See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“They’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum…As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.” – Donald Trump
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Talk about a bad breakup. In the wake of President Trump’s comments regarding Iran and the ratcheting up of military tensions in the region, global equities are reeling. Futures for the S&P 500 are down close to 1%, while the Nasdaq sits on losses of closer to 1.5%. As you’d expect, WTI crude oil is up over 5% to just under $75 per barrel. Even with the risk-off sentiment in the market, Treasury yields are also higher as the 10-year yield moves up 5 bps to 4.57%. Gold is also plunging more than 2% to $4,060 per ounce, going against its usual role as a safe-haven bid, and Bitcoin is down 2.5% to just above $62,000.
It was another day of red for Asia as the Nikkei fell over 2%, and the Kospi tanked another 5.4%. The index has now declined more than 20% from its high just over two weeks ago on 6/22. The only global benchmark in the region trading higher was Hong Kong, which rallied 3% on reports that the Chinese government would limit access from foreigners to the country’s top AI models.
European stocks aren’t faring much better than Asia. The STOXX 600 is down over 1.5%, led lower by Spanish stocks, which are down over 2.5% after President Trump called for an end to all US trade with the country after it refused to ramp up defense spending and denied the US access to its airspace during the US strikes on Iran.
The ‘break-up’ with Iran comes just as oil prices were starting to revert to their pre-war levels. After surging more than 68%, WTI crude oil prices closed within $2 of the pre-war levels on Monday but have since rallied more than 10%.
This morning, oil prices are up over 5%, and the Crude Oil ETF (USO) is on pace to gap up over 3%. Along with the rally in crude oil, equity prices are predictably on pace to gap down nearly 1%. As mentioned above, though, Treasuries are unexpectedly selling off. Since the launch of USO in 2006, today will only be the 14th day that USO gapped up at least 2.5%, the S&P 500 (SPY) gapped down at least 0.5%, and long-term Treasuries (TLT) gapped down.
The chart below shows each of those prior days on a chart of SPY. Stunningly, there wasn’t a single occurrence in the first ten years after USO’s launch, and then after the first occurrence in 2016, there wasn’t another for more than five years. Since the start of 2025, though, these types of mornings for the market have been increasingly common, and today’s open will be the ninth occurrence in the last four months!
Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
