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“We can draw lessons from the past, but we cannot live in it.” – Lyndon B Johnson

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Depending on the index, equity futures are trading within 0.1% above or below unchanged this morning as treasury yields move slightly higher. The only economic reports on the calendar this morning are FHFA House Prices and Consumer Confidence. Besides these two reports, investors continue to look ahead to Nvidia (NVDA) earnings after the bell on Wednesday. It’s hard to remember a time when there was so much anticipation regarding one company’s earnings report, but besides Apple (AAPL) over the years, it’s also hard to remember a stock in recent history that has garnered as much of an iconic status.

For anyone frustrated with the slower momentum in the US economy, consider yourself lucky we’re not Germany. Q2 GDP in Europe’s largest economy and the third largest in the world contracted by 0.1%, which was in line with expectations. The latest quarterly print represents the latest example of an economy stuck in the mud and not going anywhere. Look at the chart below of quarterly GDP in Germany since the start of 2014. For nine quarters, quarterly GDP prints have alternated between gains and losses.

The chart below shows historical streaks where German GDP alternated between growth and contraction, and at nine quarters in a row now, the current streak is unlike anything seen since East and West Germany reunified in the early 1990s. It’s over twice as long as the next longest streak of four quarters. Not only that, but unless there are revisions to prior quarters, the streak will either extend to ten next quarter, or the economy will be in a technical recession (back-to-back quarters of negative GDP)!

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