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“No one asked me to be an actor, so no one owed me. There was no entitlement.” – James Earl Jones
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view yesterday’s interview from CNBC Overtime, click on the image below.
Equity futures are moving back and forth on either side of unchanged this morning, with little direction in either direction. The only economic report of the day was small business sentiment from the NFIB, which came in just over two points below expectations (91.2 vs. 93.6).
You may recall that last month’s report came in a bit more than two points above expectations, so this morning’s report essentially erased that move. While the report was weaker than expected, it shouldn’t have been a surprise. As we noted last month, the NFIB’s report tends to skew Republicans, and the prior survey came just after former President Trump had a big lead in the polls following the GOP convention. The latest survey was conducted as Harris shifted into the lead, hence the weaker sentiment. Now that the polls have shifted back to neutral or in favor of Republicans, it wouldn’t surprise us to see a bounce again next month.
Ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report, we realize that the market may have moved on from inflation, but gas prices play a big role in overall inflation levels and especially consumers’ perception of it. On a YTD basis, the national average price of a gallon of gas has increased 4.9%, which wanks as the fourth smallest YTD increase since 2005, and ten percentage points less than the median change during that span.
On a year/year basis, prices have declined 7.6% relative to where they were last year and have mostly been negative for the last year or more.
Lastly, the national average currently stands at $3.26 per gallon. That’s 36 cents more than the historical average since 2005, but when you take inflation into account, prices are lower now than their historical average.
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