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The Nasdaq is looking to make it four in a row today as US futures are higher across the board. Optimism on a possible breakthrough in infrastructure negotiations as well as some dovish commentary from the BoE are providing catalysts for today’s move. There’s a very big slate of economic data on the calendar, though, as well as a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak, so investors will have to navigate through all of these throughout the day. Early data released so far have generally been in line to weaker than expected, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury is still below 1.5% down to 1.48%.
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We’ve seen the pattern below for the semiconductor index in a lot of areas of the market lately, especially the ones that were big winners last year. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index isn’t far from its record highs in April, but it has essentially been in a sideways range for the last six months, a period in which it has traded in a relatively narrow range of 21.4%. As the group looks to bounce from here, if it can’t break out to new highs, or even stalls out short of its high a few days ago, look for technicians to start calling out a loose head and shoulders pattern.
Semiconductor stocks have become less volatile as the group has matured, but even the recent range is on the low side of the historical average. As shown in the chart below, the current six-month range for the stock is the narrowest since October 2018.