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It’s a fresh start to what will be a shortened holiday week with US markets closed on Friday in observance of July 4th. Even with a shorter week, though, there’s a ton of economic data on the calendar with the usual end of the month/early month reports, including a simultaneous release of both Jobless Claims and the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday at the 8:30 Eastern.
After a poor end to the week Friday, things are a little better in the pre-market with futures firmly in the green as Boeing (BA) trades up over 5% on news that it will resume 737 Max certification flights today. That opens up the path for the place to resume commercial flights, so now all the planes will need is passengers.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, European markets and data, global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Depending on the day it falls on, the days leading up to and after the July 4th holiday have historically been a quiet time for the market as a lot of Americans either take a day or two off before or after the holiday. With most of the country still under some form of social distancing restrictions this year, the typical holiday hotspots aren’t likely to be nearly as bustling this year, so this year’s July 4th is unlikely to be anything even close to resembling normal.
With the usual caveats in place, we would note that the period leading up to July 4th and the Summer months have, in recent history, been pretty positive for the equity market. The image below is from our Seasonality Tool and it shows the S&P 500’s median one week, one month, and three-month returns from the close on 6/29 over the last ten years. With a median gain of 1.32%, the S&P 500’s one-week return over the last ten years ranks in the 93rd percentile versus all other one-week periods throughout the year. One month later, the median return moves up to 2.58% which ranks in the 87th percentile. Three months later, the median gain comes in at just under 4%, which still ranks strong in the 78th percentile versus all other rolling three-month periods throughout the year.