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“Our predecessors overcame many troubles and much suffering, but each time got back up stronger than before.” – Shinzo Abe

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US futures have been negative most of the morning ahead of today’s jobs report, but they have been improving from earlier levels, and the Dow is even indicated to open slightly higher as we type this.  This is all subject to change, though, as the June employment report will be released shortly.  Expectations are for an increase of 268K, which would be the lowest monthly reading since the start of 2021, but the real focus will likely be on average hourly earnings which are expected to increase by 0.3%.

Outside of equities, US treasury yields are modestly lower, but the 2s10s yield curve remains inverted for the fourth straight day.  Crude oil and gold are basically flat, and copper is down nearly 2%.

In today’s Morning Lineup, we discuss moves in Asian and European markets and economic data from around the world.

With a good deal of emphasis being placed on today’s employment report, we wanted to take a quick look at how the headline payrolls report has come in relative to expectations over the last year.  In the last 12 monthly reports, the headline number has exceeded expectations seven times and missed forecasts five times.  Looking at the chart, though, the margin of the misses has been much larger than the magnitude of the beats.  In four of the five misses, the actual reading came in more than 250K below forecasts, and the overall average miss was 291K.  In the seven beats, however, the average beat was just 143K or less than half of the magnitude of the average miss. Applying the average miss to today’s report, if the June report missed expectations by the ‘average’ amount of the last year, it would be a negative reading. A lot of ifs there, but just helps to put things in perspective.

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