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“Scientists have proven that it’s impossible to long-jump 30 feet, but I don’t listen to that kind of talk.” – Carl Lewis
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a nice close to the week, futures are looking to build on those gains as we head into the final days of July and into the dog days of August. As is usually the case with Mondays, the economic and earnings calendars are light to start the week, but it will be busy, nonetheless.
In terms of economic data, we’ll get Consumer Confidence and JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP, ECI, Pending Home Sales, and a Fed decision on Wednesday, and then Thursday will kick off the month with jobless claims and manufacturing PMIs. Finally, Friday will close out the week with the July employment report.
Among the most high-profile companies reporting earnings, we’ll hear from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL), plus hundreds of others. It’s been an interesting start to the week for Treasuries where the 10-year yield is down well below 4.20% and even flirting with 4.15%
The S&P 500 finished last week just like it ended it by rallying just over 1%. It’s nice to finish the week off on a positive note, but since the S&P 500’s recent peak in mid-July, the trend has been a series of lower highs. Since breaking through support to the downside right around 5,500 last week, the S&P 500 made two attempts late in the week to get back above that psychological level but failed both times. This recent bounce won’t be worthy of gold until the S&P 500 can break back above and hold those levels, On a more positive note, the S&P 500 also briefly traded below 5400 twice, but each time, buyers were quick to step in.
For the Nasdaq, the intraday downtrend established in mid-July has been steeper in slope. While Friday’s intraday high was well below Thursday’s, a trend of intraday higher lows has been established since early last Thursday.
The Russell 2000 has been the standout performer since the middle of the month, but even it remains below its July high. Closing just above 2,260 on Friday, though, the Russell 2000 is less than 1% from its recent 52-week high of 2,278 on July 17th.
Outside of equities, Bitcoin has been strong surrounding this weekend’s Bitcoin conference in Nashville. Headlines were made when former President Trump said in a speech that he would see to it that the US government never sells any of its Bitcoin and would ease regulations to make the US the Bitcoin superpower of the world. This morning, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has rallied to just under $70K from a low of less than $54K just after July 4th. 30% in less than a month is an impressive rally, but it still hasn’t been enough to break out of the downtrend channel it has been in since reaching a record high of just under $74K in the spring.
