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What? Over? Did you say ‘over?’ Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!” – John Blutarsky
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In case you missed it yesterday, below is a link to yesterday’s segment on CNBC.
While Bluto may argue otherwise, the Dow’s streak of daily gains ended at 13 days tying it with the 13-trading day period ending in January 1987 for the longest winning streak in the last 125 years. This morning, the bulls are determined not to make yesterday’s decline the start of a new losing streak, and so far, they’ve been successful as futures on all three major averages trade in the green.
Overnight and this morning, major equity indices are seeing mixed returns. In Asia, the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite both traded up over 1% to cap off weekly gains of more than 3% while India traded marginally lower and traded down less than 1% for the week. In Europe, German GDP was the big report of the morning. While economists were expecting growth of 0.1% following Q1’s contraction of 0.3%, the actual reading showed zero growth (0.0%). The German economy may no longer be in a recession, but it isn’t growing either.
Earnings data for the week is now behind us, but there’s still a decent chunk of economic data to contend with including ECI (weaker than expected), Personal Income (weaker than expected), Personal Spending (stronger than expected), PCE Deflator (mostly inline with forecasts although Y/Y Core was less than expected at 4.1% versus 4.2% forecast), and Michigan Sentiment.
After hitting new bull market highs early in the session yesterday, stocks sold off and finished near the lows of the day. Technicians call days like yesterday ‘reversal days’, and they are considered negative market signals. As with several technical indicators, though, they sound good in theory, but they don’t always work out in practice. Since the inception of the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) back in 1993, there have now been 83 days where SPY traded to a 52-week high intraday and then reversed lower throughout the trading session to the point where its intraday low was lower than the prior day’s low and the close was below the open.
The chart below of SPY shows every one of those prior reversal days over time. While there were a few times when the market did have a reversal day near a peak, most of them occurred nowhere near market peaks.
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