is looking at a decline of nearly 1%. Small caps, meanwhile, are indicated slightly higher for now.
Washington will be a key area of focus this week as lawmakers attempt to hammer out an infrastructure bill and an agreement to keep the government funded and raise the debt ceiling. Whatever the outcome of all these negotiations, one thing we can count on is that it will not be smooth.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
September and October are notoriously volatile times of the year, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the equity market’s historical short-term performance to close out September and start October has been weak. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median performance in the week following the close on 9/27 has been a decline of 0.20% which ranks in the 24th percentile relative to all other one-week periods throughout the year. While short-term performance has been on the weak side, returns one and three months out have been considerably better. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median one-month performance from the close on 9/27 has been a gain of 2.41% which ranks in the 84th percentile. Performance over the following three months has been even more impressive as the S&P 500 has seen a median gain of 6.82% ranking in the 99th percentile. You can’t get much better than that.
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