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“Don’t take life too seriously. You’ll never get out alive!” – Elbert Hubbard
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After one of the most subdued reactions to a Fed decision in memory, today is not only one of, if not, the busiest days of earnings season, but there’s also a ton of economic data hitting the tape as we send this out. Given the volume of reports, you would think that there would be something to worry about in the data, but jobless claims were lower than expected, GDP was better than expected, Durable Goods were better than expected, and the inflation data (GDP Price Index and Core PCE) were all weaker than expected. Not a bad showing!
One thing they have already started to worry a little more about this week is the fact that most of them are bullish. After individual investor sentiment, as measured by AAII topped 50% for the first time in over two years last week, it headed south again this week falling down to 44.9%. That’s despite the Dow rising every single day since the last survey was taken!
We’ve talked a decent amount in the last few weeks about the extraordinarily narrow trading range that Bitcoin has traded in recently. This week, it has started to drift out of that range to the downside, and while it hasn’t been a dramatic move, the 50-day moving average is back into play. After testing that level in each of the last three trading days, Bitcoin has successfully tested that level, and today it has managed to stay above that level for now. There’s still a decent amount of time left in the day, so we’ll see if it holds, but for now, Bitcoin’s uptrend remains intact. If the 50-DMA fails to hold, though, the pace of selling could accelerate.
Bitcoin’s ‘little brother’, Ethereum, has been extremely quiet lately. Outside of a brief downdraft and recovery in June, its price has essentially done nothing. Extreme volatility is a way of life for speculators in crypto, but lately, the sector has had as much excitement as a movie on the Hallmark channel.
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