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“Everything must be taken into account. If the fact will not fit the theory—let the theory go.” – Agatha Christie

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Well. it was looking like a positive day.  Futures were comfortably higher earlier but have pulled back as we approach the opening bell following the ECB’s monetary policy announcement.  The European central bank will be ending asset purchases on July 1st, and hiking rates by 25 bps in July and at least another 25 bps at the September meeting.

The only economic data on the calendar today are initial and continuing jobless claims.  Initial jobless claims came in at 229K which was more than 20K above forecasts and the highest level since January.  Continuing claims, meanwhile, were unchanged at 1.306 million. While initial claims are still at the low end of their historical range, they have also been trending steadily higher now for 12 weeks.

In today’s Morning Lineup, we discuss market and economic developments in China (pgs 4 & 5), the latest ECB rate decision (pg 5), and economic data out of Asia, Europe, and Mexico (pg 6).

With all the volatility that has emblematized 2022, the Memorial Day weekend seems to have really flipped a switch to the Summer doldrums.  Over the last eight trading days, the S&P 500 has traded in what has been a relatively tight trading range.  During this period, the S&P 500 has traded on either side of 4,125 each day, and the total spread between the intraday high and low has been 2.5% which represents the narrowest eight-day trading range of the year. Investors have been longing for a period of calm in the markets, and for now, at least they’re getting it.

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