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“Make every detail perfect and limit the number of details to perfect.” – Jack Dorsey
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning to discuss potential market impacts from this weekend’s events. To view the segment, click on the image below.
Welcome to adulthood Twitter, now X. 18 years ago today, Jack Dorsey launched Twttr, which then became Twitter, and is now known as X. The social media platform has had a moody existence. As this weekend’s attempted assassination of former President Trump illustrated, though, when news breaks, the first place to find it is on X. With the good comes the bad, and there’s also no shortage of incorrect and misleading information on the platform, but that’s the case just about everywhere now. Who knows, maybe now that it’s an adult, the level of discourse on X will show some maturity. Oh, who are we kidding?
Futures are trading higher this morning as markets price in a higher likelihood of a Trump victory in November along with Republican control of the House and Senate. According to the website electionbettingodds.com, the GOP’s odds of winning the Presidential election have jumped from 60.6% early Saturday afternoon to 67.6% this morning. In the House, Republican odds have jumped from just over 50% to 55.5%. Finally, the Senate was already firmly likely to be controlled by the GOP, and those odds remain high at 76.7%. A lot can change between now and November, though. On February 3rd, 2008, the Patriots were 18-0 and looking to finish an undefeated season against the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII, and we all know what happened. There’s a reason you still have to play the game.
If the GOP takes full control of DC following this November’s election, it will be just the fourth occurrence in the modern era. The three prior periods were the 108th (2003 – 2004), 109th (2005 – 2006), and 115th (2017 – 2018) sessions of Congress, and below we have included charts showing the performance of the S&P 500 and the 10-year yield during each two years. It’s a small sample size, but the S&P 500 and ten-year yield were up each time. The S&P 500’s median gain was 17% while the 10-year experienced a median increase of about 20 basis points (bps).
