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“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra

As the Fed kicks off a two-day meeting to discuss interest rate policy, the major area of debate will no doubt surround inflation and whether the current surge we have experienced over the last few months ends up being temporary or persistent.  Unfortunately, the answer is not so clear-cut as both sides have good arguments to support their view.  That’s what makes a market, though, and tomorrow we’ll get a better idea of how wedded to the idea of temporary the FOMC really is.

It’s another quiet morning in financial markets today as US futures are little changed, yields are slightly lower, and even bitcoin is basically unchanged.  That’s likely to change as the day goes on. At 8:30, we’ll get May reports on Retail Sales, PPI, and Empire Manufacturing.  Then, at 9:15, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will be updated followed by Homebuilder Sentiment for June at 10 AM.

Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events, the latest economic news from around the world overnight, and the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.


It wasn’t looking that way an hour before the close yesterday but a last-hour rally helped to push the S&P 500 into positive territory for the day resulting in the 29th record closing high for the S&P 500 this year.  At the current rate, the S&P 500 is on pace for 64 record closing highs this year, which would eclipse the total of 62 in 2017 and put 2021 into third place overall for the most record closing highs in a given year.  The record was 77 back in 1995, while 1964 ranks second with 65.  While 64 is the current pace, where the year ends up could vary widely.  All it takes is a sell-off to knock the pace off track, while a string of higher closes could really add to the pace.  Wherever this number ends up on 12/31, we’ve already been in a very positive environment for equities.

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