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Treasury yields and crude oil are moderately higher this morning and that has put pressure on equities which are just modestly lower. There’s not a lot of economic data to speak of, but weekly mortgage applications fell 6.5% to their lowest level, outside of the early COVID days, since 2016. There isn’t much in the way of a catalyst for this morning’s weakness on the equity side of things, but the fact that the OECD lowered economic growth forecasts for this year and next hasn’t helped.
In today’s Morning Lineup, we discuss the OECD’s downgrade of global growth forecasts (pg 4), central bank actions in emerging markets (pg 4), market activity in Asia and Europe (pg 4), and economic data out of Asia and Europe (pg 5).
The US Dollar is up over 1% versus the yen this morning as the one-way trade in that currency pair continues. Over the last year, the dollar has rallied more than 20% versus the yen, and since the start of the year, the gain has been more than 16%. From a longer-term perspective, the dollar’s rally puts it at the highest level versus the yen since February 2002, and if it rallies another half of one percent, it will be at the highest level since 1998. This rally spells trouble for Japanese consumers, but for manufacturers in the country, the weak yen is a welcome trend.
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