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“The debt is like a crazy aunt we keep down in the basement. All the neighbors know she’s there, but nobody wants to talk about her.” – Ross Perot
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3 points. After a wild but ultimately oddly quiet weekend on the geo-political front, US futures are just modestly negative to the tune of three points this morning, and crude oil is only marginally higher. Not necessarily what you would have expected to see on the Monday after a weekend where we saw what looks like an attempted coup in a country that holds one of the world’s largest nuclear stockpiles and happens to be the third-largest producer of crude oil.
Bulls are looking to regroup this morning after a negative week, and as we head into the last week of what can only be considered a strong first half for equities. The only economic report on the calendar this morning is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report, which is expected to be firmly in negative territory (-22.5) but not quite as weak as last month’s reading of -29.1. We’ll be watching the Prices Paid and Prices Received components for confirmation of the pattern we’ve seen in other regional fed reports where pricing pressures have been easing substantially.
While last week was negative for stocks, remember how strong the period was that preceded it was. As noted in Friday’s Bespoke Report, the market still hasn’t broached the prior highs from last August, so the bulls still deserve the benefit of the doubt.
The picture for international stocks doesn’t look nearly as positive. Less than two weeks ago, the MSCI All Country World Ex US ETF (CWI) broke out above resistance to new 52-week highs. Like US stocks, though, the ETF faced pressure all last week and on Friday broke back below its former resistance as well as its 50-day moving average (DMA). So, from the perspective of a US equity investor, it could have been worse.
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