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“There is no risk-free path for monetary policy.” – Jerome Powell
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Futures have been digging out of their hole all morning, but still remain in negative territory ahead of Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole at 10 AM. Crude oil is modestly higher this morning while US Treasury yields are modestly lower. Outside of the Fed, one big story crossing the wires right now is from Bloomberg which is reporting that the US and China have reached a preliminary deal regarding audits that could avoid delistings of Chinese companies from US exchanges.
It’s also a busy morning for economic data, and for the 8:30 batch, Personal Income and Spending were both weaker than expected, but PCE inflation data came in weaker than expected. At 10 AM, we’ll get the Michigan Confidence report which will be interesting to watch as it will come out just as Powell starts speaking.
Ahead of Powell’s widely anticipated speech today, the equity market is following the technical playbook to a tee. After stalling out just short of its 200-DMA last week, the pullback that followed found support right at the June highs and the brief period of consolidation that occurred right before the August rally run to the 200-DMA. While not necessarily a technical term, the saying, “if at first, you don’t succeed, try again”, seems applicable to where the market is today relative to its 200-DMA. Now, we just have to wait to see if Powell’s speech will provide some fuel for that attempt or put on the brakes. We’ll know within the next couple of hours.
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