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“If it’s in the papers, it’s in the price.” – Bill Miller

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Yesterday was the last big day for earnings season with roughly 200 companies posting Q1 numbers.  For the next couple of weeks until Walmart (WMT) and NVIDIA (NVDA) wrap things up, we’ll see fewer than 30-40 reports per day.

While we saw a large percentage of companies cutting or pulling guidance in the early weeks of this earnings season in mid-April, things have taken a much more positive turn this month.  The big uptick in positive guidance that we’ve seen so far in May has been enough to flip the guidance spread (% of companies raising minus lowering guidance) positive for the full earnings season.  Of the 1,551 companies that have reported since the season began on April 10th, 6% have raised guidance versus 5% that have lowered.  At the same time, 70% of companies have beaten consensus analyst EPS estimates, while 64% have beaten sales estimates.  Q1 has basically been an average to slightly better-than-average earnings season during a period where market volatility and “uncertainty” raged due to President Trump’s tariff policy.  In terms of share-price reactions, the average stock that has reported has averaged a one-day gain of 0.34% in reaction to the news.  That’s very positive relative to history as well.