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“My dream is of a place and a time where America will once again be seen as the last best hope of earth.” – Abraham Lincoln
On a Friday before a holiday weekend, you would expect things to be quiet, and that’s exactly the way things are now ahead of the June jobs report. The release of that report will likely cause some ripples, but don’t expect much in the way of movement after the first couple of hours of trading as traders head for the exits to start the holiday weekend early. Have a Happy July 4th!
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, a discussion of the latest round of OPEC talks, economic data from around the world, the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
July 4th is typically a good time of year for the equity market, and the chart below showing the performance of the S&P 500 from the Friday before to the Friday after July 4th illustrates that point. Since 1945, the S&P 500’s median gain during the four trading day stretch has been a gain of 0.88% with positive returns 71% of the time. Last year was an especially strong July 4th week for the market as the S&P 500 surged 4.02%, ranking as the second-best July 4th week since 1945 (2010 was the best at 5.42%).
We have also highlighted years where the S&P 500 was up over 10% heading into the July 4th week in red. When equities were already up double-digits heading into July 4th, performance was even better with a median gain of 1.06% and positive returns 86% of the time (19 out of 22 times).