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“Government has no wealth, and when a politician promises to give you something for nothing, he must first confiscate that wealth from you” – John Wayne

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

After record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq yesterday, there’s a negative bias this morning as European stocks are lower given the political uncertainties most notably in France where there were even rumors overnight that Macron would resign.  The only economic report on the calendar today was small business sentiment from the NFIB which came in better than expected. However, given tomorrow’s CPI report and the Fed Decision in the afternoon, we wouldn’t expect too much conviction today.

Apple (AAPL) finally unveiled its AI strategy yesterday and judging by the stock’s reaction, investors weren’t impressed.  While the stock was down marginally just before the conference started, it sold off even more once it started and more details started coming out. When the closing bell rang, the stock was near its lows and down just under 2% for the day.

The chart below shows the performance of AAPL on the first day of its WWDC conference each day since 2007 when the iPhone was first launched.  Yesterday’s 1.9% decline ranks as tied for the third-worst performance on the first day of the WWDC conference during that span.  The only two years where the first-day performance was worse was in 2007 (3.5%) and 2008 (-2.1%). While that ranking sounds ominous, we would also note that the stock has almost always traded lower on the first day of its WWDC conference (just four positive days in the last 18 years). Longer-term, from the close on the first day of the conference through year-end, the stock has been higher 70% of the time, and from the close on the first day of the conference to the start of the next year’s conference, AAPL stock has been higher more than 75% of the time. In other words, first impressions of the WWDC conference haven’t usually been correct.

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