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Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
From where markets stand now, equities would finish the week with gains, after breadth in the S&P 500 came in positive yesterday for the third day in a row. That may not sound like much, but the last time the S&P 500’s A/D line was positive for three or more days was in the first week of May. To stay positive on the week, though, we’ll have to get through flash PMIs for the Manufacturing and Services sectors 15 minutes after the opening bell and then Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales at 10 AM. In Europe this morning, flash PMI readings generally were weaker than expected while UK Retail Sales rose more than expected. Equities on that side of the Atlantic are down between 0.5% and 1%, but the losses still aren’t enough to fully erase the week’s gains.
You’ve probably heard a lot lately about how the end of June can be a tough time for the equity market, and below we show how the numbers have played out since 1980. Usually, the S&P 500 declines from the close on 6/20 through month-end. The S&P 500’s median change during the period has been a decline of 0.09% with positive returns just 44% of the time. Even in years when the S&P 500 was up sharply YTD heading into the last days of June, performance was still on the weak side as the S&P 500’s median change from the close on 6/20 through month end was a decline of 0.23% with gains just 43% of the time.
The silver lining? Over the last four years, the S&P 500 has been up during this period each time, and in the last three years, it has rallied 3.1%, 3.0%, and 1.4%, respectively. As strong as certain seasonal tendencies can be over time, there are always exceptions.
To continue reading the rest of today’s morning note, where you’ll find much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.
