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“No one ever made a difference by being like everyone else.” – P.T. Barnum

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The starters are coming back on the field this morning after a short session on Monday, and the gains from the quarter’s first trading day are on pace to be more than erased at the opening bell.  Weak PMI data for many major economies released overnight and this morning has generally been weaker than expected raising concerns about the health of the global economy. The US economic calendar is quiet today with Factory Orders at 10 AM and FOMC minutes at 2 PM.

After a strong start where the STOXX 600 rallied 6.5% in the first ten trading days of the year, investors around the world hopped on the bandwagon for European stocks. Since those first ten trading days, though, stocks across the Atlantic have essentially flat-lined. In the 121 trading days since those first ten trading days of 2023, the STOXX has only managed to rally 1%, and the technical backdrop for stocks in the region has started to look shaky.

The STOXX 600 traded at new highs for the year in May, but since then has formed a short-term downtrend of lower highs and lows, and in the process, has broken the uptrend that has been in place since last fall’s low.  In late June, it made a rally attempt, but that bounce stalled out right at resistance coinciding with that former uptrend as well as the 50-day moving average.  To paraphrase PT Barnum, no one ever makes much money by investing like everyone else.

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