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“It wasn’t the money, it was just that we had them on the run and gave in. They knew it, and that’s why they wanted to come to terms.” – Al Davis
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This weekend marks the 155th running of the Belmont Stakes, which is referred to as the “Test of the Champion” given it is the longest and most grueling of the Triple Crown legs. In many ways, the current bull market, which was confirmed yesterday with the S&P 500 closing 20% (barely) above its October 12th low, has been the Belmont Stakes of rallies off a bear market low. To find a period where it took longer for the S&P 500 to rally 20%+ off a bear market low, you have to go back to the late 1950s. The road may have been long, but it’s better than making new lows!
This morning looks like a continuation of the trend all week where there has been little news in terms of earnings and the economy, and futures are modestly lower. Enjoy the calm while it lasts, though, because next week will be another busy week for economic data and even a Fed rate decision to boot.
Megacap stocks may have taken a back seat to large caps in the last several trading days, but somebody forgot to tell Tesla (TSLA). Heading into today, the stock is riding a 10-day winning streak, and with shares up 5% in the pre-market, the streak looks likely to reach Spinal Tap levels today. TSLA has been a wild stock over the years, but in its history as a public company, the stock has only had two other double-digit winning streaks. The first was ten trading days ending in April 2020 while the second came less than a year later when the stock rallied for eleven straight trading days. A gain today would move the current streak into a tie for the longest on record.
The log chart below of TSLA since its IPO shows where each of the prior 10-day winning streaks occurred. The April 2020 streak marked the beginning of what was a massive post-COVID rally where the stock rallied an additional 191% over the next six months. Following the January 2021 streak, however, the stock went on to fall 21% over the next six months.
While TSLA is currently in the midst of one of its longest-ever winning streaks, the magnitude of the move during the last ten days has been less monumental. While 28.4% over ten trading days is nothing to push your plate away over, as recently as this past February, the stock rallied more than 48% over ten trading days, and since November 2021, there have been three other ten-day periods where the stock rallied as much or more than it has over the last ten trading days.
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