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“A ship is safe in harbor, but that’s not what ships are for.“ – William Shedd
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It took a day longer than normal, but at least equity markets are kicking off the week on a positive note. Obviously, where we end up today is an entirely different story. It doesn’t take much to erase a market rally these days, but at least there won’t be much in the way of economic data to derail things. The only two reports on the calendar are the Chicago Fed National Activity Index which was barely positive at +0.01 and was the lowest level since last September and Existing Home Sales which will be released at 10 AM Eastern. On the speaker front, Fed Presidents Mester and Barkin will be speaking this afternoon.
In today’s Morning Lineup, there’s a lot covered as we discuss overnight moves in Asian and European markets, the wild weekend in crypto, political trends in Latin America, and economic reports out of Asia and Europe.
Based on where the tracking ETF (SPY) is currently trading in the pre-market, the S&P 500 is poised to gap up 1.7% to kick off the new trading week. As shown in the chart below, if these gains hold through the opening bell it would be the largest upside gap to kick off a new trading week since “Pfizer Monday” on 11/9/20. While this week’s upside gap is the strongest since November 2020, it follows last week’s downside gap of 2.6% which was the largest downside gap to kick off a week in two years.
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